Handyhoof

You're in a mostly enclosed economy, and titanium is a limited resource. Supply and Demand will fluctuate that price. The supply I can imagine being similar to most other servers, but the demand will be skewed based on the number of people stockpiling (or speculating) for 3.2 combined with the number using the ore for current crafting projects. When trying to judge this sort of thing (how much?) always consult the current market, and see what's happening on your local AH. This might be a good time to exploit your local goldfarmer and buy out any of his stock, since he will be slower to catch a price jump on a commodity such as this.

 

exog

I asked for a number, not letters. And yea I know prices fluctuate.

 

nevermind

500 gold a stack.

/sarcasm

The price at which you purchase titanium ore is up to you. At the moment, the value of epic gems when 3.2 hits is purely speculative. Blizzard has stated that epic gems will come from various sources, including honor, alchemy transmutes, prospecting of titanium and emblems of heroism.

I'm guessing a value of 200-300g per epic gem (the good ones, at least) 10 days after 3.2 release. Anything earlier than that will be deflated due to everyone unloading at once.

 

koaschten

You have 4 prospects from a stack of titanium. Assuming you get at least 1 epic gem per 4 prospects spending 100g shouldnt be that much if you consider what scarlet rubies were worth at the beginning.

 

Kraith

For the most part.

(200g is the going rate for it right now on my server. It was 40g before 3.2 notes were released.)

 

Talgog

Most stockpiling schemes fail very badly. If you aren't in the titanium trade already, I'd advise against it. You missed it. If you are in the trade, well, "bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered."

The mechanics of titanium and the known means of obtaining epic gems mean that the longer 3.2 is delayed, the lower the demand is going to be. We'll have more of a handle on that once PTR shows how much honor and how many badges. However, most people either have or can get more of both than they can possibly use on anything else. Those that don't will know to stock up, and you can pull 10 badges/day and honor cap pretty easily. At the same time, more titanium is extracted every day.

 

nevermind

You could have said the same for Herbs just before 2.9 (or was it 2.8? whatever patch launched inscription) was released. People had MONTHS upon months to stockpile, yet when the patch hit, ALL herbs were much much higher than anyone had anticipated.

Second, there will be VERY FEW, if not zero, JCs with all epic recipes. Sure, you might have people sitting on 200 stacks of Titanium, but noone to prospect, let alone cut ALL the gems into individual cuts.

Personally I'll be purchasing rarer cuts - I was the first with Flashing on my server and made TONS of cash from it until other JCs decided to catch up. It seems they all decided to pick up Solid/Delicate/Bold/Runed, which turned into a giant mess at the AH with everyone undercutting eachother.

Also remember that you don't ONLY get epic gems from prospecting, I'm sure blue/green gems will drop as well. You heard it here first ladies and gents, Titanium Ore will be worth 200g+ post-patch.

And I'm not quite sure how you can promote bearish/bullish behavior, but nothing in between? This isn't Forex, this is WoW. What you're saying is stockpiling 100 Titanium Ore is OK, but stashing a few away isn't?

 

Mokgral

Has anyone seen the prospect rates for epic gems on the PTR yet?

I haven't been able to get on it yet to do my own testing, or found anyone who has posted this information.

This information will be quite valuable for informed speculation...

 

Prinsesa

Data-mined information indicates that Alchemy will be able to transmute Twilight Opals, Sky Sapphires and Forest Emeralds into epic gems.

It may be worth stocking up on these gems in preparation for dropping them onto Alchemists as the patch hits, although demand will obviously be capped by the number of willing Alchemists and their transmute cooldowns.

(I posted a more detailed breakdown of Alchemy's epic gem iteration at the Profession thread)

"We do want Sanctuary to be the tanking seal"

- Ghostcrawler

 

swills

I posted what I got from prospecting 9 stacks of Titanium Ore over in the Professions thread. I'll leave it to everyone else to draw conclusions on the level at which Titanium Ore is profitable.

 

Ranjurm

I posted a much larger sample size in the same thread and the drop rates for titanium ore are likely as follows:

Epic: 1
Rare: 1
Uncommon: 6
Powder: 3

 

Tanoh

Unless the Titanium Ore prices plummets, which I find hard to believe. The margins to make money as Jewelcrafter for epic gems looks quite slim. Far from the license to print money that Jewelcrafting was before. For good and bad.

I've seen a fair bit of Titanium Ore up for 10g a pop at my server, of course this could still change but let's use it as a baseline.

According to some tests done mainly here in "The WotlK profession thread" we can assume an approximately 0.23 chance per prospect to get an epic gem (0.92/4). Of course, the testing done is on a small sample size so it could change.

