I'd love to hear people's (reasoned) opinions on how the void shatter change will affect the VC/LPS markets. On my server and I believe most others, LPS and VC are currently fairly similarly prices (within 5g of each other). With the change, I foresee the price of VC being roughly exactly twice that of LPS, which means that either LPS prices will drop, VC prices will rise, or both.
I suspect both effects will occur and that the LPS drop will be larger, but by how much? If we say VC and LPS are both currently 2Xg, will they change to 2.5.5X and 1.25X? The worst case scenario for sellers would be if VC stayed the same while LPS crashed to half VC, which seems at least possible due to the extremely large supply of VCs in guild banks and from Kara and such.
Voids were always cheap due to the high supply from Kara and other raids, but never market-glut cheap. They still have value due to their heavy inclusion in almost every high-end enchant. LPS just developed more value due to being included in even more enchants, and due to the shortage most raiding guilds encountered when all they were sharding was purples.
I don't foresee LPS falling without Voids gaining. And I don't see Voids becoming exactly double the value of LPS, for the same reason all processed goods carry a premium. Bars generally cost more than ore, heavy knothide goes for more than the components, khorium power cores, etc. There's no cooldown, but there's still a level 375 skill required for the conversion, and many people are going to be lazy and still buy the LPS for x gold, even if Voids are only 1.5x gold.
I think a realistic expectation would be that if Voids and LPS are both sitting at 30g right now, Voids would go up into the 30's and LPS down into the 20's. The most prominent factor will be what kind of LPS glut is created by people sharding all their voids on the day of the patch. However, any LPS glut from this would probably decrease the supply of voids, causing them to rise in price, then the LPS supply will run out and there will be fewer voids left to shatter. So prices recover and we're back to square one.
Of course, keep in mind that not everyone reads patch notes, and many people will miss the fact that the cooldown's gone. Hell, many people probably missed the fact that there's a Void Shatter in the first place.
The worst case scenario for sellers would be if VC stayed the same while LPS crashed to half VC, which seems at least possible due to the extremely large supply of VCs in guild banks and from Kara and such.
I think this will be the case for the short term at least. Right now VC supplies are at very high levels everywhere, sitting around offering little value. The demand for both VC and LPS will not change, but now suddenly there will be a huge surge of Large Prismatics from a source of thousands of neurtral, near-valueless Void Crystals.
I feel that even with the consumption rate of LPS, it could take weeks, maybe even months, before the great stores of VCs are finally exhausted and we start to see a recovery in the price of both. However, if Season 4 were to start soon, it could do a lot to expedite consumption, and demand may even surge high enough to keep prices from dropping dramatically. Perhaps this is Blizzard's intention, to limit how much cash is ending up in the hands of the few individuals with enough savvy, forethought and big enough bankrolls to exploit such predictable surges in demand as patches and arena seasons. Season 3 was a good example of how great fortunes were concentrated into the hands of a minority of players who drove prices and profits up to extreme levels.
Perhaps this is Blizzard's plan to help tame the prices spike of the upcoming Season 4, or perhaps it's just something as benign as finding a solution for dealing with all these crappy Voids since a 24-cooldown wasn't cutting them down faster than more were incoming.
VC cooldown going away makes me glad I cleared out my 60 LPS right after anvil was completed. 35g per was rather nice.
Our server must be on the high end of Primal Nether and Nether Vortex prices.
I have never seen a Nether lower than 160g / per in AH (some tells in trade chat for 125g on occasion). I have several guildies who sell out of Nether Vortex at 400g-450g, 350g AH prices appear on occasion, with 325g being the lowest I have seen. (trade chat msgs of 300g / vortex appear somewhat frequently).
Antonidas prices are higher than most other servers for some things. I thought the primal nether / nether vortex prices would drop after a couple weeks, but I'm not seeing it.
I expect that the LPS market will stay the same or slightly decline until the patch and then experience high volatility before settling at a slight decrease from where it is now, while the VC market rises slightly to settle at about 2x the value of a LPS.
Although not all read patch notes, many do, which I expect to mean some will try to liquidate their LPS stores, likely driving down prices slightly. It's also important to remember that not all players are savvy on the AH, which means they may keep their LPSs for personal use or list them in unpredictable, non-gold maximizing ways.
