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Old 04/20/09, 12:15 PM   #1001
mindwalkr
Glass Joe
 
Blood Elf Death Knight
 
Dunemaul
Originally Posted by Limbo View Post
Well, I've been quietly "encouraging" some of the price drops on my server at the moment. My idea being that spending 3k a day to keep the prices down so I can buy up 20k/day of undervalued "stuff" with a future earning potential of 10K is a good deal.
I did completely the opposite Thursday/Friday and over the weekend. I specifically pushed the price up on Books of Glyph Mastery. First to 5k, then gradually lowering it to 4k and finally yesterday to 2k each. Offering a specific price in trade chat is a wonderful thing. This may seem crazy at first, but it has the following effects.

1) Inscriptionists have to pay WAY too much for the books. So they set the price of glyphs high and try to keep them high. This has the added benefit that all the normal glyphs climb in 'value' in the general public's perception. I managed to sell 'normal glyphs like Obliterate for 200g on the weekend when there were none available.

2) My favorite. The other guys spend all their cash and don't see a recovery of the money based on the glyphs they are selling. Basically, I made a lot of people go broke. This helps the "nobody makes money with inscription" crowd. It cost me about 60k to do this (of which 40k was earned on the AH over the weekend).

3) There are a lot of books listed on the AH for 3-5k as of Monday morning. They are not selling because of (2). I expect to see a market over-correction and take advantage of it.

When this whole thing blows over, I expect:
- to have ALL the new glyphs
- to have spent a little more than if I had waited for the price to come down
- to have less competitors
- to have competitors with less of the new glyphs

My wife told me I was being mean.... I told her it was 'just business'.

Last edited by mindwalkr : 04/20/09 at 4:10 PM.

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Old 04/20/09, 12:18 PM   #1002
Mugsley
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Dark Iron
I've been able to stay afloat by selling flasks, which at one point were selling for double their mats value. I tried making some frost wyrm, but the price of icethorn doesn't make them worthwhile in the long term. It was more of a speculation batch. Endless Rage seem to be hovering around 25g with dips/spikes in either direction. Goldclover is cheap when compared to Icethorn, so I can still profit. It's not much and I'm continuously afraid of flooding the market (I don't post more than 8 auctions of 1 flask), so I haven't made amazing money.

I'm still holding onto my other mats. I'm hoping in 3-4 weeks the crafting patterns will start making appearances and mats will slowly start creeping up.

I haven't seen much BOE gear in Ulduar yet. Is it worth getting back into armor/weapon speculation again?

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Old 04/20/09, 12:33 PM   #1003
Ambika
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Undead Warrior
 
Earthen Ring
Originally Posted by Mugsley View Post
I haven't seen much BOE gear in Ulduar yet. Is it worth getting back into armor/weapon speculation again?
The difficulty of Ulduar hasn't kicked in yet. People are still slugging it out and haven't been discouraged...yet. If blizzard keeps the difficulty at this level then people will fall back to naxx and start gearing up that way.


The straw hasn't dropped on the proverbial horse yet. Give it till the end of the month then see. A good gauge would be checking MMO-champion's blue tracker for posts stating "OMG ULDUAR IS HRD!" and responses by blizzard employees stating they were "looking into this". Once they start toeing that line some nerfing is coming for Ulduar.

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Old 04/20/09, 12:35 PM   #1004
iii3
Glass Joe
 
Night Elf Priest
 
Khaz'goroth (EU)
Flasks of Endless Rage were about 50-55g the day after patch day on my server. Mats value was about 60-70g / 2 Flasks. This was quite a surprise, given that the old flasks were at 55-60g pre patch.

However the market was quite flooded. I sold numerous stacks for ~800-900g in the trade channel since I expected the price to drop.

The next day the flask price went down to 40, then 35g. Yesterday evening the flask price was at 25-30g, several pages of flasks in the ah.

Frost Lotus moved since patch day from ~25g (pre patch) to 35g (the first days after patch) to 37-40g atm.


Any similiar observations on other servers?

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Old 04/20/09, 2:07 PM   #1005
ozweepay
Banned
 
Blood Elf Priest
 
Archimonde
20-20 Hindsight

A lot of people (myself included) stocked up on item-enhancement items: enchanting mats, buckles, leg threads/kits, gems, hoping to sell at a profit when Ulduar loot started dropping. Now we have a lot of sellers and very few buyers due to Ulduar's difficulty. This may partly recover tomorrow when S6 launches.

