The random musings and mind dumps of a raid leading sports fanatic.
Playoffs?! Yes, we want to talk about Playoffs.
The home stretch of the NHL regular season is well under way, and there is no shortage of drama in this year's race to be one of the 8 on the inside of the playoff picture. How will the final playoff picture look? Where is your team going to end up? The current standings (In the East) as of this morning:
Top 8
In the hunt
4th to 8th Place: +/- 3 points
7th to 10th: +/- 6 points
The top 3 seeds are essentially locked in place with Washington and New Jersey flip flopping possibly towards the end of the season. The difference in being 2nd or 3rd could be a huge advantage as the 3-6 match-up is typically one of the more dangerous going into the NHL playoffs since the lockout.
In post-lockout playoff competition.
In the 5 seasons before the lockout the numbers were a bit different:
Here's how the rest of the seeds fair since 2000 (Round 1):
So despite the 4-5 usually being pegged as a "toss-up," the home team still has the advantage.
Championships per seed since 1994 (post expansion, re-alignment, and current playoff format):
Top denotes number of times with home-ice advantage in the Finals.
Although the above records include the Western Conference, I'm going to keep this post's analysis in the Eastern Conference. Here's a look at each of the wildcard teams and what we could see from each heading into spring hockey.
Current Wildcards
4. Philadelphia Flyers
Only five of their remaining 27 games are against teams that are all but mathematically eliminated form playoff contention. Nearly half (12) are against the current 5 through 8 seeds, or what we'll call "4 point games."
If Antero Nittymaki can keep letdowns at a minimum, the Flyers should be able to easily go into the post season as a 4 or 5 seed. They boast top of the league special teams numbers which includes an incredible, league-leading, 14 short-handed goals. A team like the Flyers puts pressure on you in every phase of the game and with one of the NHL's best goal scorer's on the roster, they put up goals in bunches against everyone.
5. New York Rangers
With the least amount of games remaining of any Eastern Conference team, the Rangers need to get back on their feet quickly if they want to stay in the top 8. From a match-up perspective, they are going to have probably the roughest schedule of any of the remaining teams that are in the hunt. Two home and homes with Philadelphia will most likely be the deciding factors in their final placing.
The problem the Rangers face is that they just can't score goals (T-30 w/ 2.34 GFA). Only two teams have a worse Power Play and their league-best Penalty Killing Unit is mostly due to all-world goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. The bottom line here is that King Henry is going to have to steal a lot of games for this team. Their leaders (Gomez, Drury, and Naslund) sport a combined -34. In fact, the only player above even is the teams leading scorer , Nikolai Zherdev, with +1.
6. Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens join the Rangers in the "stock is falling" column. The Habs are playing absolutely horrendous defense (22 goals against in their past 5 games) and likewise are getting no help from young goaltender Carey Price or Jaroslav Halak. Price and Halak are in danger of dropping under the .900 mark in save percentage when the Canadiens need them to be playing their best hockey at the most important time in the season. Add to this the off-ice problems with Kovalev and the suspension of winger Tomas Plekanec, and you have drama to go along with the on-ice struggles.
The Canadiens, who are celebrating their 100th Season, should not be worried. Their remaining 24 game set is the easiest of the wildcard contenders. It contains only 7 4 point games with 9 against clubs scraping the bottom of the Eastern Conference Standings. Add the 5 cross-conference contests and the Habs really have no excuse to miss the post season. The deal to add 39 year old D-Man Mathieu Schneider is a move the Canadiens hope will give a much needed boost to the blue line on the Power Play. The other side of this coin is that Schneider's production has dropped off sharply, but a reunion with the club he won a cup with in '93 could jump start his game.
7. Florida Panthers
Now on to the teams that are on the rise. The Panthers are on their way to passing the Canadiens after wallowing below the cut off line for much of the season. Florida's "shoot from anywhere" mentality coupled with strong play from trade-rumor star Jay Bouwmeester and Center Stephen Weiss have given this South Florida club a lot of confidence.
