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Except you're neglecting the fact that dodge also protects you from the preceeding (non-parry flurried) hits and possibly saves shieldblock charges. Also dodge prevents special attacks from landing on you. If you were really comparing the two stats you would have to apply your dodge rate to all mob attacks in the series you're analyzing and you would need to factor the tank's swingspeed and special attacks into the equation. It's not a simple calculation.
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No, it's very simple. You only have to take into account one special case: when you do not avoid an attack followed by a parry-hasted attack. That's it. Shield block charges don't matter here; when you get parry gibbed is not when you get crushed, it's when you get multiple hits quickly. The only question you need to ask is what the situation where a tank can die due to burst damage is. I took the view that the only time this can happen without external environmental issues occurring (ie, healers silenced/feared/whatever) is when a tank takes two fast hits in a row. If you believe that it's 3 fast hits, that's modelable as well. You can create other situations where the equation is different (for example: a normal hit + special hit + hasted normal hit, and what the chances are of that). Heck, let's do that. The chances of a normal hit + special hit + hasted normal hit are:
(1-avoidance)*(1-avoidance)*(parry chance) * (1-avoidance). We'll assume a 15% parry chance as well.
For 50% avoidance, no expertise this is 1.875%
For 51% avoidance, no expertise this is 1.7647%
for 50% avoidance, 1% expertise this is 1.75%
For 60% avoidance, no expertise this is .96%
For 61% avoidance, no expertise, this is .8898%
For 60% avoidance, 1% expertise this is .896%
For 70/0 it's .405%
for 70/1 it's .378%
for 71/0 it's .3658%
So as you get into high levels of avoidance, avoidance stacking becomes better than expertise (marginally) in reducing the case of taking three hits in a row, one of which is hasted. That may be a better model to use in judging whether a tank gets gibbed; my experience is otherwise, but I haven't done extensive calculation in it. One thing to note is that with expertise it is possible to remove the chance entirely from the table; this isn't true for dodge (or not reasonably true). In any case the two are very similar in this situation. As you add more attacks into the equation without adding more hasted attacks avoidance will continue to improve thanks to the polynomial nature of it, but I don't think it's reasonable to worry about the situation where you take 4 or 5 hits in a row. That's not the likely case, and it's still very manageable by healing.
The assumption is that non-parry hasted hits do not kill tanks under most circumstances. Even a string of hits that aren't quick will not kill a tank; it'll make healers work harder, but it won't kill that tank. Heck, you say this yourself in the previous paragraph about tanking teron.