Raid-support items are doing well: herbs for flasks, flasks themselves, buff foods.

The Glyph market has been the most volatile and interesting: the boom last Tuesday was beyond what many scribes had prepared for. I had just leveled inscription the week before and still made 6k in 2 hours. Mature and prepared scribes made a lot more. The [Book of Glyph Mastery] market has been pretty crazy, and the resulting glyphs vary widely in prices depending on the number of scribes with the glyph along with the glyph's desirability. PvP-oriented glyphs should sell well briefly this week after the new season begins.

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Old 04/20/09, 2:41 PM   #1006
Mugsley
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Dwarf Hunter
 
Dark Iron
Originally Posted by iii3 View Post
Flasks of Endless Rage were about 50-55g the day after patch day on my server. Mats value was about 60-70g / 2 Flasks. This was quite a surprise, given that the old flasks were at 55-60g pre patch.

However the market was quite flooded. I sold numerous stacks for ~800-900g in the trade channel since I expected the price to drop.

The next day the flask price went down to 40, then 35g. Yesterday evening the flask price was at 25-30g, several pages of flasks in the ah.

Frost Lotus moved since patch day from ~25g (pre patch) to 35g (the first days after patch) to 37-40g atm.


Any similiar observations on other servers?

I had picked up only maybe 30-40 Frost Lotus before 3.1 for around 12-13g each. They were selling for 17-19g by the end of last week. My first batch of flasks, thanks to procs, worked out to something like 11-12g each for mats cost; and I was selling them for 22-25g. Numbers have changed since then, and I didn't sell enough to say I made a major profit (which is part of my problem).

I've only looked at Endless Rage and Frost Wyrm flask prices. Tonight or tomorrow I'll likely investigate the prices no the other Wrath flasks and see what's going on. I don't know if Ulduar tanks are actually using Stoneblood or not. I saw a few healers last night using Distilled Wisdom at one point. If I knew more about the mechanics of spell power and how it relates to healing and spellcasting, I could probably make some halfway decent money.

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Old 04/20/09, 3:13 PM   #1007
Ambika
Piston Honda
 
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Undead Warrior
 
Earthen Ring
Originally Posted by Mugsley View Post
I. I don't know if Ulduar tanks are actually using Stoneblood or not. .
Yes. Yes we are as we need all the HP we can possibly get for these 10-15k attacks that drain us in 2-3hits.

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Old 04/20/09, 4:29 PM   #1008
Crypta
Glass Joe
 
Undead Priest
 
Argent Dawn
Originally Posted by iii3 View Post
Flasks of Endless Rage were about 50-55g the day after patch day on my server. Mats value was about 60-70g / 2 Flasks. This was quite a surprise, given that the old flasks were at 55-60g pre patch.

However the market was quite flooded. I sold numerous stacks for ~800-900g in the trade channel since I expected the price to drop.

The next day the flask price went down to 40, then 35g. Yesterday evening the flask price was at 25-30g, several pages of flasks in the ah.

Frost Lotus moved since patch day from ~25g (pre patch) to 35g (the first days after patch) to 37-40g atm.


Any similiar observations on other servers?

Yes, I've seen similar things on my server. The cost of Flasks is going down and the price of Frost Lotus is going up.

What's interesting, however, is that the demand for Flasks of Endless Rage is so high that you can list them for 40-45 gold and still have a decent chance of selling. Buyers seem to be gobbling up the lower priced listings so the patient seller can potentially score a larger profit per unit.

I'm expecting to see somone make a play on Frost Lotus. It happened once before, pre 3.1, where someone bought out all the Frost Lotus on the AH (price was ~18-20 at the time) and re-listed it for 40g. Fortunately I was fairly insulated from the move as I made it a regular habit to buy up stacks of reasonably priced Frost Lotus whenever I could find it.

My concern is that the number of sellers will increase.. which will both lower the cost of flasks and increase the cost of Frost Lotus. I typically farm the Lichbloom and Gold Clover, and buy Frost Lotus to supplement the small number the RNG decides to grace me with. That's how I make my money and the price of Frost Lotus is something I have the least control over.

