Perhaps some more experienced warriors can explain to me why Sword spec is not considered over Axe spec. I must have a flaw in my calculations, because according to my numbers it provides more overall damage as well as the possibility for the biggest burst hit (2x crits).
Assume Weapon damage of D
(Critical Damage calculated at 1.6D (crit damage with 20% bonus to the 50% crit bonus from impale) + 0.6D (Deep Wounds))
At 20% crit rate w/o spec
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.8D + 0.2D*[1.6D + 0.6D]
[top] 0.8D + 0.44D
1.24D
Axe spec: 0.75D + 2.5*[1.6D + 0.6D]
[top] 0.75D + 0.55D
1.3D
Sword spec: 0.8D + 0.2*[1.6D + 0.6D] + 0.06*[0.8D + 0.2D*[1.6D + 0.6D]] = 1.24D + 0.0744D = 1.3144D
At 25% crit rate w/o spec
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.75D + 2.5D*[1.6D + 0.6D]
[top] 0.75D + 0.55D
1.3D
Axe spec: 0.7D + 0.3*[1.6D + 0.6D]
[top] 0.7D + 0.66D
1.36D
Sword spec: 0.75D + 2.5D*[1.6D + 0.6D] + 0.06*[0.75D + 2.5D*[1.6D + 0.6D]] = 1.3D + 0.078D = 1.378D
At 30% crit rate w/o spec
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.7D + 0.3*[1.6D + 0.6D]
[top] 0.7D + 0.66D
1.36D
Axe spec: 0.65D + 0.35*[1.6D + 0.6D]
[top] 0.65D + 0.77D
1.42D
Sword spec: 0.7D + 0.3*[1.6D + 0.6D] + 0.06*[0.7D + 0.3*[1.6D + 0.6D]] = 1.36D + 0.0816D = 1.4416D
What we see here is that with impale and deep wounds, axe spec gives a constant 6% damage increase to what your average base damage would be. Sword spec, however, scales up with crit rate providing an increasing bonus. Now lets's take 25% and 30% crit rates and see what happens when we add 195 and 390 resilience into the equation.
25% Crit rate vs 195 resilience target
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.9*(1.6D + 0.6D)]
[top] 0.8D + 0.396D
1.196D
Axe spec: 0.75D + 0.25*[0.9*(1.6D + 0.6D)]
[top] 0.75D + 0.495D
1.245D
Sword spec: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.9*(1.6D + 0.6D)] + 0.06*[0.8D + 0.2D*[0.9*(1.6D + 0.6D)]] = 1.196D + 0.07176D = 1.26776D
30% Crit rate vs 195 resilience target
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.75D + 0.25*[0.9*(1.6D + 0.6D)]
[top] 0.75D + 0.495D
1.245D
Axe spec: 0.7D + 0.3*[0.9*(1.6D + 0.6D)]
[top] 0.7D + 0.594D
1.294D
Sword spec: 0.75D + 0.25*[0.9*(1.6D + 0.6D)] + 0.06*[0.75D + 0.25*[0.9*(1.6D + 0.6D)]] = 1.245D + 0.0747D = 1.3197D
25% Crit rate vs 390 resilience target
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.85D + 0.15D*[0.8*(1.6D + 0.6D)]
[top] 0.85D + 0.264D
1.114D
Axe spec: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.8*(1.6D + 0.6D)]
[top] 0.8D + 0.352D
1.152D
Sword spec: 0.85D + 0.15D*[0.8*(1.6D + 0.6D)] + 0.06*[0.85D + 0.15D*[0.8*(1.6D + 0.6D)]] = 1.114D + 0.06684 = 1.1804D
30% Crit rate vs 390 resilience target
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.8*(1.6D + 0.6D)]
[top] 0.8D + 0.352D
1.152D
Axe spec: 0.75D + 0.25D*0.8*(1.6D + 0.6D)] = 0.75D + 0.44D = 1.19D
Sword spec: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.8*(1.6D + 0.6D)] + 0.06*[0.8D + 0.2D*[0.8*(1.6D + 0.6D)]] = 1.152D + 0.06912D = 1.22112D
Now there are of course other factors to consider. On a hit that's higher damage than a white hit, a critical strike is preferable to an extra swing. Conversely, a critical strike on a hamstring is no where near as good as an extra swing. Also, extra swings proc'ing from special moves give you rage that you would not normally have. Any corrections or updates to my formulas would be much appreciated.