Some announced 3.3.3 changes with economic ramifications:
* Runed Orbs: Recipes which require this item have had their material requirements significantly reduced
Inscription
* Most recipes that required 2 inks now only require 1.
Mining
* Titansteel Bar: Creating this item no longer results in a cooldown.
Tailoring
* Glacial Bag: Creating this item now invokes a 7-day cooldown.
* The cooldown and location requirements have been removed from creating Moonshroud, Spellweave and Ebonweave.
Interesting shift on cooldowns; it's gone from the crafted cloth, but added to the Glacial Bag, to keep that from being crafted in mass quantities.
Unless they introduce limited supply, that is 1 frozen orb = 1 frost lotus or 1 Eternal fire. Frozen orbs have already jumped from ~6g to over 17g on my server, and I expect it to keep rising.
Unless they introduce limited supply, that is 1 frozen orb = 1 frost lotus or 1 Eternal fire. Frozen orbs have already jumped from ~6g to over 17g on my server, and I expect it to keep rising.
And frost lotus to keep cratering. It's not like these price moves will be all on one commodity.
I also expect another consequence: with lotuses purchasable for frost orbs, and therefore losing much of their value, people will probably farm them less, meaning that other plants used for flasks will probably go up in prices. I'd start stocking up on Lichbloom/Icethorn/Goldclover now.
Edit: I wonder if eternal lives will go up too. If people farm less plants there will be much less available, and I can hardly see someone buying an eternal life with a frost orb if they've already spent them on lotuses. Maybe, maybe not, could be interesting to see.
Logically, the price of anything that can be bought with a Frozen Orb should gradually become equal to the price of that Orb. Nobody's going to be able to sell Eternals for more than the cost of a Frozen Orb, and Orbs cannot be sold for more than the price of the most expensive Eternal on the AH. The only question is what the value of an Orb will be for each server, which isn't worth discussing as it's different for everyone.
(On a side note, I'd recommend telling any random groups you join that everyone should roll Need on the Orbs to prevent ninjaing.)
Does anyone else think that the price of rare gems will go up now? I've already stopped using frozen orbs to make icy prisms. I'm thinking the price of dark jade, shadow crystal and chalcedonies will probably come down some as well.
Does anyone else think that the price of rare gems will go up now? I've already stopped using frozen orbs to make icy prisms. I'm thinking the price of dark jade, shadow crystal and chalcedonies will probably come down some as well.
I think the demand for these gems is probably so low these days that any change would be hardly noticeable. I can't remember the last time I used a rare quality gem as anything but a placeholder in a raid until I bought an epic afterward.
Well, I still use rare gems for alchemy transmutes, but then again, that's one per day, and anyone with a mining alt will have enough that there will be no need to actually buy any, so I expect their prices to be close to zero.
I think the demand for these gems is probably so low these days that any change would be hardly noticeable. I can't remember the last time I used a rare quality gem as anything but a placeholder in a raid until I bought an epic afterward.
Actually there is still substantial demand for rare gems, especially on weekends. For many many people they are the gem of choice for alts. I still make decent money from prospecting a moderate amount of saronite each day (8-10 stacks). I cut and sell the rares for ~20g, cut and vendor the commons (keeping any Perfect reds which sell well for 8-10 gold) and make a regular 50-75% profit margin, about 100g a day profit for 5 minutes work.
Perhaps my server is just weird on the blue gems then. I have found that when I do cut them, which admittedly is rare these days, they don't sell quickly and they definitely don't sell for much (10-15g average). If it's working for you, great. I just don't find a 5g profit per gem to really be worth my time when epics are 30-100g profit per gem.
I was thinking about the impact of Frozen Orbs on the prices of Frost Lotuses in 3.3.3. when it struck me that Frozen Orbs were actually a rather rare commodity.
Let's consider an optimal situation: you're a well-geared tank, meaning you have virtually no waiting time in between instances and can be sure there will be no time-wasting deaths in the group. Let's count 3 instances per hour.
Considering you get one orb per hour and that there are four other people competing with you, that's an average 0.6 orbs per hour, with no other way of getting them (I'm assuming you don't trade emblems for orbs, since you could trade them for ametrines/eyes of zul/dreadstones, which are worth a lot more). The only reason we all have a crapload of orbs in our banks is because for the longest time, they were simply useless.
Now, when 3.3.3. hits, people will quite likely trade most - if not all - of their orbs for frost lotuses very quickly, which will lead (lotus) prices to crater. However, the lotus supply will quite likely be rather low, because a) people are selling their stocks NOW, anticipating the patch's effect, b) people will quite likely farm less lotuses because of the lower prices and c) guilds with low stocks are also waiting for the patch to resupply at a low cost.
So, in, short, I wouldn't be surprised at all if lotus prices brutally went up say, about a week or 10 days into 3.3.3., which sounds to me like a reasonnable amount of time to exhaust the orb supplies people had and the lotus stocks left.
Now for the fun part: could it be reasonnable to try and precipitate this? The simplest way I can think of would be quite simply buying as many as you can when the prices hit rock bottom, and then resell them immediately once the AH is cleaned out.
Naturally, prices will eventually settle back to something reasonnable - people will realize lotus farming is still profitable, the usual undercutters will appear, etc. - but in the meanwhile, there might be a way of making a couple thousand very easy gold. Any thoughts?
Naturally, prices will eventually settle back to something reasonnable - people will realize lotus farming is still profitable, the usual undercutters will appear, etc. - but in the meanwhile, there might be a way of making a couple thousand very easy gold. Any thoughts?
I wouldn't expect the prices of Frost Lotus to rise substantially after the crash. The casuals who raid maybe six hours a week will be able to get all the Lotuses they need just from doing daily randoms - or will just buy flasks that will also cost less - while the hardcore players are drowning in Emblems.