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Old 04/20/09, 4:51 PM   #1009
Starfire
Honorary Toastr
 
Night Elf Priest
 
Dragonblight
Surprised no one mentioned it, but I believe a main reason the price of gems has been dropping is because gems can now be bought for 10k honor.

In addition, with the arena point reset, people with extra arena points are dumping their points into honor. 1k arena points => 10k honor => 1 scarlet ruby.

And of course, with the lack of new items for valor badges (and heroism badges) there has to be people dumping their badges into scarlet rubies as well. Additionally, Ulduar 10 drops valor badges, so there is an increase in the amount of valor badges circulating for some people.

I really don't think gems will jump back to their pre-3.1 levels. Of course as I stated previously, when new pvp gear comes out, there will be a rise. But don't expect a rise to 100g-150g per.

Originally Posted by arison View Post
Everyone should start from the same place and rise based on their abilities, desires, and schedule. No one plays MMOs to *be* powerful, they play MMOs to *become* powerful. It's the journey, stupid. The rarer loot is, the more cherished it is when you get it, but only so long as there is a reasonable expectation to get it. The rarer loot is, the better it feels when you kill a boss or when $AWESOME_TRINKET drops.

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Old 04/20/09, 5:53 PM   #1010
Dochas
Von Kaiser
 
Gnome Mage
 
Crushridge
At least on my server just about everything has plummeted. Lichbloom has gone from 60-70 a stack to 40, Saronite Ore has dropped about 3g a stack (21 to 18), Runed Scarlet Rubies from 80-90 to 65-70, even Frostweave has dropped from 12g a stack selling near instantly to 7g a stack.

I'm starting to stockpile herbs/ore and picking up the occasional really low items on the AH (example: Veiled Monarch Topaz for 15g) in hopes that prices at least partially rebound. AH Deposits, tiny profit margins and everybody dumping stock (which means 2 seconds after you post an item theres 4 other listings just under yours) make it hardly worth it to list anything right now.

Hopefully in a couple weeks when the flood has subsided and people start making more headway in Ulduar I'll be able to finally sell some stuff at a decent price. Either that or back to rotating dailies on multiple chars as a main income source.

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Old 04/20/09, 5:58 PM   #1011
Kilgore
Glass Joe
 
Night Elf Rogue
 
Ursin
I know a few pages back there was talk of making a small profit off of buying borean leather stacks for 9g or less off the AH then crafting Nerbrin legguards and vendoring them (5g and a few silver). This has worked out for me so far and I was wondering if any tailors would want to try this for Frostweave cloth. Right now, frostweave is like 6-8g a stack on my server so it should have a pretty nice turn around.

Or do the tailors have another use (other than bags) that's a quick and dirty money maker?

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Old 04/20/09, 6:04 PM   #1012
abnet
Glass Joe
 
Blood Elf Paladin
 
Firetree
Originally Posted by Kilgore View Post
I know a few pages back there was talk of making a small profit off of buying borean leather stacks for 9g or less off the AH then crafting Nerbrin legguards and vendoring them (5g and a few silver). This has worked out for me so far and I was wondering if any tailors would want to try this for Frostweave cloth. Right now, frostweave is like 6-8g a stack on my server so it should have a pretty nice turn around.

Or do the tailors have another use (other than bags) that's a quick and dirty money maker?
One thing I would do as a tailor (I do this on my bank alt) is keep an eye on prices of frostsavage gear. Demand seems to be decent, and you can essentially buy materials for a piece for around 50g on my realm then relist it at 99-139g for a relatively fast sale. I'd pretty much keep each piece of the set on the AH at any given time with these margins, until competition started to come around.

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Old 04/20/09, 6:59 PM   #1013
Stella
Von Kaiser
 
XCX
Blood Elf Mage
 
No WoW Account
Originally Posted by Dochas View Post
At least on my server just about everything has plummeted. Lichbloom has gone from 60-70 a stack to 40, Saronite Ore has dropped about 3g a stack (21 to 18), Runed Scarlet Rubies from 80-90 to 65-70, even Frostweave has dropped from 12g a stack selling near instantly to 7g a stack.

