Originally Posted by Phlis
The equation is more complicated then that, I believe. You'll need an extra term to consider lava burst, and the uptime of Clearcasting. Clearcasting is up after a crit for a minimum of 2 seconds, with enough spell haste to drop LB down to a 1 second cast, and a maximum of 4 seconds. Also, Lavaburst will be able to guarantee a crit with proper flame shock usage. So it will end up being a function of crit %, haste, and rotation. Also, consider 9%(10% for alliance) spell hit from 51/0/20. This will factor into necessary uptime for 99% hit.
But again, this basically all comes down to gear. If our gear has spell hit on it, the talent is useless, if not then it becomes useful.
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Good point I had forgotten about lava burst crit. I find it highly unlikely that hit will be forced on an ele shaman since the resto gear would never have any on it. Simply look at current resto gear and change the +heal to pure spell dmg and you find resto gear is actually quite good for ele. I would assume gear would stay along the same lines. Even if there are ele and resto peices I think they will be alot more interchanginable than they currently are. Really the only stat that would differentitate resto and ele gear would be hit (since its looking like crit will be good for resto now) so its quite possible all ele/resto gear will be crit heavy and be very light (possibly none) on hit.