Originally Posted by Denogran
But to assume it's a hermetically sealed group is a bit naive, no? I'm not great at arena by any means - usually right around 1500 with my lock/pally 2v2, and I tend to win most all of my matches at 1480, and lose most all of my matches at 1530. If you took away the sub 1500 teams so that I was only playing 1500-1530 teams, I'd start to lose a lot more than I won, which would inexorably drive my rating down. In turn, the teams that were beating me at 1530 to stay at 1550 would now get less points for beating me, and their ratings would drop. Eventually, all the ratings would depress.
Now, if you were only playing at your level, and you alternated winning and losing each game, then no, dropping the bottom out wouldn't have any effect. But in my experience that hasn't been the case( I don't have any experience at higher levels though, so I might be mistaken ).
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The one problem with your example is that if you currently lose most games at 1530, then you really aren't a 1530 rating, you are more likely a 1500. If everyone below 1500 suddenly quit, so you were literally the last placed team in the entire Battlegroup, you might lose a few games dropping you to 1450, but at that point winning two games would get you back those points (consdering your opponents would be all 1500 or greater). An equalibrium would again form as long as nobody new entered the system.
Just look at the 2000+ rated teams that have been at that ranking for a number of weeks, their overall record might be .750 win percentage, but their most recent week will be approximately .500.