Originally Posted by Caliane
that .59% doesnt sound right..
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Consider a 20 sided die (D20). Roll it once (or choose any number from 1-20). Now roll it 100 more times without that number coming up again. That's your odds of going 100 casts without a miss with only 95% hit.
Mathematically, it's expressed as 0.95^100 (or 95 to the 100th power), which works out to 0.0059205292203340254829249648824032, or ~0.592%.