Originally Posted by Siddown
The one problem with your example is that if you currently lose most games at 1530, then you really aren't a 1530 rating, you are more likely a 1500. If everyone below 1500 suddenly quit, so you were literally the last placed team in the entire Battlegroup, you might lose a few games dropping you to 1450, but at that point winning two games would get you back those points (consdering your opponents would be all 1500 or greater). An equalibrium would again form as long as nobody new entered the system.
Just look at the 2000+ rated teams that have been at that ranking for a number of weeks, their overall record might be .750 win percentage, but their most recent week will be approximately .500.
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Ya, we're a 1500 team, I'm just saying that mid-play it fluctuates between 1460 and 1550, generally closer to 1500. If everyone below 1500 dropped out, and we lost a majority of our games (because that's what we do against teams ranked higher than us, in my experience), then our rating will drop, and continue to drop. My rating doesn't stay static right now because I keep beating other 1500 teams, it stays static because when I drop below a certain point I can win to boost myself back up, and when I win past a certain point I get beaten which drops me down. I think if you were to look at the 2000k teams, you'd see that their win percentage is high versus teams ranked worse than them, and low versus teams ranked higher than them, giving them an average of a .500 team.
Originally Posted by Siddown
That's simply not true, not in a closed system. Every team starts at 1500, therefore 1500 is the medium. Assuming nobody drops out and nobody new is added, 1500 will be the average score no matter how many games you play (now that queue dodging isn't possible). If you then drop everyone who has less than a 2000 ranking, suddenly something like 2150 or 2250 will become the new "Average", assuming nobody new gets added or taken away, this is your new medium. Some teams will inevitably drop below 2000, maybe even down as low as 1900, but if they were a true representation of a 2000 team, that would be temporary and they'd eventually get back to 2000 as they gained more and more points for a win and lose less and less for a loss.
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This is only true if no team ever beats teams worse than them once everything is settled. If your team is an even ranking because you win 5 and lose 5 against your exact level (the hermetically sealed example of above), then sure, it won't change. But if you're in a static rating slot because you're 3-0 against teams with a lower rating, 2-2 against teams with the same rating and 0-3 against teams with a higher rating, then removing those lower rated teams takes you from a 5-5 record to at best a 4-6 record (assuming you go 4-3 against teams your own rating and 0-3 against teams with higher). If that's the scenario, and it's certainly been for my low-level arena teams 1200-1500 range( one week our only 5v5 win was because the opposing team tried to kill my prot pally first...), then the overall ratings of the entire system will gradually fall.