I really don't want to see WoW go anywhere any time soon, I could probably do with alot less 12 year olds playing warriors for mad purpz. I found WoW to be my most enjoyable MMO played. Its easy to get into and i can waste alot of time in the summer with it, i waste a little too much time in the summer. I have too many fond memories of WoW over 2 years of playing to just forget. I really see WoW try sweeping changes to world PvP in the next expansion, nothing too big like looting of gear. Somewhere along the lines of whole pvp zones like a larger Halaa, and new battlegrounds. WoW is great the way it is.

This much is true, i can say that i can never really quit WoW. Ive gone on long breaks of WoW because of real life and felt no need to play, eventually you miss those great times you had and feel the need to play everyday until you cave in again.

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/temp/activity.htm

That is the 'best' there is for objective stats and the playerbase does not look like its in decline based on that info.

this is no longer a thread about blizzcon speculation

Well, that graph actually shows very very little without context.

I mean, it's not even measured in millions, its tickmarks are hundred-thousands - so what's it's really "saying" is that about 900,000 people play Primetime. Whatever that means. Does it mean "on average every night"? Or every week? And what is primetime?

The graph is worthless without some explanation - especially in the context we're talking about, which is millions of subscriptions, and that chart doesn't even reach 1 million.

This is pretty much my thoughts exactly.

I think Blizzard is gradually realising that the lack of fun non-raid post-60 content has inadvertently seasoned most of it's new community to eventually become raiders in some form or degree. It used to be that "hardcore raiders" was a tautology, but now there is clearly "hardcore raiders" and "casual raiders" and a smattering of guilds inbetween. I have a friend who is pulling his hair out to Essence of Souls and another friend who is rapidly trying to get Kara attuned because his guild had it's first explore last week - 6 man trash clearing.

Right now, I feel that Blizzard is facing a tough decision in deciding whether or not raiding is the pinnacle for all players. They seem to want to provide alternatives (heroics, BoE/BoP craftable epics, sellable raiding patterns), but they're still not quite getting there in that attunemen items seem to be the ceiling for any non-raid PvE item. Many heroics were simply not worth it for a long time, and karazhan items were simply far more accessible. How many 50-honor token helms have you seen around? How many raiders use dailys as a source of gold, as opposed to a route to obtain low ilvl epics?

Arena is another example; the honor grind certainly favours non-raiders but the importance of PvE gear at the entry level and the generous 10-game requirement suggest even Arena favours raiders. There are serious diminishing returns to arena PvP, and even players with active lives and serious raiding guilds are perfectly capable of maintaining very respective arena ratings.

Ultimately, the thing that would excite me the most for the next expansion would be for Blizzard to make a clear decision in this regard and truly embracing it. As you said, I think 10-man instances would be a great way to do this. However, putting them on a 3-day reset timer (ala Z'G) is silly; casual raiding should be directed at the 1-2 days a week guilds, whom wouldn't want to clear 2-3 10-mans twice a week. Additionally, don't put anything in these instances of benefit to hardcore raiders. Rentaki's, FoTF/Hakkari MH, and enchants were a source of much frustration and obligation for my hunter in Naxx.

I agree with your post overall, but wanted to object to one aspect of one of point.

Auto Assault was actually a very good game. It was fun, fast paced, a bit mindless, but quite a solid and even polished offering...or would have been if they'd positioned it as a Diablo II style multiplayer CRPG (and chosen a pricing model to support that). The problem was they wanted it to be an MMO, and it just didn't work as one on many different levels. Which is a pity; I'd happily have paid $50 for a CRPG-ish version of Auto Assault. Hell, I'd have been seriously interested in a Guild Wars style "serial expansion pack" model - but they wanted an MMO. Ironic, considering who the publishers were...

So yeah, I agree that WoW didn't kill Auto Assault, but I think it wasn't because the game was bad; it was more like watching a fish try to climb a mountain - they didn't understand the market, and they weren't equipped to compete in it. (See also: Earth & Beyond; another fun game which didn't need to be an MMO, didn't work as an MMO, was made by people who gave no hint that they had played an MMO before, and crashed and burned because of it. Shame. Although there at least EA was behind it, so it wasn't really unexpected.)

Well the problem with Auto Assault was that it wasn't what it advertised to be. All they had to do was make Twisted Metal or Car Wars writ large. What they did instead was take standard EQ/WoW style gameplay and gave it the illusion it was something more. I was in very early beta all the way up to release and I remember thinking, "How can you screw this up? Why am I logging on and having to choose between healer car, tank car and dps car? Why are my shots rolled on a d100 like every other game?"

