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Thorb, 1 - (1 - C)^3 does take into account overlap. By subtracting the chance that your last three hits weren't a crit, it covers all possibilities that will proc flurry, including a string of 3 crits.
Your cycle way of dealing with instants is similar to mine. I prefer to go on instant cooldown because that isn't changable at all, while your cycle time can be.
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