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Doesn't arcane/fire (spell power + ignite) get 1.75X1.4=2.45 crits? How come it's 2.4545 with the gem? did you mean 254.45? Fits your theory much better looked like you just swapped 2 digits ;p
So for a 33/28 mage this would be the same DPS increase as increasing crit chance by 3.591 if you have 38% crit in full buffs, which is equivalent to 79.3 crit rating or 58 spell damage.
Same math for 10/48/3 makes it worth 38.7 spell damage. For comparison the 5% chance to 1/2 cast time is worth 2.5% haste which is equal in terms of DPS (but not DPM) to 51 spell damage with my gear (~1250-1300 spell damage with full buffs/pots/etc). Not to mention the extra damage you can get by not matching the requirements brings the crit gem to the top of the list of mage gems.
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