Updated equations correcting the error I made in melee crit damage.
Assume Weapon damage of D
(Critical Damage calculated at 2.2D (crit damage with 20% bonus to the 100% crit bonus from impale) + 0.6D (Deep Wounds)) = 2.8D
At 20% crit rate w/o spec
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.8D + 0.2D*[2.8D]
[top] 0.8D + 0.56D
1.36D
Axe spec: 0.75D + 0.25*[2.8D]
[top] 0.75D + 0.75D
1.45D
Sword spec: 0.8D + 0.2*[2.8D] + 0.05*[0.8D + 0.2D*[2.8D]] = 1.36D + 0.068D = 1.428D
At 25% crit rate w/o spec
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.75D + 0.25*[2.8D]
[top] 0.75D + 0.75D
1.45D
Axe spec: 0.7D + 0.3*[2.8D]
[top] 0.7D + 0.84D
1.54D
Sword spec: 0.75D + 2.5D*[2.8D] + 0.05*[0.75D + 2.5D*[2.8D]] = 1.45D + 0.0725D = 1.5225D
At 30% crit rate w/o spec
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.7D + 0.3*[2.8D]
[top] 0.7D + 0.84D
1.54D
Axe spec: 0.65D + 0.35*[2.8D]
[top] 0.65D + 0.98D
1.63D
Sword spec: 0.7D + 0.3*[2.8D] + 0.05*[0.7D + 0.3*[2.8D]] = 1.54D + 0.077D = 1.617D
Now lets's take 25% and 30% crit rates and see what happens when we add 195 and 390 resilience into the equation.
25% Crit rate vs 195 resilience target
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.9*(2.8D)]
[top] 0.8D + 0.504D
1.304D
Axe spec: 0.75D + 0.25*[0.9*(2.8D)]
[top] 0.75D + 0.63D
1.38D
Sword spec: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.9*(2.8D)] + 0.05*[0.8D + 0.2D*[0.9*(2.8D)]] = 1.304D + 0.0652D = 1.3692D
30% Crit rate vs 195 resilience target
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.75D + 0.25*[0.9*(2.8D)]
[top] 0.75D + 0.63D
1.38D
Axe spec: 0.7D + 0.3*[0.9*(2.8D)]
[top] 0.7D + 0.756D
1.456D
Sword spec: 0.75D + 0.25*[0.9*(2.8D)] + 0.05*[0.75D + 0.25*[0.9*(2.8D)]] = 1.38D + 0.069D = 1.449D
25% Crit rate vs 390 resilience target
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.85D + 0.15D*[0.8*(2.8D)]
[top] 0.85D + 0.336D
1.186D
Axe spec: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.8*(2.8D)]
[top] 0.8D + 0.448D
1.248D
Sword spec: 0.85D + 0.15D*[0.8*(2.8D)] + 0.05*[0.85D + 0.15D*[0.8*(2.8D)]] = 1.186D + 0.0593 = 1.2453D
30% Crit rate vs 390 resilience target
None-spec'd average damage is: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.8*(2.8D)]
[top] 0.8D + 0.448D
1.248D
Axe spec: 0.75D + 0.25D*0.8*(2.8D)] = 0.75D + 0.56D = 1.31D
Sword spec: 0.8D + 0.2D*[0.8*(2.8D)] + 0.05*[0.8D + 0.2D*[0.8*(2.8D)]] = 1.248D + 0.0624D = 1.3104D