Originally Posted by Chimp
Assuming Sword spec procs can be dodged/parried, then on targets with more than 15% dodge/parry/miss combined, Axe spec actually comes out top. Why? Because if you don't hit the target you can't get an extra swing. And even if you hit the target and get an extra swing it can still be dodged/parried/miss. Whereas the extra crit % will successfully convert a hit into more dmg irrespective of miss/dodge/parry (unless you are attacking a target with extreme avoidance - i.e rogue with evasion).
* NOTE: I've not been Sword spec since the most recent changes so I'm not actually sure if if Sword spec procs can actually be dodged etc - someone who is sword spec now would need to confirm that for me.
See www.ryanhannah.plus.com/temp.xls for calculations. Edit - the sheet was put together really quickly, so please feel free to point out if i've made any miscalculations.
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In your spread sheet axe spec has a constant 10% dodge/parry/miss rate regardless of the value entered in B8. Hamstring hits for 63 not 70 according to thottbot. Resiliance crit damage mitigation is actually greater then intended - it removes the intended percentage from impale and normal crit damage (IE 1.0909 times greater crit damage reduction). Your yellow attacks are not normalized to 3.4s for attack power and use a 3.6x multiplier.
Sorry for being so anal; I found those error only because I have a sheet of my own and I played around with them until they matched.
With these updates you get sword spec ~= axe spec around 19% avoidance (dodge/parry/miss). To put this in perspective your average pally is going to have ~9% avoidance, average warrior is going to have ~15%, average rogue 35%.
So from a DPS point of view, against most things (priests, pallies, warlocks, etc) sword specialization is better. Against rogues, feral druids and protection warriors sword spec is worse.
From a 2s or 3s arena point of view, if the pally you are trying to kill is at low health and is trying to heal himself and your intercept and pummel are cooling down, sword/axe spec has a 5% chance of helping you kill him before he heals, while mace spec has a ~10% chance of stunning him.
Infused: I use the Merciless Gladiator Mace, you still get lots of stuns because mace spec is near 10% while Deep Thunder is near 1-2%. I still use deep thunder when I'm fighting an enemy with good kiting abilities (frost mages) because the slower attack speed is better (Deep Thunder has almost the same base damage as merciless gladiators but merciless gladiators is 0.2s faster).
Ranking the maces would be:
Stormhearld
Merciless Glad
Deep Thunder