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Bear tanking progression is an interesting one.
I think SBlock crush immunity and Defensive Stance (and the associated imp talent, i.e. magic damage) is now mainly how we're lagging behind. Another major factor is encounter design and both are slightly related. Add in a dash of itemization disparity (specifically the lack of crafted resist gear for Frost and Nature) and you get the current situation.
I don't have any BT/Hyjal experience, but from what I understand of all the SSC/TK level encounters you can safely have a Druid "MT" everything aside from the Kael'thas fight (the encounter necessitates the user of the legendary shield I believe?).
Maulgar / Gruul - trivial for an appropriately geared Druid.
Magtheridon - as above.
Hydross - you can build a crit immune 295 resist set using crafted jewellery and AH greens. What hurts here is the 16% extra damage you take, and the fact that to meet crit immunity and the resist requirement, you take a hit in threat generation due to the amount of slots you have to swap. Whereas, a Warrior swaps in much fewer slots due to the excellent crafted resist gear. But it's still not impossible for us.
Lurker - melee mob, fairly trivial.
Leotheras - melee mob, perhaps somewhat Druid friendly (?) because of our snap aggro after WW, we can contribute dps in Cat Form on Demon phase, arguably kill our inner Demon easier (if the Warrior messes up Spell Reflect).
Karathress - 16% extra damage from the random magical effects, but otherwise nothing special. Tidalvess favors a Druid.
Morogrim - arguably one that favors a Druid early in progression levels (Earthquake eats SBlock charges I believe?) but the gap closes as Warriors start to get closer and closer to passive crush immunity.
Vashj - my guild has only spent half a night attempting her, but so far (phase 2, two pylons down) I can't see any major disadvantage to having a Druid. And if your Paladins mess up the BoF rotation, or if you don't have enough of them to maintain 100% uptime, we can break the root easily while she's running out of range to shoot and not risk taking casterform hits (even less so in 2.3 with the /cancelform instashifts).
Al'ar - melt armor technically affects us worse that it does Warriors, but we can favor a higher dodge set for this fight.
Void Reaver - Druids shine here anyway due to our superb OT threat. Mitigation wise it's trivial for both.
Solarian - we can sort of stay ahead of dps going all out (at the start, gets harder over time) using well timed taunt > rage dumps but that's neither here nor there (only for her sporadic melee hits, I understand Arcane Missiles are random). Both of us are similarly effective in helping corral adds for aoe. Warriors might have a slight advantage with being able to Shield Bash Priest heals?
Kael'thas - tough luck Druids =(
Anyway, point being, if you're running a Druid MT for whatever reason, you won't be significantly hampered until you get to Kael, and then maybe in BT/Hyjal when Warrior's passive mitigation (armor + SBlock use) pushes them further ahead. By how far? I'm not quite sure, I guess I'll know when I get there. BT/Hyjal also have a few encounters which make it impossible for Druids to tank them? Correct me if I'm wrong on these.
With the 2.3 Fear Ward changes, Archimonde is one that'll require either a 6 Priest rotation + PvP trinket failsafe, or a stance dancing Warrior.
And apparently Illidan has a Shear ability that needs well timed SBlock to survive?
Are there any other encounters in BT/Hyjal that make it impossible for a Druid to MT successfully?
~Anyway. Moving forward from this, what's the solution? We've been at or near the armor cap since mid-T4 level, our dodge can also reach fairly high values where we're at the stage we need to consider dropping avoidance to get a reasonable rage influx (arguably not as badly as Warriors, since we generate significantly more from dmg + Primal Fury). Packing on the Stamina just seems unnecessary.
Secondly, how do we close the gap that SBlock and Defensive Stance create?
To begin with, we need itemization parity. If we can have crafted FR gear, why not NR and FrR leather? They had both at level 60 for AQ40 and Naxx, though of course those were aimed at Rogues. If any encounters require tanks to wear resist gear, options need to exist at the plate and leather level, without fail.
SBlock. Great mechanic to add some skill to tanking, and very effective mitigation. We do need some kind of protection again crushings, or at least chain crushings. If not on gear, maybe via talents or something. I'd love to see something like "After being victim to a crushing blow, the Druid enters a state of heightened reflexes, making the next x strikes against him unable to crush."
Defensive Stance in light of magic damage. This one we can probably leave alone.
I remember reading something at the Blizzcon where they said they weren't quite happy with the randomness of crushing blows, and plan to alter the mechanic drastically (probably in WotlK?). So I'd be very interested to see what they have in mind.
Re: the Arena gloves bonus. I can buy that explanation, I guess my lack of Arena experience shows =p
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