I'm starting to stockpile herbs/ore and picking up the occasional really low items on the AH (example: Veiled Monarch Topaz for 15g) in hopes that prices at least partially rebound. AH Deposits, tiny profit margins and everybody dumping stock (which means 2 seconds after you post an item theres 4 other listings just under yours) make it hardly worth it to list anything right now.

Hopefully in a couple weeks when the flood has subsided and people start making more headway in Ulduar I'll be able to finally sell some stuff at a decent price. Either that or back to rotating dailies on multiple chars as a main income source.
I don't understand why there is any expectation that prices on Gems, Enchanting Mats, Herbs, etc are going to bounce back up. Gem markets are flooded because Saronite Ore is incredibly easy to gather and prospect, add in additional sources from badges and honor and how is the flood ever going to stop? Gaining Enchanting mats from professions is just as easy because again, the gathering in Northrend is so robust and simple, nothing is in short supply. Herbs were already abundant before 3.1 and the increase from 3.1 is pushing prices lower. The only thing that would push prices up would be an increase in demand that outweighed both the standing supply and the continuous gathering, which just doesn't seem likely.

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Old 04/20/09, 8:23 PM   #1014
Dochas
Von Kaiser
 
Gnome Mage
 
Crushridge
Originally Posted by Stella View Post
I don't understand why there is any expectation that prices on Gems, Enchanting Mats, Herbs, etc are going to bounce back up. Gem markets are flooded because Saronite Ore is incredibly easy to gather and prospect, add in additional sources from badges and honor and how is the flood ever going to stop? Gaining Enchanting mats from professions is just as easy because again, the gathering in Northrend is so robust and simple, nothing is in short supply. Herbs were already abundant before 3.1 and the increase from 3.1 is pushing prices lower. The only thing that would push prices up would be an increase in demand that outweighed both the standing supply and the continuous gathering, which just doesn't seem likely.
Well one thing that could stop the flood is lack of profit. I mean when your looking at gems that even 2 weeks ago sold for 40-50g selling for 20 then prospecting becomes a loss, you would need a scarlet ruby basically every 2-3 stacks to make a profit and on average thats not going to happen. That could cut supply at least temporarily, then prices could rise, starting the cycle again as people start prospecting and dropping prices back down.

Time has a value, if you can make 200g doing dailies or in the same amount of time make 350g farming herbs then you farm herbs but if the price on herbs drops to the point that you only make 200-230g then why not just do dailies.

So I guess thats my hope, I'm not doing too much purchasing in case this doesn't happen, but my personal stockpile can't lose much more value so it can chill for a while and see if this comes to pass.

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Old 04/21/09, 1:43 AM   #1015
Limbo
Glass Joe
 
Night Elf Hunter
 
Aman'Thul
Relax guys

Prices are down for a variety of reasons but one of the crucial ones is that its costing a LOT to raid at the moment and raiders are the very often the ones who are willing to spend.

As a hunter, I'm spend 100g on ammo, 120g on flasks, 300g on food (I make Fish Feasts so the rest don't have to since gold isn't an issue for me) and god knows how much in repairs 4 nights a week. Discounting the fish feast, that is still easily 300 to 400g a night for most raiders.

Add dual spec, expensive new glyphs to the equation and you have a LOT of customers that are suddenly down 2k at the start of 3.1 and bleeding around 1k a week raiding.

Most raiders don't have 20k in the bank. When it starts hurting them and they are forced to farm or work for their gold, they WILL be more selective.

In a sense, the market is still spending, in fact I would even say its spending MORE than it did pre 3.1. It's just that the gold isn't going to the areas most people hedged their bets on pre 3.1.

Places its going to and how it has worked out for me:
1. Consumables. I did good here, buying up all the frost lotus 2 weeks pre 3.1 and up to now so I can keep prices up. The is no end to this consumable rush at the moment.
2. Glyphs. I didn't manage to get into the market so can only speculate. From my friends who are front runners in the market, its getting a lot of inflow.

Places its not going to:
1. Vanity items. Market is down. Number of people willing to pay for exotic pets and other vanity items are way down.
2. Enchanting and crafting mats. A LOT of people stockpiled for 3.1 speculating on price increases. Now that it hasn't come and they are bleeding in the wallet, a lot of the smaller players are dumping stock just to meet expenses. They are getting jittery and there is not much you can do except sit tight and wait it out if you can afford to. If you can afford more, this is a great time to buy. There is very little risk in buying cheap ore or leather or cloth if you have ways to dispose of it thru a crafting profession.

