Originally Posted by Lucitron
Lava Burst is just a modification on your average crit chance, all depending on how often you will be able to cast it. If it is profitable to terminate Flame Shock early, then you will launch Lava Burst roughly every 6th second. If it is more profitable to have Flame Shock running, then it is more like every 12th second.
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Lava Burst has an 8s cooldown.
I've designed the basic spreadsheet and so far, the dps output looks very promising, easily compared to that of a fire mage.
2000+dmg, 40% crit, CoE on target, Shaman and mage in same group (meaning mage gets shaman's buffs), both hit capped:
Shaman, assuming FS-CL-LB-LB-LB-LaB rotation (75% of the Flame Shock's dot is used): 2308.8 dps
Mage, assuming Fireball spam (someone else uses Scorch to keep debuff up; I'm assuming Molten Fury represents 4% of total dps, though, as we know, cooldowns are usually popped in the last 20% of the fight for mage group): 2478.9
Mage, assuming Fireball spam (same as above, but no shaman in group): 2325.5
So, the dps difference between shaman and mage (in same group) is 7.37%. Shaman adds 153.4 dps to the mage, which yields up a damage difference of 6.19%. With three such mages (and a shadow priest) in group, the total shaman dps contribution is 2769 dps or 111.7% as much as the mage. Note that I am completely ignoring Heroism, hit portion of Totem of Wrath, potential drums and the offhealing + other support possibility of the elemental shaman.
In other words, I doubt we have to fear for our raid spots, provided things remain as they are. However, I do agree that there should be an incentive for dpsing, similar to enhancement, or elemental shaman might only be taken into many raids as offhealer with dps support.