After the patch, I expect a number of people to Void Shatter their hearts out, leading to a market glut and lots of instability before a price settles. As noted above, the increased use value of VCs will likely drive their price up somewhat. That price will likely creep up a bit in advance of the patch as people stockpile in anticipation of being able to shatter without CD post-patch.
There are two additional factors that I've been kicking around all morning.
First, if those of us who are large-scale LPS creators stop creating blues to shard, we'll likely have a substantial number of shards no longer placed in the market. Depending on the server and its economy, this will offset some of the increased production of Void Shatter. Quite simply, taking the 50 or so LPSs I sell a day out of the market will counter balance the increased production of other players, which I think will prevent a whole sale collapse.
Second, VCs, especially those in guild banks, aren't completely fluid. Depending on guild structure and guild bank procedures, not all of those VCs are going to suddenly end up shattered and in the market. I suspect a fair number of them will linger in guild banks for a substantial period of time.
On my server, there's an 8ish gold gap between LPS and VC prices (around 25/around 33), although I expect that gap to grow, LPSs are such a key part of enchanting that the demand should still stay high. I plan on continuing to produce LPSs for a bit and keep an eye on the market, as I could still make a profit on my shards even if the market lost about a third of its value. I'll likely slow efforts to prop the market up though, so I don't get caught on the wrong side of the price drop.
This seems to be a move that, in combination with the availability of purple gems complicating profit making and control in the blue gem market, will make it much harder to corner a market and consolidate gold in the hands of the few. Many of these moves seem to be diversifying the number of players on the AH and making it harder to control a market and prop up prices.
First, if those of us who are large-scale LPS creators stop creating blues to shard, we'll likely have a substantial number of shards no longer placed in the market. Depending on the server and its economy, this will offset some of the increased production of Void Shatter. Quite simply, taking the 50 or so LPSs I sell a day out of the market will counter balance the increased production of other players, which I think will prevent a whole sale collapse.
Second, VCs, especially those in guild banks, aren't completely fluid. Depending on guild structure and guild bank procedures, not all of those VCs are going to suddenly end up shattered and in the market. I suspect a fair number of them will linger in guild banks for a substantial period of time.
That are my thought exactly. A guildmate and I have been controlling the LPS on our server for a week or two with producing atleast 40 LPS each every day, thats fucking 80 LPS a day, thats a lot of LPS that wont be available anymore.
I think a week or two after the patch the LPS market could get interesting again, and additionally it will be interesting until like a day or two before the patch hits the realms, because most people arew straigthforward, they get new gear and they want to enchant it ASAP not in like a week when it will be cheaper...
I think a week or two after the patch the LPS market could get interesting again, and additionally it will be interesting until like a day or two before the patch hits the realms, because most people arew straigthforward, they get new gear and they want to enchant it ASAP not in like a week when it will be cheaper...
Yeah, I edited this out of my post, but it's a huge part of what drives the LPS market. If you get a new item, most want/need/are compelled by their guild to enchant it almost immediately. In these cases, price almost literally does not matter as they want goods *now*. LPSs are used in so many enchants that the demand is likely to stay quite high...
I don't foresee LPS falling without Voids gaining. And I don't see Voids becoming exactly double the value of LPS, for the same reason all processed goods carry a premium. Bars generally cost more than ore, heavy knothide goes for more than the components, khorium power cores, etc. There's no cooldown, but there's still a level 375 skill required for the conversion, and many people are going to be lazy and still buy the LPS for x gold, even if Voids are only 1.5x gold.
That's probably wrong. Mats that can be used for multiple things, are generally more expensive (per part) than the products if that recipe is widespread. The most obvious example would be admantite ore, which is usually significantly more expensive than bar/2.
Since voids can be used for recipes besides LPS, in a large market with many enchanters with this recipe (the Eternium Rod being the real limit), voids should never drop below LPS*2, since some people still want Mongoose, Executioner, and all other VC recipes.
Also of note here is that if you have a bunch of [Brilliant Glass] with crappy blues in 'em, you can wait and hopefully some of them will reroll themselves into a [Living Ruby].
That's probably wrong. Mats that can be used for multiple things, are generally more expensive (per part) than the products if that recipe is widespread. The most obvious example would be admantite ore, which is usually significantly more expensive than bar/2.
Since voids can be used for recipes besides LPS, in a large market with many enchanters with this recipe (the Eternium Rod being the real limit), voids should never drop below LPS*2, since some people still want Mongoose, Executioner, and all other VC recipes.
