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Fire, particularly in cases where we're talking of 80-100 casts, has a tendency to be a little peculiar with crit chance. Sometimes it's 10% above, sometimes it's 10% below, the sample size needs to be large to avoid this problem. Arcane is much better in this respect, because in the same fight which would vouch 80 fireballs from a fire mage the arcane mage would see over 300 missiles, making statistics a lot more stable. The average damage I'm assuming is also affected by this; More crit will compound the (total dmg/number of casts) average, as will what the poster in the Mage TBC thread noted: Dying before molten fury works is a disaster for mage dps, netting in a huge average loss.
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