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Old 06/24/07, 1:21 AM   #57
Solstice
Piston Honda
 
Night Elf Druid
 
Sylvanas (EU)
Heh, well it depends what you deem to be "significant". I'd argue that an extra 0.4% crit on specials (non-finishers) per 1% hit is more than "slightly" better than none. I agree that it's not effecting the point in question but nevertheless it's a fairly notable factor when determining how much weight to put on +hit, at least for me.

However there will be an increase to the worth of +hit, because a single-roll system with refunds on misses inflates your effective crit rate when you miss a lot. Extreme example: 50% crit, 50% miss, on average it takes you 2 attempts to land an attack, so the energy cost is 118% of normal and your effective crit rate is 100%. Adding +hit will reduce your DPS. This effect is represented in my model by reducing the energy cost of attacks by a proportion of your miss rate, while leaving crit damage unchanged.
EDIT: better way of saying this - in a single roll system with refunds, your attacks cost less energy on average, if you miss a lot. Since crit rate is unaffected by miss rate, and energy cost goes down with more misses, DPE of crits goes up and so crit rating is overvalued.
Hmm, interesting. So wait, let me check I'm understanding this correctly.

In a single roll system, increasing +hit actually reduces your effective crit, because if you score a hit rather than a miss then you can't then use 82% of the same "lump" of energy to try and land a crit. So DPE of crits effectively increases as you reduce your chance to hit.

Inversely, in a two roll system increasing +hit increases your effective crit because you can't crit if you can't hit - there's a roll for hit/miss/dodge (block/parry) and on hit there's another roll for crit/non-crit. Therefore you can't "re-use" the energy recouped from a miss in order to crit as miss and crit aren't on the same table.

This seems to provide some logical explanation as to why Blizz chose to implement a 2 roll system for specials.

While it's interesting to try and model the relative value of +hit compared to other stats, I think there's limited value in the results as there are simply too many permutations. Some of them have already been mentioned, such as clearcast procs, missed finishers, missed mangles causing reduced rip ticks, etc. These are possible (although probably not easy) to model. But then there's the human element, which will vary from player to player and is not something that you can really quantify. For example things like missing a mangle then shredding without the debuff up, or missing a shred when on 4cp and ripping before you notice, or missing a special at 50+ energy and powershifting.

So while I don't doubt your figures I don't think that you can look at them and deduce that say, "1 strength = 0.7 hit" in terms of raw dps - while this might be true in theory, in practice there are other factors involved that can't be modeled which make +hit more valuable. My gut feeling is that, point for point, +hit is the most valuable dps stat right up to 8.6%.
 
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