Your point about Adamantite is very true, especially because of the fact that Outland ore is frequently prospected. When I was thinking of the comparison, I was thinking more along the lines of Copper, Mithril, Iron... lower level materials that people will typcially look for in bar form for quick powerleveling of Blacksmithing or Engineering. Anyway, the idea I was shooting for is that many people will pay a premium to go to the AH and get an item now, as opposed to finding the cheapest source of said item. Voids will certainly still be used, even more so now, but that fact alone shouldn't make them more valuable than the shards they can be shattered into. Voids being worth more than LPS would more or less destroy the entire point of shattering in the first place.
The market will probably tend toward 2 LPS = 1 Void, but I think it may not quite make it there. Recipes that require 6 Voids and 8 LPS will just be seen as requiring 10 Voids. Since anyone enchanting a Void-using recipe will have Void Shatter, we'll have people just bringing additional Voids to be shattered by the person doing the enchant. They should become almost liquidly transferrable, although it requires a bit more work on the Enchanter's part, and people will no doubt try to charge to shatter voids. So you wind up with the only impedance to liquid transference being the Enchanter's time, which should leave LPS slightly above half the price of Voids.
Simply based on the knowledge gap between those of us who expect voids to be worth more than LPS by 2.4.2 and (I imagine) the much larger majority of those who don't, it seems like a very solid long term investment. Of course for the week the patch hits, primals, gems, and leg enchant mats will probably be just as lucrative, but the market will evaporate as soon as the rush is over.
Does anyone else just 5 box the dailies? Even just between my real life friends, we have probably 8 accounts and quite a few 70's, 6 of which do the dailies every day, and the rest just sit. I log on 4 more and just do the dailies as normal on my warrior, with all of them on follow and no extra effort at all, I usually leave them minimized the entire time.
People in party get credit for the following:
-sentries
-portals
-demons (including planting the flag)
-elf killing
-murloc slaves
-bombing run (you have to open the dialogue window on everyone and alt tab and click crazy fast, obviously)
-elf ships (same as above for burning the sails)
-fel ember (obviously)
-emancipated's
-nagrand
-attack plans
etc...
mana remanants, naga keys, mana cells, roots, etc don't work, so I skip them or just do them on my main. But so far I make about 600g a day with very very little extra effort.
• Riding Crop - Permanently enchant a mount to increase its mounted speed by 10%. You may only enchant mounts in your own inventory, and enchanting your mount will cause it to become soulbound. Single use.
Does anyone have any thoughts as to whether the Crops will now have a slight market? With the price of Primal Mights on my server, it was never worth crafting except for a few skill points. Now that its more of a "consumable", somewhat similar to an enchant, will we see an increase in the market?
Because it enchants the mount itself, people will want atleast 2 (ground/flying epic). The only exception to that might be the Locks and Paladins with epic ground mounts that are summoned.
With the amount of leatherworkers out there, I think there might end up being more of a market surge on Primal Mights than the crops themselves, as there is a good chance people will get thier friends to craft them the crop instead of purchasing the finished product.
I haven't checked the price of Mights since the huge jump in primal prices, so I'm not entirely sure if its been balanced out at this point. Either way, there may be some potential there for some smart people with decent sized bankrolls.
LPSes have already dropped by 5-10g where I'm at since news of the patch change to Void Shatter. People are already unloading their shards while they can.
A good idea might be to just wait until they hit rock bottom right after the patch hits, buy up a few, and then wait until the supply of voids dries up a bit and people find it isn't worth their time to sell them. Then throw some back up for a higher price.
I'd suggest the same thing with epic gems once the vendor hits. People are going to rush and flood the market and they'll drop probably below 100g apiece. Then, the supply will dry up a bit and the price will probably level back out anywhere from 100-200g apiece. Then you can make some good money.
Does anyone have any thoughts as to whether the Crops will now have a slight market? With the price of Primal Mights on my server, it was never worth crafting except for a few skill points. Now that its more of a "consumable", somewhat similar to an enchant, will we see an increase in the market?
I suspect there will be a surge in Riding Crop purchases if this change goes through. So far though it is uncertain based on the comments I've read.
As usual the trick will be to work the market change from multiple angles instead of just one. Sell the primals for the Primal Might, sell the Primal Might, sell the Heavy Knothide in stacks of 4, sell the enchating mats in proper stacks, etc. And finally advertise the service to do the crafting so that people see the item and then go to the AH to view your stacks of materials you just posted. Thus making a profit on both the materials, and the tip or fee you charge to do the combine. There also may be quite a few buyers for the pattern itself, though doing that just generates more competition amongst sellers instead of doing all the craft/selling on your own.
