Originally Posted by Solstice
Heh, well it depends what you deem to be "significant". I'd argue that an extra 0.4% crit on specials (non-finishers) per 1% hit is more than "slightly" better than none. I agree that it's not effecting the point in question but nevertheless it's a fairly notable factor when determining how much weight to put on +hit, at least for me.
Hmm, interesting. So wait, let me check I'm understanding this correctly.
In a single roll system, increasing +hit actually reduces your effective crit, because if you score a hit rather than a miss then you can't then use 82% of the same "lump" of energy to try and land a crit. So DPE of crits effectively increases as you reduce your chance to hit.
Inversely, in a two roll system increasing +hit increases your effective crit because you can't crit if you can't hit - there's a roll for hit/miss/dodge (block/parry) and on hit there's another roll for crit/non-crit. Therefore you can't "re-use" the energy recouped from a miss in order to crit as miss and crit aren't on the same table.
This seems to provide some logical explanation as to why Blizz chose to implement a 2 roll system for specials.
While it's interesting to try and model the relative value of +hit compared to other stats, I think there's limited value in the results as there are simply too many permutations. Some of them have already been mentioned, such as clearcast procs, missed finishers, missed mangles causing reduced rip ticks, etc. These are possible (although probably not easy) to model. But then there's the human element, which will vary from player to player and is not something that you can really quantify. For example things like missing a mangle then shredding without the debuff up, or missing a shred when on 4cp and ripping before you notice, or missing a special at 50+ energy and powershifting.
So while I don't doubt your figures I don't think that you can look at them and deduce that say, "1 strength = 0.7 hit" in terms of raw dps - while this might be true in theory, in practice there are other factors involved that can't be modeled which make +hit more valuable. My gut feeling is that, point for point, +hit is the most valuable dps stat right up to 8.6%.
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I'm not sure this makes any sense at all. You are claiming that your chance to crit increases if you've missed an attack? You are realizing that if you havea 30% chance to crit, and you miss, you've potentially (about 1/3rd of the time) missed a critical strike.
I would equate this to purchasing lottery tickets. If you have a 1 in 1,000,000 chance to win the lottery, and you've purchased 999,999 tickets, the next ticket you purchase still has a 1 in 1,000,000 chance to win. Basic statistics. Think of it this way: if you miss, you lose energy. If you hit, you might hit or you might crit. I don't think there's any way you can dice the numbers to prove that +hit reduces your DPS, it might appear you are doing so, but all things factored in you will break even, even if you get 2 chances to crit on the same "chunk of energy".