And Auto Assault was made by an experienced dev house. They made Jumpgate, which is still going, years prior and just scored a license for a LEGO MMO.

No, the problem with AA was that once you stripped the cars away it was just another Diku, meaning that they were competing head on with WoW. You can't do that anymore. The pve, autoattack combat, math equation raiding game has reached its pinnacle. It's only by offering stuff very distinct from WoW that you can garner a success. That's why Blizz is good for the industry: someone else might think of a car MMO, look at Auto Assault, and offer up some actual twitch gameplay.

WAR is going to be the real interesting one. Not only has it actively targeted discontented PvPers (Who by the way I believe will never be satisfited with wows system, as it would require a total overhaul) but they also have an pre-existing fan base, and a rather large one at that. WoW did so well in part due to Blizzards, and in particular the Warcraft worlds large following.

WAR will do the same in my opinion, and I think just about any player of WoW who has ever played Warhammer tabletop will definately sub for a month to see how it is. This has implications to not only take WoW's pvpers, but a big population of all WoW's players with the possible exception of the Hardcore raiders (unsure of whether there are raids in WAR and if its all just pvp at end game yet).

I was hoping for an expansion around Christmas time but I think thats unlikely as I believe it would have been announced before now were it the case. What I now think will happen is an announcement of a small expansion, less than TBC in size, with a release date sketched in for early 2008. They'll then keep polishing it and aim to push it a week or two before WAR which will devestate the release sales of WAR. I don't think I left my flat for anything but lectures at uni for the first 3 weeks of TBC, if they timed and expansion like this I'd definately still be in full WoW mode for the release of WAR, a game that I've promised myself I'll switch over too.

As for getting off topic, well maybe. Back to Blizzcon:
- Expansion announcement.
- Early 08 release.
- Level cap increase, but possibly only 5 levels.
- If they go with the introduction of Undermine, I think that both factions will recieve a goblin race. Can dress it up with the horde paying xyz family of goblins to be on their side etc...
- New class. (goblin tinkerer maybe? ) Same class for both factions. Don't think they'll ever do a faction specific class again.
- New story arc introduced as either the Arthas/Northrend storyline or picking up on the Emerald Dream/Nightmare storyline.
- More heroics, more raids. 10 man raids given paralell progression to 25 man raid instances.
- New proffessions. Theres a few gaps in the proffession coverage at the moment. Most likely I think it will be some sort of carpentery/fletchery type proffession. They use wood (nodes added in form of trees throughout all exisiting zones) as their main tool and can craft bows/stalves/wands and possibly even shields. If not shields, they'll add shields to Armoursmithing/general Blacksmithing or add it as a specialisation of Blacksmithing as Shieldcrafting.
- Preview of the T7 raid dungeon. Rumoured to be vs Kil'Jaeden though I'd find it highly unlikely he'd be drawn into a direct fight given his lore. But Blizzard likes to ignore it so may happen. Either way, I expect the new dungeon to bring a whole new zone, along with a lot of quests and possibly a 5 man instance for casuals/non raiders. I think Blizzard has learned the hard way not to release raid dungeons without accompanying casual content in surrounding patches/same patch.
- Zul'aman preview and playable demo along with loot and quests being shown off.
- Possible announcement of new leveling zone (read a blue a while ago saying they were looking at it). Something around the 40-50 mark to make leveling through those levels less of a chore.

It seems clear in retrospect that the anecdotal game dropoff "statistics" came from long-established players simply seeing normal attrition. In the meantime, scads of new players have joined up. Walk around Shatt and take note of how many guild names weren't around six months ago. Or go on a PuG and ask the players how many of them have run Strat/Scholo. You'll be surprised.

My question:

If the second expansion to wow (which hopefully blizzcon will share details on) is designed to help stem-off any subscriber loss to the other MMORPG games due out within 1-2 years - what would the designers of wow be talking about in their design meetings now - that will have to be integrated into wow before then?

Ive heard alot of people mention more dynamic/involving/meaningful pvp as one - so could we quite comfortable say the second expansion is going to have some big pvp changes?

Besides pvp however, what other things will need to be addressed and considered?

What exactly is wrong with the current character progression model? You've got reputation (i.e. attunements) and itemization, and these are already hefty barriers... why would they ever add anything beyond that?

Because my friend who doesn't have the ability to invest more than two hours at a time of gameplay is effectively precluded from advancing his character once he's maxed his rep and has no more available upgrades from 5-man stuff. Alternate Advancement points -- while fraught with game balance perils -- are a good way for less hardcore players to continue to advance their character power.

Not to mention it gives reason for higher level people to go back and do heroics, which otherwise offer no reward to them once badges are no longer necessary.

