Decrease in demand. Everyone that got their new PVP gear a few weeks ago is done enchanting it.
Increase in supply. More people online during winter vacation and more people running heroics = more shards from 5mans, more dust from greens, etc.

Those are my 2 guesses. I imagine the price change will last a month at minimum, if it isnt permanent. I just hate the idea of holding the dust that long without selling my 50/day.

Nexus crystals to LPS was very good and I think I was the only one that caught it on my server. Thats over now, and I can't buy 20 stacks of nexus crystals at 79g anymore. Nexus are selling at 8g min now, which is break even for LPS (24-26g).

With arcane dust prices where they are, the blood garnet and golden draenite DE rings aren't worth the time it takes to make them and DE, you can't buy the gems cheap enough anymore.

Golden spellthread (I buy the mats cheap, pay 75g a nether, someone else crafts) still makes me 50g profit, but demand is only 1-2 a week even when I am lowest listed all week. I think of my own character, and now that I have Chess legs, I wont need to change pants/enchants for a month at least.

Buying Imbued netherweave robes under 24g isnt worth the time to go to the mailbox and DE either. Most people would pass on this in general, but I look at it as someone offering you 5-6g to DE each item. Not bad for time invested if you find a bunch, shard price doesn't make this profitable at the moment.

It seems that the market has corrected on all the gaps I used to exploit, at least in this short term. I guess I'll just have to find new methods or increase my ore farming / decrease my AH farming ratio.
At 1.8 each, I would definately make my own arcane dust. You can always find cheap stacks of blood garnet and golden draenite (I pay no more than 10g a stack of 20) and have a JC friend or guildy make you rings to DE. Its not a huge money maker, but it isnt bad for the time invested.

(2xgem) + (1x fel iron bar) = roughly 1.8g. You are guaranteed at least 2 Arcane dust. That is doubling your money at the very least. All the GPE and SPS are just gravy. The limiting factor is finding the gems, I can only find 20-30 a day at that price. But they are always there if you look hard enough, too many JC's are prospecting only and look at them as unwanted byproduct to be dumped on the AH.

I would blame demand not supply. A lot of guilds' raid progression is on hold for the holiday season, so people who play are more likely to be doing their solo farming and not really getting gear upgrades.

If you're uncomfortable predicting a market, drag it out. Sell only a few every day and you'll naturally time-average the price you get. This will not maximize returns but it will minimize volatility, which is what you're asking about. This is one of the two most basic ways to reduce the volatility of any investment portfolio (dollar cost averaging), the other being diversification (farm some primals between your shard runs?).

Cheers and thanks to this thread. It's been said before but it's worth saying again.

True. I guess I am more upset at not following one of my own rules -- don't have much of anything banked except in special circumstances. I like to stay liquid. Not always the best case, as gold value fluctuates also, but it has worked for me and keeps me worry-free. Especially since it was Arcane Dust, a commodity that I feel I can make myself at any time for less than the AH price.

I never have much of anything on hand. The rare exception was pre-BC I buried every last gold I had in stacks of thorium ore (about 300 stacks, took 3 alts to hold). I think average cost I paid was 7g a stack and average sale price 6 weeks later was 16g. If only I could go back in time and buy all those nexus crystals at 4g each right at BC release, or Primal Shadow, etc etc

After re-reading this thread (again), I guess Arcanoweave Bracers are the answer when dust is 'too cheap'. It looks to be one of the purest methods to turn dust ---> shards. Lets hope the shard price holds up.

Well, if the shard price decreases, then it's more productive to sell dusts + netherweave again Alternatively, good sellers are [Large Brilliant Shard]s; usually, I have a stack of those on the bank alts, that I don't really need to sell, but I'm pretty confident I could burn them all in a day if I was desperate for money, judging by the supply relative to the amount of 'wtb crusader, hav mats' flooding the trade channel. And, I could probably pinch a large tip for that too, since not too many of the people that farmed crusader can be bothered to do it, or even play the game anymore.