This means that on average it will take ~4.3478 prospects (1/(0.92/4)) to get one epic gem. If the price of ore stays at 10g per ore then this means that each epic gem will cost ~217.39 gold to "create" an epic gem.(*) Remember that it's 5 ores per prospect, so it's ~4.34*5*10 gold. This means that on average you have to sell your epic cut gems for at least ~220g to cover your expenses, anything less on average is a waste. If we compare that price for epic gems with that of normal gems which are never above 90g on my server. I'm not sure many will want to pay almost two and a half times the price of a blue gem for a few points in stat.

There are of course min-maxers that will pay unlimited amount of cash for an upgrade, but I'm thinkin of the masses here which are needed to create a market. Also there will be other ways to get gems, including badges. I don't think the vast masses will swap all their blue gems for epic gems on release day, but rather they will swap a few gems here and there as they get closer to BiS.



(*): Of course you get other things in your prospects also, like rare and uncommon gems, and dusts. That will increase the margins, but not a whole lot. It also depends a bit on how successful epic gem conversion is. If everyone runs around in epic gems then the blue gems from your prospect of Titanium Ore will be next to useless, of course then the epic gems should increase in price.

 

Aéquitas

Well don't forget that Epic gems were sold for +/-300g in TBC for quite long. Even after the sunwell island and buyable gems for badges they were still going around 200g.

Next to that you can transmute alot of the gems you get into the colour you want if you got an alchemist handy. (transmutes don't have cooldowns)

On a side note the fact that all JC'ers need a ton of JC tokens to buy all the new desirable cuts it could mean that dragon eyes will rise in price again.

 

• Richelieu

Yup. And they cost 15 badges then too, and when Sunwell came out those badges were about as easy to get as the ones now. And 200g then took more time to collect then than it does now (there's been huge inflation since TBC). I'd be very surprised if raw red epics do not stay above 200g for a long time.

 

Brekk

I'm personally stocking up on titanium not for the profit from prospecting gems, but from the profit of getting a lot of titanium dust to buy a lot of JC tokens for new recipes.

 

Zeuter

I have discovered a major discrepancy in wool cloth pricing between Horde and Alliance. On my server (PvP), it is not uncommon for Horde to have stacks of wool cloth to be priced at more than 15g. Alliance prices can be 10% of that. My theory is that this is caused by the Stockades, an easily available source of wool cloth in the middle of a city, which motivates players to farm their own therefore lowering demand and dropping prices.

If you care to set up a small trading scheme with a friend I can imagine it to be quite profitable. How the pricing affects PvE servers, I do not know.

 

Nemantopia

On Moonguard, the average price of titanium ore and titanium bars on the AH has already gone to roughly equal most of the time. The only people who seem want the bars anymore are making Titansteel, whereas people are already building ore stock for 3.2. I myself and considering building more ore stock simply to cut my costs of gemming up as opposed to directly making gold from it. After all, donating dust to a guild JCer gives the whole guild greater access to cuts, and I can also use rare gem stock to make more epics through a friend and just vendor the uncommons if they seriously plummet. Actually, the fact that even before epic gems were announced it's often been more or as profitable to simply vendor Saronite bars as AH them is kind of sad.

On the other hand, we can only expect the market to mimic the BC epic gem market so far. Yes, I don't expect epic gems to be 'cheap' even by BC standards anytime soon, and considering the ease of earning (average earning per day for dailies alone is higher, for example) the highly desirable gems, especially Red gems, are probably going to stay above 300-500 for a while. The thing is, the source of epic gems is much more expansive than it was when they first hit in BC, or even come BC's max availability. It's not even just starting out with honor and badge buy options, or even that plus the addition of Titanium propsecting. Alchemy will be able to transmute somewhat between colors. Less desirable colors will be able to 'trade up'. I predict that once people really start to understand the implications of rare gems being able to trade up to epic gems (unknown ratio currently, but confirmed?), Saronite's cost will INCREASE as a source of rare gems for this purpose. I don't think it will really skyrocket, but it should go up as people start to experiment with potential profit margins.

Of course, Titanium is essentially 'guranteed' profit, if not always by stellar amounts. 1 epic and 1 rare = goody. Saronite is around or a bit less than 1 rare per stack iirc, but if you can buy four stacks of saronite (or more) for the price of one stack of titanium, and they make the conversion rate 3-4 rares per epic...there's real potential there. I've started saving instead of vendoring my Saronite just to see what happens in 3.2. After all, if it's a bust I can still just vendor it.

This is not the signature you're looking for. You are free to move along.

-Curse you, Raglu!
Generation 28:
The first time you see this, copy it into your signature on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

 

songster

I thought it was a daily quest to turn it in, in which point there's no point getting vast quantities.

Edit: Hmm, misinformed, no limit at present.

 

Xenil

What would be the easiest but at the same time a powerful way of drawing graphs of certain items prices? I am a complete nub in economy stuff but this "buying low, selling high" with using graphs really appeals to me. I think I will monitor the prices for two weeks and see if for example raid foods follow a certain graph and use it to make a bit of gold.