The obstacles facing the Panthers are few but significant. They will face top seeds 6 times including Washington 3 times (1-2 vs. the Capitals this season). The other is the contract situation of Defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. So far GM Jacques Martin has not been able to tender an offer to keep the scoring blue liner out of free agency and on his team. The last reported offer of $6.5M a year was apparently not enough to keep Jay from waiting until July and testing the market. Florida will undoubtedly be receiving offers as the March trade deadline approaches and the Panthers will have to decide soon whether or not they'll risk letting Bouwmeester go and getting nothing in return.
8. Buffalo Sabres
The analysis of the Sabres is relatively easy.
1) Will the absence of Thomas Vanek hurt the Sabres chances?
2) Ryan Miller
The resigning of Miller to a 5 year deal was money well spent. Without Vanek the Sabres are an average team scoring-wise (at best). His 15 power play goals lead the team by 8, and you can't subtract that without feeling any impact. However, when you have a goalie capable of literally carrying 19 people on his back like Ryan Miller, you can win any game you play. Buffalo will face 8 teams not in playoff contention in its final 24 along with 11 4-point games.
Can Ryan Miller continue to win games for this team? Can the Sabres make up for loss of Vanek's potent scoring ability? Buffalo is hoping they are still in the top 8 by April and Vanek can get back in game shape before the start of the playoffs. Upon returning he'll likely be sporting facial protection with limited ice time so getting used to playing in that situation will be key for Buffalo's post season run.
Playing Catchup
9. Carolina Hurricanes (-5)
March and April are, in a word, brutal for the Hurricanes. Their remaining February schedule contains only one game against a playoff contender (#8 Buffalo) which means they need to go into the final month and a half with points in the bank. Carolina will face the Devils and Capitals 3 times each starting March 3rd in the nation's capital. The Hurricanes have not put a 3 game win streak together since the new year and have had as much as a 5 game losing streak in the same time period.
10. Pittsburgh Penguins (-6)
After the promotion of AHL coach Dan Bylsma to Interim status this past week, the Penguins only managed to secure 1 point against the deplorable New York Islanders. Bylsma has attempted in this week's practices to bring the Penguins back to a more aggressive style of play that will try and prevent the Penguins from constantly surrendering multi-goal leads.
Pittsburgh schedule is rough (only 5 games against losing clubs), and will be a true test for Bylsma. With 2 of league's top 3 scorers in Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, the Penguins will never be short of scoring. The questions for the Penguins are simple:
1) Can Marc-Andre Fleury elevate his game to the level of last season's post-season run?
2) Will Bylsma's aggressive approach truly take advantage of the stars he has at his disposal?
Predictions
Which gives us the following playoff match-ups:
(8)Pittsburgh @ (1)Boston
(7)NY Rangers @ (2)New Jersey
(6)Montreal @ (3) Washington
(5)Florida @ (4)Philadelphia
The last 3 teams (Buffalo, Carolina, Pittsburgh) could are all viable playoff teams and any of them could sneak in. April is going to be a great time to be a hockey fan as these three as well as the Rangers and Canadiens will all be fighting for their playoff lives. The key parts of the schedule of these three are:
Penguins: 3 Games vs. Florida
Hurricanes: 3 Games vs. Washington/New Jersey
Sabres: March, 2 Games vs. Florida/Montreal
Drama can be fun. Games like this one at the beginning of the season could end up being the difference for a lot of teams.
Top 8
| Team | Points | Games Remaining |
| Boston | 88 | 24 |
| Washington | 79 | 24 |
| New Jersey | 77 | 24 |
| Philadelphia | 69 | 27 |
| NY Rangers | 68 | 23 |
| Montreal | 67 | 24 |
| Florida | 66 | 25 |
| Buffalo | 66 | 24 |
| Team | Points | Games Remaining |
| Carolina | 61 | 24 |
| Pittsburgh | 60 | 24 |
7th to 10th: +/- 6 points
The top 3 seeds are essentially locked in place with Washington and New Jersey flip flopping possibly towards the end of the season. The difference in being 2nd or 3rd could be a huge advantage as the 3-6 match-up is typically one of the more dangerous going into the NHL playoffs since the lockout.
