Denogran

No, wasn't assuming that. We cleared the first two bosses in Hyjal yesterday (waiting for another healer to log on to work on SW), and our epic drops were limited to two crappy BoE LW patterns, which certainly wasn't a low drop rate for us. I'd say on an average clear, of all 4 waves of trash, we get 2 patterns and an epic item. So to clear 7 waves of trash and get 3 items and a plans? Not too shabby at all, and your drop rate will almost certainly decrease with the items and probably slightly increase with the patterns.

 

Ricter

Okay, understandable. Part of the "complaint" was until our last trash clear, our only drop had been the hammer. After the fourth run is when I made this post over on the WoW raids forums. Since then we got the 2 chokers and the pattern on our last clear, but I still wanted to see what the general opinion.

 

Cos-

Ask EJ how long it took them to get a glaive. The RNG is the NotsoRNG.

 

Mideci

Really these posts should be getting the infraction hammer, because they happen over and over. I refer you to statistics 101. The amount of trash loot you will get will vary wildly. Onyxia does not deep breath more. Etc. etc. "....it just seems like quite an odd coincidence to have good drop rates until 2.4 and then suddenly have the rate drop off. "

It isn't odd.

Coincidence is this thing people notice when it's interesting to them. The trillion independent events that don't intersect in ways that interest them they don't notice. What this means is that you are stunned when a friend of yours from Brazil visits New York at the same time as you do. "What a coincidence!" But you are not even aware of the scores of friends you have you don't see, nor the other millions in New York you don't know or recognize.

A guild on Stormrage had the polearm drop in Sunwell 3 times in 5 minutes. A piece of toast also appears to have an image of the Virgin Mary. Do we have to keep having this conversation?

 

Ricter

If you had actually bothered to read what I said, rather than getting all uppity about it, I started off by saying that I understood that it could just be random loot being random. I looked up my situation (a guild with few - no "attuned" members), particularly on these forums, and found no discussion of a possible change in drop rate. Hence the question.

You don't have to "refer me to statistics 101". Again, I said previously that I realized it was within likely probabilities. However, in your eagerness to jump on my question, you failed to realize that it is possible that they did change the drop rate. I did bring actual numbers, exact drops, and experience before and after the patch. Sure, 5 clears to a boss is not anything of a respectable sample size. However, if a decent number of other guilds that were also largely un-attuned to hyjal had noticed the same thing, that would have given us a large sample size to work with and possibly being to analyze it.

What if they have changed the drop rate? How does that suggestion even come up with your comment? We have to wait until one guild gets enough of a sample size to prove anything? That seems more than a bit tedious to simply prevent you from being slightly peeved.

If the mods feel that I deserve an infraction for asking a question without my sample size being anything really reasonable, that's fine, their forums. But unless you're a moderator or have some influence with them, these aren't your forums. Considering that you're so willing to critique others for what you perceive as infractions, you should probably reference the rules themselves and realize that it's not your job to do so.

 

PSGarak

It's true, Onyxia did actually deep breath more one time. There's a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem here in that you can't get a decent sample size without consulting a forum such as this, but you should get at least some preliminary data by asking around your realm forum and possibly the WoW R&D forum, and waiting a month or something. The rule of thumb for statistical significance is 30, and please try your damndest to make it 30 random/average clears, not 30 clears where people found more drops than normal. EJ in general is the place where you should come in saying "I think the drop rate increased, here's some statistically significant data" rather than "Is there data showing the drop rate increased?"

http://sig.gamerdna.com/quizzes/INFL...erks/Garak.png

 

dinesh

Sorry to dredge up a month old set of posts, but I finally had enough of this bug, and I don't think I saw anything about it in the 2.4.2 change list.

In any case, Nisu gave a good way to fix it without needing a macro/action button. But if you're too lazy to do that, and just have a problem getting everything on one macro line, the following shorthand might be useful:

 

Mideci

That would be a terrible way to do it actually. Usually it's someone coming in with one guild's anecdotal evidence that restarts this conversation every time. The problem with these posts, and I'm sure I'll be corrected here if I'm wrong, is that everyone who makes one, thinks they are only one bringing in a new: "Has the drop rate changed?" post. Which leads to the clutter. Which leads to the countless replies of "random loot is random." Etc. etc.

