Originally Posted by Vagabond
Assuming balance in all things to the point where a team wins an unfavorable matchup purely off the RNG: a team that shouldn't win a match up... SHOULDN'T WIN. Arena has the larger metagame of counter-comps and counter-counter comps to battle this.
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I strongly disagree with this statement. Nobody wins purely off the RNG. There is no "my team randomly explodes no matter what I do" event in WOW. The team that won had to set up a situation where the RNG mattered and THEN get lucky.
Even in chess, with no RNG, the only time that happens is when computers programmed the same way play each other.
All spectator sports have to have a chance for the "underdog" to win, or there is no point tuning in.
Getting back to the example given above, which was (paraphrased) "if my team meets a particular comp, we get it to a point where if I cast a spell and it succeeds, 70% chance, we win, otherwise we lose".
To me, that team is the underdog. If you're gambling the whole game on a single 2/3 roll of the dice, you are clearly outmatched and can't win in a safer way. It may take great skill to overcome the disadvantage of your comp to put yourself into that 70% chance for a win, but the fact remains that if not outmatched, tactics like this won't be the order of the day. You might try them if evenly matched because it is > 50% if you manage to set it up, but next time if you are truly evenly matched, your opponent will be trying to prevent that setup - so your actual odds drop to the normal win/loss rate when facing equal opposition.
A dominant team in most professional sports can beat a weak team maybe 2 games in 3. The weakest team in a pro league can generally crush the best team of amateurs, no matter what their innate individual talents are or how lucky they get.
In WOW, much of the dedication of a pro team is covered by gear rather than training. Team composition is a gamble, always, if there was a perfect comp, everyone would use it. That means that except in mirror matches, somebody is going to start at a disadvantage. It's a crappy game if they are beaten before they take a single action. There has to be some elements that can turn the tide, beyond gear, comp and ordinary level "correct play" (ie matches only being lost if someone makes a gross error). That is a mix of individual player skill (talent+experience) and also in making the RNG work for you...to give you a chance to turn things around when behind and to minimize chance when ahead.