My reading of metamorphosis is a pure PvP talent. The idea would seem to be wait until you're about to die, morph and go on a 45s rampage.
I'll probably raid something like
0/48/23.
Pitiful attempt at math, assuming 5 strikes after buff is refreshed (2, 4, 6, 8, 10)
1 pt, 07% hit ergo 93% miss, P(M*5) = 93% **5 = 69.57%
2 pt, 14% hit ergo 86% miss, P(M*5) = 86% **5 = 47.04%
3 pt, 21% hit ergo 79% miss, P(M*5) = 79% **5 = 30.77%
4 pt, 28% hit ergo 72% miss, P(M*5) = 72% **5 = 19.35%
5 pt, 35% hit ergo 65% miss, P(M*5) = 65% **5 = 11.60%
So 3/5 will have a fair downtime on that buff, it depends how much you want that threat reduction.
It's also possible the 5th strike won't land in time dramatically increasing the downtime.
P(0.3)*P(H*3) of a (3*5 0 1 2) cycle;
P(0.7) of a (3*8) cycle;
assuming P(H*3) = 1 we see upper bound 3*5+1+2 = 18/8% = 2.25% increase on first cycle
3% on second suggests overall upper bound 2.775% actual group buff, I *guess* at an actual as low as 2%.
Lower bound 0% of course since it may never proc, average gets icky.
The upper bound assumption becomes looser as P(M) increases.
Most likely of all, Blizz tweak the numbers between now and release ^^;
I agree Affl will probably be the Naxx build of choice, something like
this.
I'm very curious how much single target DPS haunt will offer.
Currently raiding as demo, looking forward to ruin