I think you're overestimating the number of flasks casuals can make off daily randoms: that's one chance in 5 to get an orb every day, or approximately one per week. 6 hours of raiding means 6 flasks (unless they're alch), or 3 lotuses. So they will have to buy them.
As for hardcore players, like I said: why buy an orb with your emblems when you can buy an epic gem that will probably sell for more? I'm quite sure prices will eventually stabilize, but I expect a short period of potentially profitable chaos.
I'm quite sure prices will eventually stabilize, but I expect a short period of potentially profitable chaos.
The drop rate of frost lotus is also going up 50% baseline. This alone will push the prices down dramatically, and given that there will be masses of lotuses produced from the stockpiles of frost orbs as well as new frost orb production I would expect lotuses to be way down and stay there.
I think you're overestimating the number of flasks casuals can make off daily randoms: that's one chance in 5 to get an orb every day, or approximately one per week. 6 hours of raiding means 6 flasks (unless they're alch), or 3 lotuses. So they will have to buy them.
I would expect casuals to convert Emblems into Orbs more often than the hardcore. Hardcore players may go so far as to bring along gems and enchanting mats so they can use their upgrade right away if it drops, but casuals are more likely to go "Cool, an upgrade - now I need to get gems for it!" and start saving after the fact.
I'd also be surprised if the epic gem market didn't crash as well. A well-geared squad can easily do three or even four heroics in an hour (CoS roleplay being skippable in 3.3.3), earning themselves an epic gem and minimum 50g each plus some enchanting mats. It's a very, very good way to make money if you can find four other people who want to.
Does anyone else think that the price of rare gems will go up now? I've already stopped using frozen orbs to make icy prisms. I'm thinking the price of dark jade, shadow crystal and chalcedonies will probably come down some as well.
Even when people were using icy prisms often, the price of shadow crystals never really took off in my server. They were around 1-2g while chalcedony and dark jade were going over 10g per sometimes. I could understand why chalcedony were more expensive but could never figure out why dark jade was that expensive.
I don't really think there will be much chaos after the 3.3.3 patch. The prices of frost lotus have gone from 70-80g or so on my server to roughly 40-50g when I last checked. That's almost just equivalent to what one could expect from the soon to be 50% increase in drop rate. Frozen orbs have increased from 5-8g to 25-30g as people start stockpiling on these. The price could rise once people start exchanging frozen orbs for other stuff in 3.3.3 and supply goes down. However, people would just stop exchanging them for frost lotuses if the price gets higher than that of the lotus.
Even when people were using icy prisms often, the price of shadow crystals never really took off in my server. They were around 1-2g while chalcedony and dark jade were going over 10g per sometimes. I could understand why chalcedony were more expensive but could never figure out why dark jade was that expensive.
Dark Jade is also used for xmuting Earthsiege Diamonds.
What I've been doing lately is I've been watching the orb prices and deduced a median price that presumably lotus' bought with orbs would be sold for. On my server orbs are averaging around 17g(varies server to server), so I'm banking that after the crash of the market, the lotus price will settle back around 15-20g. Although, at first the prices are going to be crazy low since alot of people bought alot of orbs for 5-6g so they will be able to sell at a lower price and still make a profit.
I'm also expecting eternal life to rise a bit since there will be a little less herbing overall, and since the CD is coming off titansteel I expect alot of it to be made thus bringing a rise in price of fires/shadows.
I don't really see why fire and shadow eternals would be affected by a drop in herbing, as - unless I am terribly mistaken - herbing only yields life.
Even if fire and shadow eternals go up in price, they will never go over the price of a Frozen Orb, as you would have to be completely daft to pay 50g (random price pulled out of my hat) for a fire when Orbs go for 30g (same thing), as you can trade the orb for the fire at the NPC.
So basically, eternals should quickly converge towards the price of orbs, unless there is a crazy shortage of orbs and a crazy demand for eternals, neither of which - much less both - I can see happening at a large scale. I sort of expect the orbs to end up in short supply soon enough as there is no real way to make alot of them fast, so as soon as our hoarded supplies are sold prices will steadily rise, but nothing stellar I should say.
Tailors need to watch out too, with the location and CD removed from moonshroud, ebonweave and spellweave expect the going price to drop to around 20-30g, and the price of Glacial Bag to skyrocket now that it will have a 7 day CD. On top of that I dont expect it will be that easy to sell Glaciral Bags either, with all the 20-22 slot bags available from raids, and the cheap cost of Frostweave bags I don't think we'll find Glacials selling too often.
Good healers keep people alive that are taking damage.
Resto druids heal them before they take damage and do the other healers job for them.
I don't really see why fire and shadow eternals would be affected by a drop in herbing, as - unless I am terribly mistaken - herbing only yields life.
Not related to herbing, but to probable increase in demand due to removal of titansteel CD. But as you mentionned, it's all gonna be leashed by Frozen Orbs prices, it's unlikely that theses skyrocket (once past the initial post patch dump for profit).
On the subject of gold making, and I'm uncertain whether something like this interests you guys or not, but I'm writing a spreadsheet that exports data from your realm's AH. It then compares averages costs of making items with the average values of selling crafted products.
This could help determine potential markets on your realm you had previously not thought about or perhaps compare realms if you're considering transferring. Running a professions powerleveling mats shopping list through it is another idea, as per Find out Cost of Power Leveling Professions : WoW Confidential
Attached below is an example of what the alchemy page would look like from AH generated data, but a page for every profession is under development. I plan to make this publicly available for free once I've got all the knots out.
- Tauren Druid (Realm first Naxx/Malygos)
- Gnome Mage (Realm first Sarth +3d)
- Nelf Druid (new main - progressing through Ulduar)
02/09/10, 8:58 PM
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