I've actually thought about this a few month ago, but could never test the following steps due to my server warglaive population. Now WoR posted about 40% drop rate for a certain guild this comes up in my mind again.

You need to meet following conditions:
- Server restart - item cache cleared
- Noone with glaives logged yet or it has never dropped
If we meet this 2 conditions server will disconnect us whenever we try to link warglaives in chat.

Loot is generated upon mob spawn (blue confirmed)

If you think about this for a second all you need to do is keep spawning BT instances until warglaives can be linked in chat - that would mean this particular instance contains one

ps. That would also explain why our server had warglaive link on the 1st Nihilum kill, yet they haven't got the drop - some other spawned instance ID had warglaive

p.p.s. I realise it is a game mechanics abuse borderline, if you find this post inappropriate feel free to remove it

/discuss

Warglaive links were available because the glaives can be targetted during phase 2 as some kind of perverse joke on rogues/fury warriors in unlucky guilds. But as first in line for warglaives in my guild, I wholeheartedly support any attempt to ensure a drop.


On a side note regarding raid ID's, I've been watching my guild's ID for the past few weeks and each Tuesday when we clear out Hyjal and head into BT, our raid IDs for the two instances end up being the same. i.e. this week both instances are ID 2372642, last week they were both 2370020. Does anyone else notice this happening?

The warglaives are in their own loot table, with about a 5% drop chance. In 15 kills, the chances of getting 1 warglaive is about 46%. The chances of 2 warglaives is 21%, 3 is 9%, 4 is 4.6%, 5 is 2.1%, and 6 is 0.98%.

Since there are more than 102 guilds killing Illidan, statistically speaking, it's perfectly expected that one of them got 6 warglaives in 15 kills.

I wish this where true

Sadly our best kill so far dropped our first Glaive ...

Although globaly this kill might have been realy bad when compared to the other kills that day ?
Is the "worseness" just compared in the realmpool or on the continent ?
Maybe its a revard for having the "worsest" kill last week ?

My theory revolved arround sacrificing certain classes to the Mob in the right order ...

So this statisticly proves (again) that loot is truly random and not in any way seeded

We'll be able to tell in 2.4. If his GUID changes, chances are good that his loot table did too (since, at that point, it's a new instance of a mob object, by all indications, and from the design that's been hinted at, something in the object constructor is responsible for loot table generation). I'd be willing to bet that the GUID does indeed change.

Of course it's seeded. Non-quantum computers can't do truly random number generation. However, the seed is really very likely to just be whatever the value of the last random number the server generated is. Given the population of a server and the number of random numbers being generated at any given time, gaming that number is effectively impossible.

Most "loot conspiracies" boil down to the fact that you run 25-man raid instances once per week, which is 52 samples per year, and even in a 2-chances-per-kill-to-drop scenario, 104 samples is a piss-poor number for drawing statistical conclusions from.

Is Loot determined when the moster dies?

Drysc revealed just about as much as you're gonna learn from this post. However, finding a way to control the loot generated is obviously still very difficult.

Loot is generated when the mob is created, not killed.

There is a variable that determines the loot the mob carries.

The variable according to Drysc is a time stamp.

The mobs aren't actually created until someone enters the area.


Now obviously there are varying degrees of control that we can or cannot possibly control as players. However, if the time stamp is in seconds for example, it'll be next to impossible to always time something, as server time doesn't display seconds, and I imagine that since mobs are based on the server this would be the most accurate scale. If the time stamp is in minutes that's another story. There are many mobs that can be player spawned to test this theory by simply spawning the same mob at the same time every day. This is a crude simplified way of doing it mind you, because there are still other variables to consider.

Another such variable to consider is if the time stamp for the loot itself changes. Does it change hourly? Does it change daily, does it change weekly with every server restart, that's another important test. if you have 2 groups kill a mob that spawns at the same time at say 6:47(I RNG'd this :P) and they get the same loot, and then have them repeat the process the next and day they get different loot, it would be impossible/pointless to determine when the item you want is on the time stamp you need.

In addition spawning monsters in an instance is also a question to consider, do ALL mobs in an instance spawn upon creation, or do you have to get to certain parts of the instance before they spawn, for example is Sumpremus and all of the dragon riders up when you're fighting Naj? Is Mother Shazz and the Council up while you're taking down Teron/RoS/Bloodboil? These are all things that need to be tested and experimented with.

All that being said, I doubt you'd find people to find the time to dedicate them selves to such precise testing. >_>

Even knowing all of this, there's still probably no way to force loot generation. To quote Robert R. Coveyou said "The generation of random numbers is too important to be left to chance."

I had always been under the impression that loot was based on instance ID. Mostly from anecdotal evidence pre-BC of a raid getting the exact same drops from MC two weeks in a row under the same ID and bosses dying and then getting reset due to a bug or server reset and dropping the exact same loot.

If GUID can be seen in 2.4 and changes at every wipe it would seem incredibly easy to just start tracking which ones drop warglaives and clear to Illidan one night and let a rogue (who is probably the only one interested enough to do this) continually start and reset him until you get one proven to drop a glaive and then just sit in the instance until the next day. I know I'd be willing to stay up all night one night if it meant I'd get one the next day. (assuming the raid didn't then blow it and wipe)

Edit @Emeraude - Once you're in the temple proper (past Supremus) you can do a /target [insert boss here] to any boss in the dungeon, so they are all spawned by that point at least. Hyjal, however, certainly operates under different rules.

This is somewhat of an intrigueing post for me since i'm waiting for a MH Glaive.

But can anyone actually confirm that a piece of loot that normally couldn't be linked, can be linked between boss spawn, and the killing of a boss? Currently this is the piece of information that is the crux of this theory, and what stands between people getting on demand warglaives, and not.

The chance of being able to find out through linking, even if it works, is pretty slim. Items can be linked under the following two conditions:

- Someone on your server has the item(s), and this person has logged in since the last time your server went down.
- Someone in your battlegroup with the item(s) has participated in a battleground or arena match since the last time your server went down.

Having killed a boss that can potentially drop an item does not necessarily mean you can link all items the boss can potentially drop. I speak from experience with trying it out here, we were the first guild on our server to progress in Black Temple and Hyjal, and I was incapable of linking the [Tide-stomper's Greaves] after our first few High Warlord Naj'entus kills (They have also never dropped for us, much to my annoyance).

I would imagine that the loot *is* actually generated when the mob is killed. The decision of what loot will drop, however, is made when the mob spawns. Basically when the mob spawns, the time of birth is saved, and that is then used to seed the rng that generates the loot when the mob dies. From a programming point of view it wouldn't make much sense to introduce new items into the game world, unless there is a chance that they might actually be seen by players (i.e. the mob can be looted).

Based on the blues saying loot is created on boss spawn, it is very likely that mobs that spawn different forms or IDs of itself generate new tables as they change. A good example of this would be C'Thun who should generate a new table everytime he went into phase 2. I can't imagine a loot table being associated with his phase 1 form. Quite possibly this applies to Illidan as well when he changes between Demon and Humanoid forms.