Will the market recover? Probably.
Will it be soon? Probably not.

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Old 04/21/09, 4:01 AM   #1016
Nilaus
Von Kaiser
 
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Draenei Hunter
 
Dragonmaw (EU)
Originally Posted by Limbo View Post
Relax guys

...

Will the market recover? Probably.
Will it be soon? Probably not.
The financial crisis has hit WoW

I've found that a lot of people are leveling new professions, so a lot of old world mats are in high demand. This can be exploited by cornering the market since it is relatively small and there are few if any players.
Buying all mithril and thorium and relisting it can make a bit of cash for minimal effort. I've even found that prospecting Thorium at 44g can turn a profit. The gems needed for 270-300 JC sell for 25+g on my server right now.

Real men have infractions on their EJ account!

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Old 04/22/09, 11:05 AM   #1017
Zupal
Von Kaiser
 
Blood Elf Paladin
 
Blackrock
Originally Posted by Douglas View Post
It also provides a daily quest mechanism for raising the reputation with those factions. It's intended to replace Ruencloth as a mechanism for getting that rep. So my guess is that the price of Runecloth is going to drop as a result, not increase.

We'll see.
Looks like prices while initially flat have roughly doubled as people started to hit the exalted faction required portions of the Argent Tourament. AH prices are 7-10g per stack. But curious if other servers are seeing or saw a similar bump.

I'm not if this is due to people not farming old content for reps/achs(less runecloth supply) or increased demand )(Argent stuff). Probably both.

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Old 04/23/09, 6:08 AM   #1018
Duckville
Glass Joe
 
Troll Warrior
 
Jubei'Thos
Originally Posted by Limbo View Post
Will the market recover? Probably.
Will it be soon? Probably not.
On this basis I've been looking around the web to try and find some sort of mod that could take AH scan data (auctioneer and so-forth) and then dump it into an excel/OO spreadsheet - obviously to try and help me watch stock data and then perhaps get better timings on when to sell things.

I haven't been able to find anything for this purpose around at all - is there some part of auctioneer that can help me out with this? Or should I put together my own little spreadsheet and do it by hand?

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Old 04/23/09, 6:33 AM   #1019
LittleHamster
Von Kaiser
 
Night Elf Warrior
 
Alonsus (EU)
Other than the difficulty of ulduar, another reason why the enchanting/gem market is not moving is because the gear in non hardmode ulduar is not much of an upgrade compared to BiS t7 gear. As an example, we cleared 8 last week, and 5 this week so far. Looking at our dkp, we have only 19 items awarded. Assuming 3 drops per boss, this is a shard rate of 52%. Some of these are wands, idols, totems, rings that don't need enchants. In comparison, during early naxx, every drop was a large upgrade because you were wearing t6 or dungeon blues. Unless your server is very advanced in progression, with multiple guilds cracking at hardmode, I don't see the market recovering until guilds get further into ulduar.

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Old 04/23/09, 6:36 AM   #1020
sarf
Great Tiger
 
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Fars
Human Paladin
 
No WoW Account (EU)
Originally Posted by Duckville View Post
On this basis I've been looking around the web to try and find some sort of mod that could take AH scan data (auctioneer and so-forth) and then dump it into an excel/OO spreadsheet - obviously to try and help me watch stock data and then perhaps get better timings on when to sell things.

I haven't been able to find anything for this purpose around at all - is there some part of auctioneer that can help me out with this? Or should I put together my own little spreadsheet and do it by hand?
All data of Auctioneer is stored in the SavedVariables directory in WTF/Account/<AccountName>. You should extract the data from there in another program. Using a Lua program inside of WoW to create a spredsheet file seems a bit clunky.

You may need to do some sort of polling on wowhead to get item names, though, as I'd expect Auctioneer to use the item ids rather than names. Or make an ingame plugin that scans the Auctioneer database and puts the names in yet another SavedVariables file.

If you do make a dataset importer, please share it.

Originally Posted by Wraithlin View Post
Do your hospitals have unusually narrow doorways?
If not how do "lifestyle choices" explain the waiting time statistics?

