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If you think the calculation was really biased, simply take a much higher dodge value and see what you get:
Assume 55% dodge/miss: 30% hits, 15% crushing, still using 10k raw mob damage yeilds 3733 damage. This represents a 3% increase in damage taken per hit, and is still less than the warrior's.
One thing to note about assuming a 10k raw hit: The lower the number, the more a warrior would gain from the static value of shield block. This makes them ideal for trash or weak, fast hitting bosses (dual wielders, usually). A boss like 2.0 Mulgar who could hit for 8-10k after armor would be more suited for a druid, as 250 damage off is far less than a higher % reduction. I haven't seen how hard he hits in 2.1 but it's apparently considerably less.
My guild is still finishing Karazhan, having had some member turnover, so I used 40% because that's about where I sit. We have no level 70 shamans at all, so I never have grace of air. I welcome any concerns of bias because I'm afraid you'd probably be right (I love druids) but I don't think there's any here.
I think the best reason for warriors remains shield wall, and while I now have both a pocket watch and the badge of tenacity, burst dodging isn't as reliable as simply reducing average hits by 75%.
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