Originally Posted by rutiene
Also, to add to this, even though we say that we have a 40% crit 'chance', we also have to remember that this crit chance is funneled through a mathematical algorithm and that in code nothing is actually by chance. Over a long boss fight, your actual crit % will not differ from your stat by more than 1%.
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Actually, this is not nearly true.
The other day, I was farming basilisks, just chain sb + drain soul for a few shards. After a number of kills (15-ish) I realized I hadn't seen very many big numbers, meaning I hadn't crit much. I run with 24.58% tooltip crit, so 29.58% destro crit. Thankfully, I had just reset my recount, so I pulled up the detail window for my dps, and specifically Shadowbolt. After a few more kills, I had totalled 40 shadowbolts with 3 crits. That's a meager 7.5% critrate. I kept killing and got a few crits in a row, and before I left, I think I had totalled 60 shadowbolts and ~10 crits, or about 17% crit.
So obviously, you can have very bad crit streaks. A long boss fight
should see this approach your tooltip crit, but it's entirely within the realm of probability to have a bad crit streak for the entire bossfight, and end with 10% effective crit rate.
I'm also seen the opposite happen, on an Illidan kill recently, when I was in SR gear. Considerably lower critrate, and yet I was topping the dps for the first phase because I couldn't get anything but crits (seemingly, anyway). I think I ended that phase with roughly 50% crits.
So it obviously goes both ways, and is entirely possible to go one way for an entire fight. Just the rules (odds?) of chance.