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Simply think it is that most people discover that raiding isn't something can sustained for long term; while still keeping other more 'important' hobbies and a healthy social life in the very first instance they really work to learn and beat (not counting beeing powered through a place by people who did it before). Don't think it matters all that much if its a 10 man or a 25 man.
For this expansion for most people its after Karazhan the intresst to keep progressing in raids dies out. But don't think its the instance. Its simply the progression model with months after months of grinding that takes its toll. Most people would likely lose intresst and stop raiding regardless of what the first instance was.
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