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Originally Posted by Feorthas
Indeed; however, missing on a yellow attack costs you time and energy. Worst case, we're talking 2 seconds because you missed down to below the cost of an ability immediately after a tick.
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True, but even still suppose it costs you the 2 seconds. That would mean in my scenario you'd have a mangle crit and a miss cost you 60 energy whereas 2 mangle hits would still cost 80 energy, which still makes crit superior. If you didnt lost enough to require another tick before you can mangle its even better.
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Simplifying in that manner actually hurts the valuation of +Hit as, without glances, the average hit is always going to be the same damage as the next hit; with glances, the average hit that lands is lower and adding more +Hit actually ~raises~ your average hit more than one would expect (you're going from, say 60% Hits / 25% glances / 15% Avoid to 68.6% Hit / 25% Glance / 7.4% Avoid).
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As galzohar said with our without glancing it makes no difference. Take your scenario of: 60 hit /25 glance/ 15 avoid
This can become
68.6 hit/25 glance/7.4 avoid
or
51.4 hit/8.6 crit/25 glance/15 avoid
and it will be (neglecting PI) the same average damage. My point was a comparisson of Crit and Hit and their values with respect to one another not on how glancing/not glancing affects either (since it affects them both the same).
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Seriously, play around with the spreadsheet and see what happens; if it says "Crit is better than Hit at 0% Hit" then it's probably correct unless I screwed up how I model one or the other. Admittedly, hit is more valuable than the sheet models due to the fact that a yellow miss results in a CP/Energy loss (not to mention I never modeled a miss chance into rip), but it's fairly on target and should give you a decent idea of what is better/worse. Just remember to trust the values for the custom entries more than the other ones as they actually model stuff like Primal Fury properly (everything includes Pred. Instincts).
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I wasnt simply pulling numbers out of nowhere. The order of stat values I gave
(Agi>Str>AP>Crit rating>Haste rating>hit rating>FCS) is the order (assuming equivalent item budget) that I get from both Emmerald's and Lolaan's spreadsheets which are both complete models of standard feral attack patterns. Even Tangedyn's program back in the day showed the hit was significantly inferior to crit considering equal values (ie 1% of each).