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Old 04/23/09, 9:42 AM   #1021
Moof
Von Kaiser
 
Tauren Druid
 
Chamber of Aspects (EU)
Originally Posted by Duckville View Post
On this basis I've been looking around the web to try and find some sort of mod that could take AH scan data (auctioneer and so-forth) and then dump it into an excel/OO spreadsheet - obviously to try and help me watch stock data and then perhaps get better timings on when to sell things.

I haven't been able to find anything for this purpose around at all - is there some part of auctioneer that can help me out with this? Or should I put together my own little spreadsheet and do it by hand?
I was going to PM it, but in case others might also want to know I'll post it here.

wowecon.com - World of Warcraft Auction House Price Database does what you are after. I'm not entirely sure on their accuracy as it depends on people using their addon to supply information. And of course, the more people doing it the more accurate the data will be.

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Old 04/23/09, 11:35 AM   #1022
iii3
Glass Joe
 
Night Elf Priest
 
Khaz'goroth (EU)
But there is no way to get the data out of wowecon, isn't it?

Having the data in a spreadsheet would enable many possibilities.

Let's say you want to enter a market. For me it is very important to see how big that market is over a period of 1-2 week and if I can dominate this market with my bankroll...

I tried recently many php lua parser snippets on the web, unfortunately all of them failed with the auctioneer lua files.

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Old 04/23/09, 11:31 PM   #1023
Duckville
Glass Joe
 
Troll Warrior
 
Jubei'Thos
Originally Posted by Moof View Post
I was going to PM it, but in case others might also want to know I'll post it here.

wowecon.com - World of Warcraft Auction House Price Database does what you are after. I'm not entirely sure on their accuracy as it depends on people using their addon to supply information. And of course, the more people doing it the more accurate the data will be.
I did have a look at this site, but from what I saw (as mentioned below) it doesn't exactly address what I'm after. As mentioned by iii3 having data avaliable on a spreadsheet which I could play around with and tinker would be a bit more powerful. For simple watching of the market though I suppose that it would be a good suggestion.


Originally Posted by iii3 View Post
But there is no way to get the data out of wowecon, isn't it?

Having the data in a spreadsheet would enable many possibilities.

Let's say you want to enter a market. For me it is very important to see how big that market is over a period of 1-2 week and if I can dominate this market with my bankroll...

I tried recently many php lua parser snippets on the web, unfortunately all of them failed with the auctioneer lua files.
That's pretty much exactly what I'm looking at doing, I'd like to scan the Auction House, watch pricings through various graphs/charts to see how a certain stock is going (for example I'm trying to decide on my server whether to delve into flasks or herbs among other things) - to then make a certain decision on a certain day as to how a stock may flow and give me the best dividends.

I wish I had the skills to setup some sort of data-extraction system to pull the information out of the parses from Auctioneer but unfortunately that's a bit beyond me The spreadsheets however I could certainly handle.

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Old 04/24/09, 12:45 AM   #1024
dawgg
Glass Joe
 
Human Death Knight
 
Ysera
Originally Posted by Duckville View Post
some sort of data-extraction system to pull the information out of the parses from Auctioneer but unfortunately that's a bit beyond me The spreadsheets however I could certainly handle.
AuctioneerDb Win32 app built by norganna. Can export via XML or access via SQL-ish data sources. Early codebase, but workable.

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Old 04/24/09, 4:16 AM   #1025
Nilaus
Von Kaiser
 
Nilaus's Avatar
 
Draenei Hunter
 
Dragonmaw (EU)
I'm not sure if it is allowed to ask these sort of questions, but I'll go ahead and soak the infractions...

What I am looking for is a good tool for scanning the highly commoditized markets of Glyphs, scrolls of enchants and gems.

I want to know what the lowest buyout of a certain type of glyph/enchant is to see if it is worth undercutting it. (Preferably set a threshold of say, so any item with a lowest buyout lower than this is filtered out)

Additionally it would be even more beneficial if it could also list any non-listed items, because these are the real moneymakers (even for common items).

The problem I find is that I don't care if there are 50 auctions listed, all I care about is the buyout of the lowest (when doing mass transactions)

Real men have infractions on their EJ account!

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