Edit: Nevermind, having never played a priest I wasn't aware of inspiration, which is the exact same buff and they don't stack. So don't bother reading the below...
Originally Posted by Kortar
With 10% base critical, and +3000 healing Healing Wave will heal (3250 + (1.1071 * 3000)) * 1.1 * 1.18 * (1 + (0.24 * 1.4)) assuming the free crit heal lands on the tank. The total is 11395 healing.
With the same stats, Greater Heal will heal (4270 + (1.0571 * 3000) * 1.1 * 1.15 * (1 + (0.24 * 0.5)) assuming that the tank is low enough to trigger Test of Faith (almost certain given our assumption that he can usefully receive a 240% Healing Wave critical and is the lowest health in the raid when it lands). The total is 10543 healing.
Healing Wave has a cast time of 2.5s and a post-talent cost of 1520. Greater Heal has an effective cast time of 1.64s (given IHC haste up-time based on Greater Heal cycle) and a post-talent cost of 921.
That gives Healing Wave 4558 hps @ 7.49 hpm while Greater Heal has 6429 hps @ 11.45 hpm.
I'm not trying to get into a "Priests roxxor, Shaman suxxor" debate here. I'm trying to illustrate that what people are assuming about the nature of the talents has to be taken in the context of what all the various healers get.
Right now, empowerment talents are additive with coefficient. What they will probably do is change the base coefficients of healing spells to being around 60% more than they are now. Note also that pre-existing Empowerment talents appear to be getting buffed - in all likelihood, we're a build or two away from the Priest's Empowerment talent being raised to 40% empowerment (as they have already done with the Druid empowerment talents).
With 24% critical (10% base + 14% talents), the cost reduction on Elemental Focus for heals is approximately 16.89%. This would raise the hpm in the above example to around 8.76 (still substantially lower than 11.45 hpm from Greater Heal).
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Maybe it is burried in the numbers but I still don't see where you are taking into account Ancestral Fortitude. Even if the final numbers work out the way that you suggest, a consistent 25% armor buff is so huge I find it difficult to imagine NOT having at least one resto sham in every raid stack crit and spam heals on the tank (HW,LHW, CH, whatever). Even if the HPS/HPM isn't as large as for a preist, if having a resto sham is at all possible in the raid, I don't see how, in any fight where a tank is taking a large amount of damage, having that buff up consistently won't be one of the first assignments for a resto sham. Also, I'm not simply talking about healing that won't have to occur because the tank has an extra 25% armor, but also how much the spikey-ness is dampened in a fight. On my guild's MT that's about an extra 5,000 armor, and we're only 1/6 sunwell. Who know's that that will grow to with just Nax level-80 epics and then beyond.
So yes, even if everything stays the same and preists put out a lot better number main tank healing, unless they have a buff that won't stack with ancestral fortitude and given the fact that shaman will most likely have a lot more crit gear, I still think there will be strong motivations to have at least one shaman healing the tank. Now, whether that is through spamming chain heals and hopeing they actually have someone to bounce to, or taking advantage of the new HW/LHW talents, that could be a discussion worth having.