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So I kept thinking about this and decided that just for the hell of it, I'd actually make a real comparison between expertise and dodge. DISCLAIMER: Assuming my math is right, this is only true for the specific warrior from my guild that I armoried, using a 1.6 speed weapon, 16.5% dodge, 16.3% parry, 11.5% miss, and against a boss with a 2.5 speed attack. The actual relationship will vary slightly depending on a specific tank's avoidance, and will vary significantly more depending on the type of tank (warrior vs. bear vs. paladin), and the attack speed of the boss. Insert entire shaker full of salt grains. (And also remember that for the purpose of calculations, I'm ignoring that expertise rating is only useful in chunks of ~4.)
For every 1 expertise (3.94 rating) you have, the boss's parry chance gets reduced by 0.25%. To fully eliminate parry, and ultimately reduce the average haste from parries to 0, you'd need 11.2/0.25 = 45 expertise, or 178 expertise rating. Every point of expertise will give 8.6/45 = 0.19% reduced damage for a warrior (~0.05% per rating).
If you want to compare to dodge, it gets even more complicated. Dodge is hard to calculate, because the actual relative amount of reduced damage per 1% dodge depends on the tank's current avoidance. For example, 1% dodge for a hypothetical warrior with 0% miss, 0% dodge, and 0% parry reduces the total amount of damage he will take by 1%. On the other hand, if you have a warrior with 20% dodge, 20% parry, and 10% miss (50% total avoidance), adding 1% dodge to the table is twice as effective, reducing total damage taken by 2%. Let's take some generic warrior (by that, I mean our MT in mostly ZA and badge gear, with a few leftover Kara pieces) with, say, 16.5% dodge, 16.3% parry, and 11.5% miss, or 44.3% avoidance. 1% dodge gives him 1.8% damage reduction over time. At 18.92 rating per 1% dodge, that means dodge is worth 0.095% damage reduction per rating, roughly twice that of expertise. For this specific warrior, expertise rating yields the increased threat effect it's intended for, as well as HALF the amount of mitigation as dodge rating. HOWEVER, this "mitigation" from expertise ONLY effects the damage the boss will do with its autoattack, whereas if it has special physical abilities that can be dodged, dodge will pull far away from expertise in terms of mitigation.
Comparing it to defense rating would be obnoxiously complicated due to trying to factor in block. Armor comparisons are pretty easy but change significantly by individual, so can be calculated using the "~0.05% per rating" number and comparing to your specific amount of armor.
I really hope no one takes this as "SWEET, expertise gives half as much avoidance as dodge!" and runs with it. You still can't make a direct comparison without caveat after caveat, and adjusting it from fight to fight, which is the point I'm trying to make.
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