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I haven't calculated it all out yet, but I have a very rough idea on a way to approach this problem.
It occurs to me that hit-parry-parry-hit (I get hit once, the boss parries me twice, and his next hit comes really quickly and lands, hereafter referred to as a gib) approaches the severity of taking a critical hit. Obviously we'd like to make sure this doesn't happen. So, what are the chances of getting a gib?
For any given boss attack, the chance that this attack will start a gib sequence is 1-(hit^2*parry^2), where hit is the boss' chance to hit me, and parry is his chance to parry me.
So the incremental value of dodge can be found by taking the derivative:
dhit/dgib = -2*hit*parry^2
Likewise with expertise:
dparry/dgib = -2*hit^2*parry
And divide to compare them to one another:
dhit/-dparry = -parry/hit
so at 10% parry and 50% hit, -1% parry = 5% dodge
and at 5% parry and 50% hit, -1% parry = 10% dodge
It seems that we have increasing returns on the gib-prevention aspect of expertise.
Of course, in the end this is just skirting around the issue. The real issue is how important is gib-prevention? I'd really like to spend more time on the topic but that's my extremely rough initial stab at it.
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