Netherweave varies anywhere from 2.5g to 4g a stack on my server, which is a huge percentage variation. Because of how quickly it is transacted, this doesn't seem surprising.

Person X lists his cloth at the higher end of the range, and is slowly undercut in 10s increments until the price bottoms out at 2.5g, at which somebody buys every stack available. At that point, people list at the high end again.

That's my guess as to what happens. Super mana pots on my server have an obvious cycle as well; peaking at 11g or so a stack (with people listing at 13g even, don't know if those sell or not) right before raid days. I don't even bother undercutting on mana pots as I know they will sell.

For whatever reason, the price of dreaming glory allows for arbitrage on mana pots. With 2 stacks of DG selling at 12g maximum or so, and felweed at 8g, it convert into about 20-25 mana potions, or ~15g profit on average for this quantity.

Yes, the appraiser tab is the Auctioneer Advanced posting interface.

One of the bottom scanner evaluators is called "appraiser". It is basically a resale evaluator - it looks for items that are priced lower than Auctioneer thinks it should be worth. The reason it is called "appraiser" is that it uses the stat you've selected for that item in the appraiser interface (whereas the "resale" evaluator always uses the "market" price).

So when bottomscanner marks a possible purchase as appraiser, it is saying it is a candidate for resale.

As an aside, questions like this will probably get answered more quickly in the Auctioneer forums. I just happened to be passing through.

Interestingly enough, Large Brilliant SHards have completely tanked on my server. Three weeks ago they were sitting around 14-20g each, and now are sitting ~4g.

I'm quite tempted to pick up a couple stacks of them for that price, but I'm nervous, as I'm unsure of being able to unload them for a profit anytime soon. Interestingly enough Greater Eternals are still hovering around 9-10g each currently. I made back a huge chunk of my money invested in leveling a JC by just disenchanting every item I made, sand rings of "The Bear" or "Of Agility". I've been selling those for 40-50g and recouped 50-60% of the money I spent going from 225-300.

If you want to aoe farm with your mage,you can try the area south of area 52 with all the consortium rep guys with zaxxis marks. I AOE farmed there when I wanted to get consortium exalted and it has been a breeze to gather up mobs and aoe them. They drop lots of netherweave, the prison keys and marks which can be sold

I done AOE then using deep arcane and deep fire before but not frost, but I have seen frost mages pull big packs and aoe them down. But they have so little hp,so I brute force them down using arcane explosion.

I buy Netherweave for 15s or less per.
I buy Adamantite Ore for 1.1g or less per.
I buy Fel Iron Ore for 33s or less per.

Then I prospect the ore for blues and sell them raw. I never bought any recipes and the profit margins for most cut gems are generally low, 10g or less, which means that I'd need to sell 40 of each cut before I saw a profit for them and I was too slow to the JC market to really make a mark there. Even selling them raw I see a pretty good profit.

I then make [Azure Moonstone Ring], [Fel Iron Blood Ring], and [Golden Draenite Ring] from the green gems and vendor the rest of them (not enough profit to deal with them on the AH). I mail those rings off to my enchanter to DE them, resulting in a bunch of [Arcane Dust] and [Lesser Planar Essence]s.

The dust goes to my tailor who makes [Arcanoweave Bracers] which go back to my enchanter to generate [Large Prismatic Shard]s.

So basically from buying some ore and cloth when it's cheap, I get all my enchanting mats, blue gems to sell on the AH, and some random junk to vendor. There's some mailing rigamarole involved but I find that shuttling the stuff and disenchanting/prospecting is much more fun that farming mobs (and can be done while watching TV or generally just not paying much attention).

As a druid herbalist, I enjoy farming regular slave pens. There are 5-8 nodes available, plus a chest that a t5 tank can clear relatively easily. You can farm the place 5 times in 20 minutes, or you can alternate SP and UB, and it will take close to an hour to do. One node requires soothe animals, and another requires a bit of luck plus a sprint to the exit if you pull. One node is on a platform and inaccessible as far as I know. There is a chest that rogues can solo loot in heroic UB 50% of the time.

