Comeplete summary of +hit caps - Page 5

Emeraude · 09/22/06, 7:49 AM

Originally Posted by Zurai

Originally Posted by Cluey

You have presented only anacdotal evidence that it happened, got a screenshot for us?

No, I don't have a screenshot. Even if I did, you could just say I didn't have 9% hit.

You can either choose to believe me, or choose to call me a liar.

People are coming in here and saying 1 miss out of 6500 is some sort of statistical anomaly without even trying to think things through because it upsets their worldview somehow. The explanation is simple and elegant: there is always, at all points, a miss chance equal to one single solitary entry on the to-hit table. It's WoW's equavalent of rolling a 1 in combat in D&D - a gauranteed miss no matter the comparative skill level. If WoW's hit table is 10,000 entries, 1 entry being reserved for a mmiss explains a 1:6500 miss:hit ratio perfectly. It's an uncommon enough event not to alter any balance anywhere, but it's a chance for them to provide a "one in a million" type of occurance (think shooting a torpedo into a 2' diameter space station exhaust port).

I don't see why people are so convinced this doesn't happen. Multiple people have provided screenshots and firsthand accounts in this thread, and still people refuse to believe.

Ummm he explained he was at 6500 and counting until he put on +8% hit from 9. =o

In addition lots of people post alot of BS to try to justify their claim.

"I got crushed with shield block up!" When the person had their back to the mob. >_> I mean really.

If you wanna challenge the actual norm of what's proven and what isn't then you have to actually prove it, a baseless claim with nothing to back it up is just that, a baseless claim.

burghy · 09/22/06, 7:54 AM

Third miss was in the next try (12 minutes later). The combat log has about 3 days of Loatheb tries. Those were the only misses. I suspect he used conq instead of lh in those tries. Another warrior with +11 hit had 0 misses.

Emeraude · 09/22/06, 8:00 AM

Originally Posted by burghy

Third miss was in the next try (12 minutes later). The combat log has about 3 days of Loatheb tries. Those were the only misses. I suspect he used conq instead of lh in those tries. Another warrior with +11 hit had 0 misses.

Ahhh minutes appart, now that's interesting.

So with 11 hit a Warrior did not miss in 3 days of Loatheb tries.
But with +9 another Warrior did?

I assume both are DW, and are you sure that this Warrior was definately in +9? Or is this an assumption, missing like that minutes appart seems about right for +8, so are you 100% sure it was 9% or is that just an assumption(I see you only assumed he only took off Lionheart).

Zurai · 09/22/06, 8:01 AM

Originally Posted by Emeraude

If you wanna challenge the actual norm of what's proven and what isn't then you have to actually prove it, a baseless claim with nothing to back it up is just that, a baseless claim.

Except that I'm not challenging the norm. It's pretty widely accepted in my experience that there is always a slight chance to miss. I'm not the only person on this thread offering proof and experiences.

Again, I don't know why a 0.01% gauranteed miss upsets peoples' worldviews so much that they turn on their blinders.

Emeraude · 09/22/06, 8:07 AM

Originally Posted by Zurai

Originally Posted by Emeraude

If you wanna challenge the actual norm of what's proven and what isn't then you have to actually prove it, a baseless claim with nothing to back it up is just that, a baseless claim.

Except that I'm not challenging the norm. It's pretty widely accepted in my experience that there is always a slight chance to miss. I'm not the only person on this thread offering proof and experiences.

Again, I don't know why a 0.01% gauranteed miss upsets peoples' worldviews so much that they turn on their blinders.

If it was widely accepted it wouldn't be brought up regularly. :)

The question "why" still exists. Mechanics can be different from class to class depending on your combat of choice.

DW/2-Hand/Weapon-Shield/Ranged, it's very possible that somethings could be different in the basic mechanics to balance things out.

You can't say things have a .01% chance to miss if you see miss more then .01% chance of the time, you can't say there's a cap on a miss chance if the miss chance doesn't apply to all levels of combat.

Finding out in fact why misses are happening are very important things.

burghy · 09/22/06, 8:57 AM

1 warrior didn't miss at all. 11% hit.
Shinja missed only those 3 times in the same amount of tries. The gear he usually changes: helm(from lh to conq), trinkets (doesn't have any trinket that affects hit).

Another warrior with +7 (or +8, not 100% sure I'll ask when he comes online) hit: 28 misses.

I'll make screenshots with superinspect when we go to kill him next time.

Grock · 09/22/06, 9:49 AM

Originally Posted by Zurai

People are coming in here and saying 1 miss out of 6500 is some sort of statistical anomaly without even trying to think things through because it upsets their worldview somehow.

The 1 miss out of 6500 swings was when I was wearing speed boots on Heigan and I was at +8 tohit, I remember it specifically.

I'll try to take SS's of every stretch where I'm wearing +9 tohit, I am almost positive that I have never missed with +9 tohit and a 2 hander.

HordakIC · 09/22/06, 10:24 AM

Originally Posted by Kalman

Originally Posted by HordakIC

What I've found through lots of observation and some testing is that +hit dimishes exponentially. My testing using recap (I don't know what version you guys are using, but mine ONLY records misses as misses) has reinforced the idea that white attacks only get 90% effectiveness out of each +hit, and yellow get the full effect. This means that for white attacks your actual +hit is:

SUM(i|1:n) 0.9^i

Just give that a try using different amounts of hit gear and different weapon set ups. That's what I did and it held true up through 12% to hit.

It's totally incorrect. It estimates 7.15% benefit for 15% +hit, when I know 15% +hit gives me 15% +hit. From testing.

There is no hard cap. There is no "you must miss". People putting those ideas forward are, quite simply, misguided.

Hunter that missed at 9%: what fight was it on? Are you certain you hadn't removed a piece of +hit in order to wear, e.g, resist gear?