In post-lockout playoff competition.
| Seed | Record |
| 2 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 2-4 |
In the 5 seasons before the lockout the numbers were a bit different:
| Seed | Record |
| 2 | 4-6 |
| 3 | 7-3 |
Here's how the rest of the seeds fair since 2000 (Round 1):
| Seed | Record |
| 1 | 13-3 |
| 2 | 9-7 |
| 3 | 9-7 |
| 4 | 11-5 |
So despite the 4-5 usually being pegged as a "toss-up," the home team still has the advantage.
Championships per seed since 1994 (post expansion, re-alignment, and current playoff format):
| Seed | # | Top |
| 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0 |
Although the above records include the Western Conference, I'm going to keep this post's analysis in the Eastern Conference. Here's a look at each of the wildcard teams and what we could see from each heading into spring hockey.
Current Wildcards
4. Philadelphia Flyers
Only five of their remaining 27 games are against teams that are all but mathematically eliminated form playoff contention. Nearly half (12) are against the current 5 through 8 seeds, or what we'll call "4 point games."
If Antero Nittymaki can keep letdowns at a minimum, the Flyers should be able to easily go into the post season as a 4 or 5 seed. They boast top of the league special teams numbers which includes an incredible, league-leading, 14 short-handed goals. A team like the Flyers puts pressure on you in every phase of the game and with one of the NHL's best goal scorer's on the roster, they put up goals in bunches against everyone.
5. New York Rangers
With the least amount of games remaining of any Eastern Conference team, the Rangers need to get back on their feet quickly if they want to stay in the top 8. From a match-up perspective, they are going to have probably the roughest schedule of any of the remaining teams that are in the hunt. Two home and homes with Philadelphia will most likely be the deciding factors in their final placing.
The problem the Rangers face is that they just can't score goals (T-30 w/ 2.34 GFA). Only two teams have a worse Power Play and their league-best Penalty Killing Unit is mostly due to all-world goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. The bottom line here is that King Henry is going to have to steal a lot of games for this team. Their leaders (Gomez, Drury, and Naslund) sport a combined -34. In fact, the only player above even is the teams leading scorer , Nikolai Zherdev, with +1.
6. Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens join the Rangers in the "stock is falling" column. The Habs are playing absolutely horrendous defense (22 goals against in their past 5 games) and likewise are getting no help from young goaltender Carey Price or Jaroslav Halak. Price and Halak are in danger of dropping under the .900 mark in save percentage when the Canadiens need them to be playing their best hockey at the most important time in the season. Add to this the off-ice problems with Kovalev and the suspension of winger Tomas Plekanec, and you have drama to go along with the on-ice struggles.
The Canadiens, who are celebrating their 100th Season, should not be worried. Their remaining 24 game set is the easiest of the wildcard contenders. It contains only 7 4 point games with 9 against clubs scraping the bottom of the Eastern Conference Standings. Add the 5 cross-conference contests and the Habs really have no excuse to miss the post season. The deal to add 39 year old D-Man Mathieu Schneider is a move the Canadiens hope will give a much needed boost to the blue line on the Power Play. The other side of this coin is that Schneider's production has dropped off sharply, but a reunion with the club he won a cup with in '93 could jump start his game.
7. Florida Panthers
Now on to the teams that are on the rise. The Panthers are on their way to passing the Canadiens after wallowing below the cut off line for much of the season. Florida's "shoot from anywhere" mentality coupled with strong play from trade-rumor star Jay Bouwmeester and Center Stephen Weiss have given this South Florida club a lot of confidence.
The obstacles facing the Panthers are few but significant. They will face top seeds 6 times including Washington 3 times (1-2 vs. the Capitals this season). The other is the contract situation of Defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. So far GM Jacques Martin has not been able to tender an offer to keep the scoring blue liner out of free agency and on his team. The last reported offer of $6.5M a year was apparently not enough to keep Jay from waiting until July and testing the market. Florida will undoubtedly be receiving offers as the March trade deadline approaches and the Panthers will have to decide soon whether or not they'll risk letting Bouwmeester go and getting nothing in return.
8. Buffalo Sabres
The analysis of the Sabres is relatively easy.
1) Will the absence of Thomas Vanek hurt the Sabres chances?
