Alvira, I think you've done a great overview on what is the currently accepted state of Arcane and what is up for discussion. Not to reinvent the wheel I'll copy this port regarding fillers for AB spam so that we have some framework under which to do the analysis.
Source:
[Mage] TC after 2.3
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Originally Posted by Kavan
To estimate how valuable a cycle is in combination with AB spam let's say we have total time T, t spent on cycle, T-t on AB spam, M total mana. Then we have:
M = t * cyclemps + (T-t) * abmps
total damage = t * cycledps + (T-t) * abdps
Solving for t we get:
M = t * (cyclemps - abmps) + T * abmps
t = (M - T * abmps) / (cyclemps - abmps)
total damage = (M - T * abmps) * (cycledps - abdps) / (cyclemps - abmps) + T * abdps
Let's call (cycledps - abdps) / (cyclemps - abmps) tradeoff coefficient. We're assuming that M < T * abmps, otherwise we could AB spam all time. So the lower tradeoff coefficient is the higher total damage is.
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Rawr.Mage will properly select the correct filler to use given the circumstances, but as you said it is a theorycrafting tool that has to make some assumptions and it is important to validate how those solutions translate to the issues one encounters in real raid situations.
One of my particular items of interest currently is the following. For deep arcane spec with relatively high amount of haste I'm encountering the following situation. Heroism+AP+IV+AB spam is no longer optimal and it is required to desync AP and IV. Rawr is suggesting that the following should be the optimal way to desync it:
Heroism+Icy Veins+ABAM3FrBScCC: 20.00 sec
Heroism+Arcane Power+Hex Shrunken Head+Arcane Blast: 15.00 sec
Heroism+Hex Shrunken Head+Arcane Blast: 5.00 sec
So using both AP and IV during heroism one after another, AB spam on AP and cycle on IV. The obvious problem where assumptions from theory no longer hold is that that cycle does not fit perfectly into that time span. Theory assumes averages for cycles and that they can be partitioned as much as needed. The particual cycle used there is the normal (AB-AM)x3+FrB except that due to haste it is expanded into (AB-AM)x3+AM+FrB.
So the question now is what subset of spells to use during the IV portion of Heroism that would match that cycle as closely as possible in dps/dpm terms or even exceed it if possible. The numbers are at around 1.73 casting speed, so we're fitting around 35 seconds of unhasted spells worth.
Anyway, just some food for thought.