A GM told me straight up it should be working, but apparently he was misinformed... this was a few weeks ago that I filed a ticket regarding Fel Strength and Elixir Mastery. They said it was "recently fixed."

Sigh... GMs sometimes...

It's adjusting for transmute mastery as well, just as I predicted in the huge alchemy discussion around TBC release. Primal Mights are selling at cost-of-mats or below, and there is never a shortage of folks offering free Might transmutes in /trade. Thankfully since all the potential mastery proc profit is in Mights, there's still money to be made in Earth->Water or Water->Air.

I thought I read somewhere that the proc was a simple 1/6 with each item being able to proc another proc.

However I think that they need to change how this works for transmutation specialization. As others have mentioned, transmutes have an extra constraint that limits them -- cooldown. You can roll that die over and over as long as you have mats for potions/elixirs, but transmutes limit you to at best one roll a day.

Pretty lousy. I've done a transmute every day since I started to get them and have had two procs of my specialization. No double procs or beyond. I hardly feel like this is worth it. I should have just gone into potion specialization and gotten free mana pots.

If we assume a 20% total bonus (i.e. you will get 1.2 outputs for every 1 input on average), using pricing from my server:

Water sells for 18g
Air for 30g
Fire for 24g
Mana for 20g
Earth for 6g
Might for 85g

Profit on water->air x1: 12g
Profit on might x1: -13g

Profit expression:

Base profit + %chance of proc*rawvalueofproduct

Profit (w->a): 12 + .2*30 = 18g expected
Profit (might): -13 + .2*85 = 4g expected

Might's actually less profitable to transmute for a master than air.

Idle curiosity - what's air go for? E->W is a 31g expected profit for you; air would need to be:

P + .2*A = 31
P = A - W
1.2A - W = 31
1.2A = 61
A = 50.833g

~51g for the W->A to be more profitable.

Air generally goes on my server for 30~ gold, where water tends to go for 20~. Transmuting earth to water is definitely more profitable for me as a daily transmute when I just need to burn my timer. (And, Sporregor revered is quite easy to reach.)

The only thing that I could see being better would be Transmute Primal Shadow to Water, but as far as I know that is a discovery recipe.

As far as transmuting Primal Might... its only good if you are farming the mats for it yourself. If you take the time to farm your might mats (1 primal of each) daily, or do what I did and farm 5-6 water and fire on Saturdays and 5-6 mana and air on Sundays, you are set to make at least 450 gold in that week just from your timer (miners in your guild will likely give you earth for free, worst case is you farm/AH those too). And if you are a transmute master, you may proc for even more, which makes up for the fact that the mats themselves may be worth more than the mights.

And while its true that selling the mats themselves might bring a better profit, keep in mind that the primal fire/water/air/mana markets are generally more competitive than the might market due to AH inventory. There are times you can get 110+ for a might on the AH due to low/no inventory, and other times when you will have to settle for 85-90g. But with primals like fire and air, if you wish to sell you are usually going to have to undercut 10-20 other people on the market rather than the 5-7 at most you will usually see with mights.

I'm sure the people offering free transmutes are the same as I am -- they're taking a Might they already have, trading it for mats, and then transmuting those mats whenever the clock is up in hopes of a proc. It's the only way I can actually make money transmuting, but with the proc rate so low even that just feels like a waste.

I'm horrible about things like rep grinds (if you look at my armory, everyone is pretty much a tick above revered) and so I don't have Earth > Water yet, but with the absolutely dismal results I'm getting with my mastery I should probably follow advice and just buy Earth to transmute to Water instead of wasting my time on Might.

I don't even want to talk about how ALL THREE of those procs I got were transmute for guildmates, which I can't in good conscience keep the extras from.

Not enough

Plus the fact that the transmute for E->W is considerably harder to get is obviously a factor in the prices too.

Essentially on my server, prices fluctuate something like:

Earth: 5-10 (I recently bought 12 @ 4g90 to set me up for the next fortnight)
Water: ~30
Air: 30-40
Fire: 30-40
Mana: 20-25

Might is usually about 5-10g less than whatever the combined mats are going for at the time

I've been doing an earth --> water transmute everyday and have done 50 transmutes. I've had 1 extra proc 4 times. I was also doing might transmutes or other random transmutes with no procs before getting earth to water, but can't include them since I didn't keep track until I was revered with sporegar. I'd say for me it's been more like a 6-7% chance since the beginning of bc.

1x - 90%
2x - 10%
3x - 0%
4x - 0%
5x - 0%

Wow, the prices on your realm are about 33% higher than mine almost all around (mana is about the same price on ours however). I wonder what causes such a vast difference in pricing.

More often than not, it's the number of raiding guilds on the server. Raiders consume more materials such as craftables and pots and such as they're more interested in maximizing their character than a typical casual, and they want it sooner rather than later... and with sooner comes the willingness to pay more. How many raiders have their tailoring sets compared to your nonraider? That's a lot of primals needed if you have 15 mages after the massive amounts primal fire etc. rather than 5.