I have a post somewhere here where I reference a clever thing I learned in business school: Anecdote is the singular of data. That said, it's the collection of anecdotes that form data. Rather than ask based on your non-data whether something has changed, why not pull some data together. And when doing so, be careful not to select on the dependent variable. In other words, don't pull only Hyjal runs where people get a lot of loot. And don't pull only Hyjal runs where people don't get a lot of loot. Pull a random sample of enough Hyjal runs and you'll doubtless -- in this case -- discern that nothing has changed.

As an aside, I remember well the patch where Onyxia did deep breath more. All the mythology of what caused her to deep breath was put to the test in that patch as people tried desparately to combat it. Clump, don't clump, etc. It turns out -- per the devs -- that Onyxia could deep breath with a certain percentage change whenever she moved while in the air. In that patch, the chance was inadvertantly upped to a ridiculous level. People love to see patterns where there are none. It's a human nature thing. Return to your regularly scheduled 2.4 discussion.

 

Ricter

You're still missing my original point. The only reason that I actually posted this was because I did search through the EJ forums (and many others) and I couldn't find any comments about the drop rate for "unattuned" guilds. Hence the post.

You suggest collaboration, but how do I do that if I'm not allowed to post anything? My server is pathetically small (we still haven't opened the badge gear vendor) and it's not exactly easy to find guilds that are now doing Hyjal that don't have any members attuned. I tried using the WoW raid forums, but I'm pretty sure you can guess how that went.

Again, I understand how statistics work, and that you need to pull a random sample. But how would you suggest I do that when there isn't any information already available, and you suggest that I shouldn't post on the forums about it?

Like I said originally, before any of this started, I understood that it could be random loot being random. Your posts seem to be recycled, rather than actually reading what I'm saying (as unimportant as you may think my posts are).

 

Aonea

And again, you are not listening to what everyone else is telling you. Random loot is RANDOM. It does not matter whether your raid has done attunement quests, whether you have 4 Fury warriors in your group, or whether one of your druid gives Jaina a little private dance to get her all hot and bothered. The only thing which affects Hyjal trash loot is whether you kill the first wave within the time limit to enable loot to drop on the subsequent waves. That is it.

As for your evidence, I counter with my own experience. My guild started Hyjal back in Dec, roughly. Many times,i can remember not getting much of anything form a full clear of Hyjal. And other weeks, we would be swimming in recipes and get 2 Hammers, 3 tank cloaks, and multiple fire damage necks. It just varies from week to week.

Think about your assumption for a moment. Why would Blizzard specifically create a script to reduce the amount of trash drops just for raids who have people who were not attuned? The purpose of removing the attunement was specifically to allow guilds to experience those zones and to get the loot. Putting in a check such as that not only defeats that purpose, it would have required them to specifically code that in 2.4 since before then, such a check would not have been used.

TLDR version: You are over-analyzing the situation. Random loot is random.

 

thesmoosh

I feel like I'm in an episode of the twilight zone. Somehow the EJ forums and the Generals have been switched, yet EJ kept the same readable formatting O.o.

 

Tanoh

You're also missing one big thing; WoW doesn't care about guilds. You don't have to be in a guild to be able to do Hyjal. Being a guild is not a requirement for raiding, it's the most common way though but there are a lot of succesful groups of smaller guilds doing end game content also. Nor does WoW (as far as we know) keep track of attunement for the guild, only for the individual players.

It's actually pretty impossible for WoW to use the information in any sane way. Before 2.4 we had, and I suspect a lot of other guilds also, a whole bunch of members not attuned as they weren't that active raiders. So if we bring three of those to a post-2.4 Hyjal should we get "punished"? What if we bring only one? It doesn't make any sense, but the biggest argument why it can't be like this is that being in a guild is not required for raiding. What about unguilded raiders?

As said before in this thread, it's random nothing more and nothing less. The human mind wants to find patterns where there are none.

 

◊ Kaubel

OK, that's enough discussion about drop rates.