I suspect there will be a surge in Riding Crop purchases if this change goes through. So far though it is uncertain based on the comments I've read.
What it comes down to is how many players would be willing to improve the speed they ride around on related to the cost of the riding crop itself. Anyone that reasonable thinks about it should do it, as with the extra money from Dailies going around, there really is no reason not to.
I didn't really pick much out of the patch notes that woudl affect the market very much (other than the void shatter), so I'm very interested to see how a small change like this will affect the market.
On the subject of LPS, I really don't see the price dipping much, if at all, long term. If it does, people who generally craft/DE for LPS will simply stop doing it, unless the associated mat cost also drops. With Netherweave already dipping as low as 2.25-2.5g/stack on my server at times, I don't expect that they will go any lower. Arcane dust hasn't seen a huge shift on my server either, and still generally runs at the 20g/stack range.
I think it will be interesting to see if they drop 2.4.2 at, or very close to, the same time Season 4 is started. I'm sure Blizz saw how the market was dominated at the start of season 3, and removing the void shatter cooldown at the same time as the new gear is released (in addition to having S3 still require rating) is a great way to stop the huge price increase on enchanting mats.
Does anyone have any thoughts as to whether the Crops will now have a slight market? With the price of Primal Mights on my server, it was never worth crafting except for a few skill points. Now that its more of a "consumable", somewhat similar to an enchant, will we see an increase in the market?
Because it enchants the mount itself, people will want atleast 2 (ground/flying epic). The only exception to that might be the Locks and Paladins with epic ground mounts that are summoned.
With the amount of leatherworkers out there, I think there might end up being more of a market surge on Primal Mights than the crops themselves, as there is a good chance people will get thier friends to craft them the crop instead of purchasing the finished product.
I haven't checked the price of Mights since the huge jump in primal prices, so I'm not entirely sure if its been balanced out at this point. Either way, there may be some potential there for some smart people with decent sized bankrolls.
I was also intrigued by the potential money-maker here. Life is not easy for Leatherworkers when it comes to making good profit from their trade skill, and this might be a chance for them to cash in. When I saw this change, I told a LW guildie about it and we started talking about how to best profit from it. If the mats required for the Crop stay the same, the price will need to go up significantly for a good profit to be made. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the mat requirement reduced, but assuming that does not happen it may be easier to profit from putting mats up in the AH for these.
My suggestion for a safe way to make profit would be to have a lot of 4-stacks of Heavy Knothide Leather, arcane dust, and small prismatics up on the AH when the patch hits. If you have primal mights, put them up at ridiculous prices. Then advertise in trade chat that you're making Riding Crops, require that the buyer provide mats, and charge a pretty low price (possibly even free). Watch the spam of your auctions selling. This is basically the method I used for enchanting when Season 3 hit. Load up the AH with overpriced enchanting mats and then offer enchants for cheap (or free) on trade.
This is going to be a costly change for all of those mount collectors out there, but since my main is a druid with swift flying, this will just save me a bag slot for that trinket.
Inignot: And remember, there's no such thing as a dumb question.
Happy Time Harry: I have a question.
Inignot: Yes, in the back, the retard with the dumb question.
One interesting thing that comes out of this change, if it goes through, is that all of a sudden the Skybreaker Whip will have a use. And since you're practically required to have a riding crop to win the races you will end up with a second crop-trinket. I hope mine's still in the bank! :P
One interesting thing that comes out of this change, if it goes through, is that all of a sudden the Skybreaker Whip will have a use. And since you're practically required to have a riding crop to win the races you will end up with a second crop-trinket. I hope mine's still in the bank! :P
You can get the Skybreaker Whip without having a riding crop, I know many others who have done it besides myself.
The only exception to that might be the Locks and Paladins with epic ground mounts that are summoned.
Minor Correction: Paladins have Crusader Aura, which increases mounted movement speed by 15%, which is better than any Riding Crop, so they wouldn't be interested in the Riding Crop.
However, Warlocks might still be interested: there's no indication that the Riding Crop will be applicable to the Summon Dreadsteed, or for any workable alternative, so a Warlock would still buy a Crop for his non-summoned ground mount.
04/23/08, 11:05 AM
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