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The equation is more complicated then that, I believe. You'll need an extra term to consider lava burst, and the uptime of Clearcasting. Clearcasting is up after a crit for a minimum of 2 seconds, with enough spell haste to drop LB down to a 1 second cast, and a maximum of 4 seconds. Also, Lavaburst will be able to guarantee a crit with proper flame shock usage. So it will end up being a function of crit %, haste, and rotation. Also, consider 9%(10% for alliance) spell hit from 51/0/20. This will factor into necessary uptime for 99% hit.
But again, this basically all comes down to gear. If our gear has spell hit on it, the talent is useless, if not then it becomes useful.
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