2) Ryan Miller
The resigning of Miller to a 5 year deal was money well spent. Without Vanek the Sabres are an average team scoring-wise (at best). His 15 power play goals lead the team by 8, and you can't subtract that without feeling any impact. However, when you have a goalie capable of literally carrying 19 people on his back like Ryan Miller, you can win any game you play. Buffalo will face 8 teams not in playoff contention in its final 24 along with 11 4-point games.
Can Ryan Miller continue to win games for this team? Can the Sabres make up for loss of Vanek's potent scoring ability? Buffalo is hoping they are still in the top 8 by April and Vanek can get back in game shape before the start of the playoffs. Upon returning he'll likely be sporting facial protection with limited ice time so getting used to playing in that situation will be key for Buffalo's post season run.
Playing Catchup
9. Carolina Hurricanes (-5)
March and April are, in a word, brutal for the Hurricanes. Their remaining February schedule contains only one game against a playoff contender (#8 Buffalo) which means they need to go into the final month and a half with points in the bank. Carolina will face the Devils and Capitals 3 times each starting March 3rd in the nation's capital. The Hurricanes have not put a 3 game win streak together since the new year and have had as much as a 5 game losing streak in the same time period.
10. Pittsburgh Penguins (-6)
After the promotion of AHL coach Dan Bylsma to Interim status this past week, the Penguins only managed to secure 1 point against the deplorable New York Islanders. Bylsma has attempted in this week's practices to bring the Penguins back to a more aggressive style of play that will try and prevent the Penguins from constantly surrendering multi-goal leads.
Pittsburgh schedule is rough (only 5 games against losing clubs), and will be a true test for Bylsma. With 2 of league's top 3 scorers in Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, the Penguins will never be short of scoring. The questions for the Penguins are simple:
1) Can Marc-Andre Fleury elevate his game to the level of last season's post-season run?
2) Will Bylsma's aggressive approach truly take advantage of the stars he has at his disposal?
Predictions
| Standing | Team |
| 1 | Boston |
| 2 | New Jersey |
| 3 | Washington |
| - | - |
| 4 | Philadelphia |
| 5 | Florida |
| 6 | Montreal |
| 7 | NY Rangers |
| 8 | Pittsburgh (91) |
| - | - |
| 9 | Buffalo (-1) |
| 10 | Carolina (-1) |
(8)Pittsburgh @ (1)Boston
(7)NY Rangers @ (2)New Jersey
(6)Montreal @ (3) Washington
(5)Florida @ (4)Philadelphia
The last 3 teams (Buffalo, Carolina, Pittsburgh) could are all viable playoff teams and any of them could sneak in. April is going to be a great time to be a hockey fan as these three as well as the Rangers and Canadiens will all be fighting for their playoff lives. The key parts of the schedule of these three are:
Penguins: 3 Games vs. Florida
Hurricanes: 3 Games vs. Washington/New Jersey
Sabres: March, 2 Games vs. Florida/Montreal
Drama can be fun. Games like this one at the beginning of the season could end up being the difference for a lot of teams.
Total Comments 3
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Talking about the 3-6 matchup is absolutely misleading. The reason that it is skewed in favor of the 6th seed is that it is ridiculously rare for the team that is the 3rd seed to have the 3rd best record in the conference.
In recent years, it has been common for the team that is the 3rd seed to only be given that seed by their division winner status. If seeded based on points, that 3rd seed would find itself anywhere from 6-10 in conference standings. If the 3 division winners have the 3 highest conference point totals, than thatdescrpency should dissapear. Being the 3rd seed should be barely more dangerous than being the second seed this year in the East, (as the 6th seeded team should be slightly better than the 7th), but not for the reasons that skewed the results of recent playoff first rounds. The 2nd vs 3rd seed battle for position is likely going to be far more important for second round home ice than for avoiding first round upset. |
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The only reason I pointed it out is because Washington and New Jersey are so close in the standings this year (which as you pointed out, was not true the last few years), and they both have more than 4th place Philadelphia. I made sure to include the numbers from before the lockout which still favors home ice overall in the first round.
Quote:
The 2nd vs 3rd seed battle for position is likely going to be far more important for second round home ice than for avoiding first round upset.
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There's an eastern division? Oh yeah, they're the guys who are going to be eaten by either San Jose or Detroit.
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