 

Nemantopia

It's an exact science that borders on art, because the 'best method' is often personal preference related to exactly how you plan to use it and how you prefer data to be presented. I would advise working with Excel to store data you get yourself or through reliable data sources. You can then compare averages over time, daily averages, weekly averages, track behavior across a day or a week, or anything you want. There are plenty of tutorials out there, but Excel works pretty well with just basic line and bar graphs. If you want to get really complicated you can even do a '3d' representation of price across a group of items and compare the values of each to try and predict what the most profitable farm/resale will be, but that takes practice and a certain brain-boggling. I'd suggest sticking to: put data in Excel, graph data with line or bar graph, and then using Excel to compare % profit, profit per sale, and fluctuation.

This is not the signature you're looking for. You are free to move along.

-Curse you, Raglu!
Generation 28:
The first time you see this, copy it into your signature on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

 

Brekk

Market Watcher - Addons - Curse

Been using that mod for about 2 months, alongside my auctioneer suite. The only thing I haven't researched yet is a way to dump data from auctioneer or market watcher into an Excel spreadsheet. I would like to do some further calculations on the numbers, including graphs that ignore outliers, etc.

 

azrale

How exactly does the Market Watcher work with auctioneer, is it a built in feature?

 

mjulven

One of my alts is an alchemist with the exilir mastery and I'm selling roughly 40-200 flasks day depening on the ammount of cheap herbs on auction house, this generates quite alot of money for me. With the upcomming 3.2 patch however I've stocked up cheap [Forest Emerald] to fill my personal need for epic gems by doing the process 9 [Forest Emerald] ->3 Eye of Zul -> 1 Cardinal Ruby and I got my needs covered. However I'm not sure how many stacks of forest emeralds I need (if sell every cardinal ruby I get out of it) for it to be worth switching into tramsmutation mastery, transmute and then switch back to elixir?

This is what I've come up with so far, assumptions:

• Master changes costs 300g
• A hint to the cardinal ruby price would be the [Scarlet Ruby], at my server it's about 65-70g, I expect the price for epic gems to be 50% higher due higher priced titanium ore, higher honor cost and more emblems needed (was 15 in tbc).
• I buy all [Forest Emerald] under 10g that I can get my hands on, in the model for simplicity they ALL cost 10g.
• Proccrates for a 2 procc is about 15% with higher proccs neglible for transmutation master, the procc can of course apply on both transmutations. Meaning that the for every 9[Forest Emerald] I get 1.15*1.15 = 1.32 epic red gems.

These assumptions without transmutation mastery would give me atleast 10g profit per 9 [Forest Emerald]. With transmutation mastery I would create 32% more gems, meaning that I'll make an average profit of atleast 13.2g per 9[Forest Emerald]. Meaning that i will make 3.2g more with the mastery in average per craft. Meaning that it will break even after 300/3.2 * 9 = 844 gems ~ 42 stacks to brake even. With that many stacks needed the proccrate of the transmutation should be as expected.

The problem is that this model does not take the insane first days into account and I also assumes that every [Forest Emerald] costs 10g, how will the prices fluctate? A higher profit per gem will generate less stacks needed to brake even, heck will I even make my money back from buying [Forest Emerald] from ah. Will the markets get flooded? If there's 1000 cardinal rubies gems up I'm likely to get into a undercutting war, meaning that I'm likely to sell less or get into an undercutting war.

 

savernon

I recently started a horde on a PvE server, and quickly noticed that discrepancy too, when I went to go buy some wool cloth for the cloth turnins. I would imagine that stocks is purely the reason why it is so lopsided. There isn't a quickly accessible place to farm wool for horde, and 15g is not that much now, but it still stings when you realize you are buying a stack of wool for that much.

 

Darian_TruBlade

It's very difficult to compare the introduction of epic gems in 3.2 to their introduction in BC, or even their subsequent increase in availability which came in 2.4. There are various factors on both ends which make the situations strikingly different.

To summarize, in 2.4 the primary demand on epic gems came from the greater whole of the player base, as the T6+ raiders already had their own stockpiles from raiding. The reverse will be true in 3.2, as there really aren't that many sockets on Naxx gear or normal mode drops compared to the epics available in BC. At the same time, most of the cutting edge raiders will be stockpiling Emblems of Conquest, and because the new raid is gated won't have much new gear requiring gemming until a few weeks in.

I'd expect the typical initial spike in prices accompanied by the obvious cliffdive, but thereafter followed by a marked, steady rise as players from all stages of the game upgrade their gear. It won't be until the general playerbase has had their fill of conquest/valor gear that prices will begin to drop again.

"A man's IQ, yearly income, sexual prowess, ingenuity, physical appearance and generally every other aspect of his character can be condensed down to four digits: his Arena rating." - Zechsy [70 Rogue - Skullcrusher (EU) - 10/23/2007]