/shrug, believe what you want. I've seen hunters with 9 and 10% to hit miss on auto-shots. I miss about 1/5000 hamstrings with 10%+ to hit. The 90% effectiveness thing is just something that I've tested and seen through observation and they match up. I've varied my +hit and seen less and less effect as I add more and more hit. Again, believe what you want.

EDIT: oh, and the poster above me says that he doesn't believe he's ever missed with +9 to hit, which comes out to 5.5 to hit by my calculations. If he's a human with a sword that'd give him another .2% pushing him over the 5.6% mark...ie never miss.

HordakIC · 09/22/06, 12:45 PM

That's really impressive and defies everything I've seen (or heard of from our rogues). I'll be interested in what happens with 25 to hit.

Also, was that with 1 weapon or dual wield? My assumption is dual wield, but no harm in being explicit.

• frmorrison · 09/22/06, 3:10 PM

Originally Posted by HordakIC

That's really impressive and defies everything I've seen (or heard of from our rogues). I'll be interested in what happens with 25 to hit.

Dual Wielding (which all level 10+ Rogues do), should have a 24.6% missrate on 63s, that is nothing new.

The poster was attacking 60s too from his parse, so that is why his missrate wasn't 0.6% (it should have been if he was only recording boss fights).

That picture doesn't confirm or disspell the idea that specials have a higher missrate than white attacks, but it does sort of confirm that white attacks with DW have more than a 24% missrate when attacking 63s.

HordakIC · 09/22/06, 4:08 PM

What I'm saying is that his 24% hit actually translated into 24% less miss. Myself and all of the rogues with whom I've spoken have noticed pretty large diminishing returns on +hit (see my first post in the thread on what has worked to successfully model and predict based on experience).

Kalman · 09/22/06, 7:48 PM

Originally Posted by HordakIC

What I'm saying is that his 24% hit actually translated into 24% less miss. Myself and all of the rogues with whom I've spoken have noticed pretty large diminishing returns on +hit (see my first post in the thread on what has worked to successfully model and predict based on experience).

Except it doesn't successfully model for most of us. I suspect you're using a mod with flawed miss tracking (e.g. Recap) to determine miss rates and are having dodge lumped in; that's why people usually get bad numbers.

Speaking for myself, using CombatStats (and now KombatStats) to track miss/dodge/parry, my autoattack miss rate has never deviated from the 24% - +hit number by more than a percent over significant numbers of attacks. Most rogues with accurate tracking methods will verify the conclusion that autoattacks do *not* have diminishing returns on +hit.

Before accusing the dominant paradigm of being wrong, check your methods.

GrizleyCQ · 09/23/06, 6:17 AM

Tracking with combat stats I have found that 24% miss rate is fairly accurate.

I also let it run uncleared over a couple long farming sessions and raids and hit over 160,000 sinister strikes in a row. That was with +18 hit and 310 skill at the time. I think that is a large enough sample size to say that with enough hit gear it is possible to get a 100% hit rate, at least for special attacks.

Currently I am running +20-21(?) to hit, and I still miss white attacks, but as expected its a fairly rare thing, I would be interested in picking up some more hit and seeing if I can elimiate all misses.

Azgrim · 09/23/06, 10:23 PM

I know that for ranged +9% to hit gives you a 0% chance to miss. I ran combat stats for many weeks of raiding with +9% and never missed. I think the actual miss rate is something like 8.6% vs. a level 63 so +8% to hit is probably good enough.

Zerianne · 09/24/06, 2:37 AM

My stats for a full clear of BWL tonight yielded a 9.39% missrate, and I have 16% tohit. I sport 305 daggers on trash and 310 on bosses.. I chalk the 1% +/- to wearing crappy resist gear on at least 2 fights.

I don't think I've ever missed with a special, honestly. I had precision+devilsaur right from level 60. People confuse dodges with misses I think, and Recap's fubar implementation really helps confuse the issue. Second, people mix around resist gear in a lot of fights. What do you do, reset your data? Then you have a small and unreliable sample size. But if you don't reset it, it's corrupt due to fighting different types of mobs with different gear.

I see no reason so far to believe anything other than 1% +hit removing 1% miss. I'd be interested in statistics from the person who has 25% +hit though, perhaps a large sample size from the same mobtype.

Quigon · 09/24/06, 1:12 PM

So the summary is 8.3 or 8.6% to hit with 2h'ers and your MH...
And so 9% to hit should cover hunters and warrior tanks/2h'ers but not dual wielders.

Also, when you're looking at your % to hit... Make sure to include weapon skill!!

burghy · 09/24/06, 7:00 PM

Tested again on Loatheb (with inspect screenshots before the fight), misses with +7(1 war) and +8(1 war), no miss with +9(2 wars). All dual wielding, no +skill modifiers. So prolly is the same as with hunters.

Deathwing · 09/24/06, 7:36 PM

For what it's worth, I was tanking one of Sulfuron's adds, so I had a Wrath helm on, and I hadn't got a pugio or drape yet. That puts me at exactly 8% hit for the rest of the fight. I remember missing a bloodthirst. I don't know whether to chalk that up to "you can never totally get rid of misses" or "level difference adds to miss like hunters". If we do MC on Monday, I'll do the all the bosses with +8 hit, post the results here. Recap ok for this, or should I use a different parser?

Jaz · 09/24/06, 7:54 PM

Recap counts parries/dodges as misses, use Combat/Kombat Stats.

Nite_Moogle · 09/24/06, 9:40 PM

Missed an Overpower on Golemagg about 10 seconds ago with 7% to hit.

Azgrim · 09/25/06, 12:14 AM

Interesting note, Dragonstalker 8/8 can "Miss"