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My question is this: How do you do the math to work out the AVERAGE number of casts before you get a procs @ 15% chance?
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The weighted average of the number of casts times the probability it procs on that cast says that you will wait 6.66 casts on average.
cast number n: 1 2 3 4 5 6
probability of that cast procing it: .15 .128 .108 .092 .078 .067
The second line is given by (1-.85^n)-(1-.85^(n-1))
Extend that to infinity and take the weighted average.