Originally Posted by Solstice
Having monitored the WWS for myself and another feral druid over several weeks of raiding now, I can attest that crit % is consistently lower for yellow attacks than for white attacks when equipped with less than 8.6% hit, and the difference becomes notably more apparent with lower levels of +hit. To me this is a pretty clear indication of a two roll system on yellow attacks, and personally I'm satisfied that this is indeed how it works.
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Thanks a lot for this, I'll update to take this into account.
With this in mind, +hit (and FCR) becomes significantly more favorable, as Crit % on specials (CS%) becomes (Crit % x (100 - Miss %)).
So for example,
at 0% Hit and X% Crit, CS% = 0.914X
and at 1% Hit, CS% = 0.924X
With say 40% crit that's an increase of 0.4% CS per +1% hit which provides a fairly significant increase in dps, all things considered.
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This part I'm not convinced by. Roughly speaking, I've assumed that if you miss a yellow attack then you wait 0.7 seconds (for a 40 energy attack) and try again, and thus get another shot at critting.
However there will be an increase to the worth of +hit, because a single-roll system with refunds on misses inflates your effective crit rate when you miss a lot. Extreme example: 50% crit, 50% miss, on average it takes you 2 attempts to land an attack, so the energy cost is 118% of normal and your effective crit rate is 100%. Adding +hit will
reduce your DPS. This effect is represented in my model by reducing the energy cost of attacks by a proportion of your miss rate, while leaving crit damage unchanged.
EDIT: better way of saying this - in a single roll system with refunds, your attacks cost less energy on average, if you miss a lot. Since crit rate is unaffected by miss rate, and energy cost goes down with more misses, DPE of crits goes up and so crit rating is overvalued.
It's possible this is just another way of looking at the same thing, I haven't had my coffee yet
