I want to pick up on what someone else has said here about missing with +9% hit.

A hunter with +9% hit missed a tranq shot on Chromaggus which suggests that Chrom has more defence than the average lvl 63 mob. If the miss rate of 8.6% is accurate then how much defence above 315 would be required to outdo the 0.4% hit the hunter had 'spare'?

1% chance to miss is still hardcoded into every mob/spell. This is likely what caused that miss on chromaggus.

If it was a miss, not a fail (which is basically a resist) - tranq can do both - 317 defense would make needed hit 9.08%

If there was a 1% chance to miss using every ability, parsing would have shown this, I think. There are *extremely* large samples available with 9% hit, with nowhere near 1% miss rate. Again, melee, ranged and spell mechanics aren't 100% identical.

Thanks for that feedback Lactose. Sorry I was stupid enough to have to ask about the simple maths to do with defense!

Looking through logs, I saw that it was a fail. Interestingly, it seems like the failed tranq did have an effect because 3 seconds after the failed message frenzy faded from Chrom without any additional tranqs after the failed one.

A guild mate and I were talking about this tonight, and it seems there's no contest (based on this thread) that DWing was better than a 2h end game. Plugging in some numbers, I'm not sure if I'm entirely convinced that its true... Also, I'm not entirely convinced my math is true... so I tried to write it out here for someone to look over.

Assuming you're weapons are enchanted with 25 agi / 2x15 agi, and 1 crit = 52.88 agi...

Eye of Nerub: 70 Agi + .16 crit = 140 AP + 1.48% crit.
HotS + SC: 66 AP + 30 Agi + 2% crit = 126 AP + 2.57% crit.

so 1.09% crit or 14 AP. The combo definately has the advantage here.

Adding in lightning reflexes.

Eye of Nerub: 70 x 1.15 Agi + .16 crit = 161 AP + 1.68% crit. (80.5 agi)
HotS + SC: 66 AP + 30 x 1.15 Agi + 2% crit = 135 AP + 2.65% crit. (34.5 agi)

Now it becomes 26 AP or .97% crit.

Adding in Blessing of Kings (which 1/2 of us have now, and soon everyone will).
note: i'm not sure if BoK is additive or multiplicative with LR, additive gives 1.25% bonus per agi, multiplicative gives 1.265% unless the formula isn't as easy as I imagine it... so I went with additive.

Eye of Nerub: 87.5 Agi + .16 crit = 175 AP + 1.81 crit.
HotS + SC: 66 AP + 37.5 Agi + 2 crit = 141 AP + 2.71 crit.

Now it's 34 AP v .9% crit.

Using the Hunter Spreadsheet Lactose made, with my hunter's severly gimped gear (and TS build) 1% crit was worth about 11.5 agi, at which point it seems the extra AP is quite a bit more valuable than the .9 crit, and the polearm wins. Then I (i really hope you don't care but...) Gonktarget's CTProfile (http://ctprofiles.net/2019) and build into the spreadsheet and it came out to roughly 1 crit is worth 10 agi. I'm guessing it ranges between 9 to 13 based on your gear.

At this point, it seems to be that Eye of Nerub definately has the potential to out range dps a DW combo, and if the combo consists of FotF instead of HotS then the difference becomes even larger. Is my math off somewhere or is the difference between DW and the polearm really not as clear-cut as everyone seems to be making it out to be?

Frenzy has a fixed duration (5 seconds I think?). If nobody bothers to tranq the frenzied boss/mob, the frenzy effect will eventually fade on its own.

At the moment I have 7% hit; I've had up to 8% with regular raiding gear. I've always had a regular miss rate vs bosses when actually parsing my combat logs as opposed to thinking back and guessing my miss rate.
I miss more than I notice, I think most hunters do.
If parsing a whole instane clear, a huge part of shots are not against a level 63 mob, skewing the numbers slightly for rough parses related to hit / miss.

I kind of figured that would be the case.

I've been at 9% for a while now and never regretted it. Since going from 6% to 9% hit (swapping scope for biznick's) has lead to a noticably positive increase in dps. I haven't parsed 6% logs to 9%, but my position relative to other hunters and overall on dps has increased significantly. Best as I can tell, on fights like Twin Emps where all I do is spam autoshot and aimed shot, getting 8/9% is invaluable in reducing misses to near zero. Last twin emps I got 0 misses, where I'm used to seeing 2-4 misses per attempt. Nothing worse than a missed aimed shot.

This is *only* true for spells. Now, it may be true for tranq, or even for shots, but it is most definitely not true for rogue instant attacks (and I believe parsing has shown it to be untrue for shots and warrior instants).

There is still a small miss chance even at 9% hit for Hunters. I missed an Aimed shot on Skeram on Wednesday, and I missed a level 58 mob grinding some cash last week. It isn't anywhere close to 1% - those are the only two misses I've noticed in months - but it's there.

Does anyone have data regarding miss rate for a level 60 hunter with no +skill versus level 62 mobs?

The OP posted good numbers for lvl 63 mobs which seems consistent with conventional theory, but I have always suspected that miss rate does not scale linearly with level difference, which is why weapon skill should shine against +3 level targets, as you get much more benefit per skill point.

Spell hit is a good example of this, as the difference in resist rate between a +2 and +3 level difference is significantly more than the difference between +1 and +2 (for 0, +1, +2, +3 level difference, spell miss % goes something like 4, 5, 6, 17).

Such a thing may also hold true for crit rate against higher level targets. Your crit rate may not decrease in a linear fashion, making +skill that much more important against the highest level targets. The nonlinearity of +skill benefits has seemed like a pretty obvious possible mechanism to me, but I haven't seen any hard data supporting or rebutting it, so I'm hoping someone out there can point me to a study that I've missed.

i'm actually curious what the impact of the +skill changes in TBC will be for ranged weapons.

Im just not so sure about this 1% miss rate. I will agree that there is a "small" possibly 1% fail or resist rate for tranq shot, and i have experienced this. I have literally parsed thousands of shots, and never seen a miss on shots at 9%, unless i was fighting mobs which used abilities that reduced my hit rate. This would include but not be limited to Kurinaxx, Banshees in EPL, etc.
Also, this may include mind controlled players, such as warriors, with really high defense. I know i have missed MC'ed warriors on sekram/hakkar. Sekram specifically, where multishots could hit players who are mind controlled, druids who could cast insect swarm, etc.

And on a level 58 mob? I cant belive that a miss would occur at 9% there unless you were debuffed. Melee specials are capped as well, i dont belive that they have a miss rate over a certain percentage either. Spells do have a small fail rate, that i know about.

that definitely is not true. with +8% hit and a 2hander, i still have misses againt bosses. I always figured that it was an added 1.2% to miss for each level a mob is above you(for melee and ranged).

I've noticed the same, but the main point in the post is still the same. It's not a pure +1.2% miss rate, it can be negated with +skill, making the stat (much) more useful than most people seem to think, based on the melee counterpart.