I really don't think the game needs something else to grind for min/maxxers to feel like they're performing at their best. More likely, they need things like more options for Heroic turn-ins, and more depth in repeatable quests. In other words, alternative itemization schemes, rather than more shit to do on top of gaining items.

I can't help but feel like this statement and any permutations of it always need an asterisked disclaimer:

* excluding Japan

Something like this is what Digo is asking for.

Many set bonuses could provide a good model for bettering your character outside of the normal stats.

Well, I think you run into two main issues here. You're right that character progression is rather one-dimensional in its current incarnation, and only somewhat two-dimensional if you consider that PvP is largely distinct these days in its equipment requirements and the means for acquiring them. But, unlike PvP, you'd be adding a dimension that essentially requires you to participate in it to maximize your effectiveness in either PvE *or* PvP. An additional layer of progression on top of whichever part of the game you play. For gains that are essentially identical to what you get from itemization progression (slight additions to your fundamental stats), except for the fact that they stack.

Because it's a progression that's inherently never going to be obsoleted, you're getting a powerful motivator for raiders or PvPers to participate in it. With this motivation, guilds or PvP groups will likely figure out ways to farm it as quickly as possible, probably much much faster or more efficiently than the casual player it's designed to benefit, and unless some explicit cap is put in place to prevent hardcore players from pursuing them, it'll probably quickly turn into another one of those scenarios that just further distinguishes the hardcore from the casual (some items like clicky trinkets had this effect in pre-TBC).

Beyond that, you've created something that will never be obsolete. If you put forth a quest that increases your HP by 100, then you potentially create something that players will feel compelled to do 5 expansions down the road.

These are obstacles that can be overcome through sufficient attention to detail, but I generally feel that any solution that isn't overly complicated will probably result in significantly more negative consequences than positive ones, and probably not even really benefit the "casual" players that it's supposedly designed to work for. And really doesn't even accomplish anything that items couldn't have, and unlike itemization, is likely to be impossible to incorporate any real form of "progression" into.

Blizzard had the right idea to begin with and provided some flexibility with the blue sets by having non-class specific sets (Desolation Battlegear, Doomplate Battlegear, Mana-Etched Regalia, and Wastewalker Armor) that provided decent stats and near-universally useful set bonuses (depending on spec) that could complement the corresponding 'on-class' sets.

Then they went and made all the epic sets class-specific.

It would be nice if they threw in some 'off-class' sets to mix things up a bit.

Then you run into the dilemma of 3-piece Trans / 5-piece Earthfury all over again.

From my experience set bonuses fall into one of two categories:

1) A pure "numbers increase", for example many of the T6 benefits offer something which could eventually be overcome by better gear. These are perhaps the safest of all set bonuses since they are useful, but can be easily replaced.

2) A "unique" ability, usually something that only talents can offer (3-piece Trans, 5-piece Nightslayer), but can also encompass other abilities that may be outside the realm of talents. These are typically either really bad, or amazingly good (on the level of being overpowered).

Trying to link character progression to set bonuses creates the potential issue of never being able to let go of "x-piece y set bonus", which could limit future gear upgrades and itemization.

Well, my take on this is that if you don't put a cap on these progression means (like, you could conceivably keep doing Arenas and stack a +10 HP bonus on you from here till the end of time), you're not helping anything. You're just making it more tedious.

When I think of the games that I've played that had exemplary forms of player progression that worked for both "hardcore" and "casual" I think of things like Final Fantasy X and XII (I know, don't laugh). The Sphere Grid was a stroke of genius - you could customize your character however you damn well wanted, and if you were truly hardcore, you could start replacing the default Sphere Grid Nodes with whatever you wanted. Now THAT was advanced progression. However, you could never create NEW nodes, so there was a well-defined limit, but it was VERY time-consuming to get that far, but doable. FFXII was similar but with the License Board, and you could also customize your character however you wanted, but without the option of changing nodes on the board. Still very very time-consuming to max out, but possible, and with tangible benefits.

The clear winner is FFX's Sphere Grid though - just imagine in WoW if you were given the option at really high levels to tweak the powers you got as you leveled up? In other words, as a Mage, I could take those pesky Str/Agi/Stam points I got as I leveled up and turn them into something [more] useful, like int/spirit (and in a perfect world, +dmg/crit/haste). But since there are only 69 level-ups, it limits what you can do in your customization, but would still be time-consuming to achieve the maximum effectiveness (I would envision earning the right to even 1 stat change would involve some major accomplishment).

Similarly, other games, D&D Computer games primarily, gave you the option to pick whatever stat you wanted to level up as you leveled. Problem is, those changes were permament, but I'm sure they wouldn't be if something like that was implemented here.