Mimiron Hard 25 Paladin with Val'Anyr, WoL:
World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis
Zoning in on P2, which ensures most shields are used due to the pervasive fire nova:
World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis
* Protection of Ancient Kings: 92259
Rough P2 split using WWS:
Wow Web Stats
First Val'anyr proc WWS split:
Wow Web Stats - 125330 total healing output
Second Val'anyr proc WWS split:
Wow Web Stats - 205524 total healing output
The theoretical absorb value should then be: (.15)(125330) + (.15)(205524) = 49627, half of the reported WoL absorb value
Digging a little deeper, let's see who used the shields:
WoL:
World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis
* Protection of Ancient Kings on myself (I beacon myself in P2 as a point of context): 12474
* Protection of Ancient Kings on Duoctane: 936
Using the Val'anyr WWS splits above:
* Total healing on myself respectively: 23,086 + 34,884 = 57970, or an expected potential 8695 absorbs
* Total healing on Duoctane respectively: 0 + 4084 = 4084 or an expected 613 potential absorbs
There's a lot more digging to be done here (e.g, rather than cross-referencing against WWS, split to the Val'anyr procs in WoL directly to see what its reported values are). Assuming WWS is accurate in its total healing, it appears that either WoL inflates the absorb value or the 15% in the tooltip is incorrect (very likely that WoL is inflating due to the testing nature of the absorb parser). It would be one thing if WoL was reporting a lesser absorb value than that which would be possible, but the fact that its values exceed the theoretical maximum either points to a problem.
I'm using mostly an empirical look; if anyone wants to do a mathematical approach, by all means. My next step is likely to set up some type of test to validate the 15% number listed in the tooltip just to get that unknown off the table.