You can wall walk to get up to it.

If you're talking about the Ancient Lichen up on the platform in Slave Pens, you can get to it, you just have to wall-jump a bit.

YouTube - Slave pens herb

You can do it if the mobs are there if you're a class that can stealth, I do it on my Druid alt all the time.

web filters from work i must ask -

Are these typically BoP or BoE blues that the summoned elites drop? I have well over a thousand apexis shards to burn and have a few friends that do as well - would just like to know if I need to find a friend who is an enchanter to come along.

The link is actually referring to the vendor bought Ogri'la reputation items which require 1 Apexis Crystal and 50 Apexis Shards to purchase. I assume the process goes:

Pay 35 shards to summon a demon.
Kill demon, collect loot (with a chance at a BoE blue) and an Apexis Crystal.
Pay another 50 shards and an Apexis Crystal to purchase an Apexis Cloak (or one of the other reputation items) from vendor.
D/E the Apexis Cloak into a Large Prismatic Shard.

This would require that the enchanter be present during the demon kill to collect the Apexis Crystal and pay the additional 50 Apexis Shards for the vendor item. However, anybody can pay the 35 shards to summon the demon.

When Blizzard rectified the Winterviel gift mail problem by making the patterns available at the goblin vendors, they didn't flag the vendors to be hostile towards the opposite faction. If you can make it to the vendor in either Ironforge or Orgimmar, you can easily buy [Pattern: Red Winter Clothes] or [Pattern: Green Winter Clothes].

I made about 200g within two hours of buying the pattern in Ironforge, and that was without barking.

Just a note to the above post - the PATTERN is BOP, so the only thing you can sell are the finished clothes.

How much are you guys earning on the Shartuul event on avg? Prices of all the items have dropped so low that I'm sometimes better off just farming LPS. My last Badge of Tenacy went for 600g (no competition on ah, fourth day listed).

Is it just my server economy or is the event slowly not worth the time anymore?

I've been making great money with it still, in terms of how little time it takes, but I can't get the damn [Depleted Crystal Focus] to drop at all. Is there a trick that I'm missing? I haven't found one in days, and I really like to have 4 of them on hand per event, just because I'm still learning it.

Alternately, is there a trick I'm missing to doing the event with no use of specials at all? Did I miss something really obvious? I usually do pretty well until Shartuul resists a Siphon Life, and then it goes slowly downhill from there.

Shartuul epics should naturally come down in price as more and more people get better and better at the event, thereby increasing the supply of those items. However, on my server at least, it's still profitable to do the event.

Shartuul is tough. I consider myself a Shartuul "pro," as I can do the event without any crystals almost 100% of the time. But, as you've pointed out, a resisted Siphon Life, Shartuul being lame with his Immolate -> Incinerate/Eye Stalk spawn timers, or any other little thing can really mess the event up and force you to pop a Chaos Strike.

I've started popping the focuses just to get him down quicker, stack the flame buffets, chaos strike, heal to full and burn him a good 20-30%. Problem is I've had the Eye bug and not spawn the last two attempts, I got my darkrune back, but 15 wasted minutes is annoying.

How do you get your rune back? Everytime it bugged for me I just had to cancel it and lose my rune, which happened 3times so far.

And I don't know maybe I suck at the event, but I don't bother doing shaartuul without 2stones so I can chaos strike, because everytime I tried to syphon, switch fire, dps some, then switch shadow, consume the syphon, and switch back etc, I'd get caught in shadow or fire stance with ice on cooldown and get hit by an incinerate. Now I just syphon after he incinerates, and the rest of the time I stay in fire, and kill mindflay eyes with pyroblasts. I have to chaos strike once per fight, but it seems more consistent. Oh and obviously I start the fight at 100%health, I have no problem killing everything else, so I don't believe it's me being bad, but more like me having shitty luck.

I believe the Incinerate is only really painful if you're debuffed by Immolate. So long as you use the Fire form cleanse to get it off, you shouldn't need to bother Ice Blocking.