With the addition of the Cryptstalker bonus of 50 mana per crit, the question was brought up if a lightning reflexes 0/21/30, with its higher crit rate, might surpass a marksman 5/31/15, 2/31/18, 0/31/20 build. This puzzled me for a while and tried some theorycrafting to come up with an answer (credit to Zeboim for mana efficiency math!).

First, how much mana is regained by the bonus? Assuming 3 auto shots + aimed and multi gives 5 shots fired per 10 second rotation.

5 Attacks per 10 seconds
20% crit rate
1 Proc per rotation
50 mana regained per 10 seconds

Lets increase the crit rate to 25%

5 Attacks per 10 seconds
25% crit rate
1.25 Procs per rotation
62.5 mana regained per 10 seconds

The calculation I ended up with is:

Mana regen per 10 seconds = ((# of attacks made per 10 seconds)*Crit Rate%)*50

The two variables being your crit rate and your weapon speed, increasing either helps with the extra mana regen.

Note: For the initial purposes of this thread, I’m not going to factor in the effect of the mana reduction cost of Aimed/Multishot with full Cryptstalker, I will factor it in at the end of this post.

Gear considered
Crypstalker Headpiece (Falcons Call)
Prestors Talisman of Connivery
Cryptstalker Shoulders (Might of the Scourge)
Shroud of Dominion (Lesser Agility)
Cryptstalker Tunic (Greater Stats)
Cryptstalker Wristguards (Mana Regeneration)
Cryptstalker Handguards (Superior Agility)
Cryptstalker Girdle
Cryptstalker Legguards (Falcons Call)
Cryptstalker Boots (Greater Agility)
Exalted Brood of Nozdormu Ring
Ring of the Cryptstalker
Fang of the Faceless (Agility)
Kingsfall (Agility)
Blackhands Breadth
Drake Fang Talisman
Ashjre'thul, Crossbow of Smiting (+7 Sniper Scope)

Buffs:
Rank 7 Aspect of the Hawk
Trueshot Aura
Mark of the Wild
Hunters Mark
Rank 3 Grace of Air totem (totem spec’d)
Mongoose Potion
Mana Tide/Mana Spring
Arcane Intellect
Divine Spirit
2xLesser Mana Oils

And no misses…
Vs:

A non moving 0 armor target that just stands there and takes it like a man.

Note: For the purposes of this thread, I’m not going to include potions in the rotation. You'll see why further down.

Stats:
Marksman 5/31/15 or 0/31/20
Attack Power: 2055
Crit Rate: 32.80%

Survival 0/21/30
Attack Power: 2255
Crit Rate: 37.72%

10 Second shot rotation, 5 shots per rotation (1 Aimed shot, 1 Multi shot, 3 Auto shots), 100% hit rate:

Damage per rotation

Marksman:
Aimed Shot: (600+((2055/14)*2.8)+7+155+(13*3.4))
Multi Shot: (1.15*(150+((2055/14)*2.8)+7+155+(13*3.4)))
3 Auto Shots: (3*(((2055/14)*3.4)+7+155+(13*3.4)))
Totaling: 4215

Adding in RWS: 4426
And crits: 6313
Or: 631.3 DPS without IAoTH procs (I’m unsure as how to account for IAoTH, I previously used it as a 3.7% increase, I can’t cite the source, so feel free to correct me. And with 3.7% it comes to: 654.6 DPS. Of course, if a 0/31/20, there is no IAoTH procs, so the original value is unmodified)

Survival:
Aimed Shot: (600+((2255/14)*2.8)+7+155+(13*3.4))
Multi Shot: (150+((2255/14)*2.8)+7+155+(13*3.4))
3 Auto Shots: (3*(((2255/14)*3.4)+7+155+(13*3.4)))
Totaling: 4325

Adding in Crits: 6447
Or: 644.7 DPS

Going at Rank 6 Aimed Shot and Rank 5 Multi, with 5/5 Efficiency, will cost you 486 mana per rotation.

Given that the gear and buffs are the same, the mana regen per rotation will be the same, which is:
122 Spirit nets 117 mana per 10 second rotation
Mana Tide and Mana Spring nets 98 2/3 mana per 10 second rotation
Gear mp/5 nets 72 mana per 10 second rotation

Totaling: 288 1/3 Mana per 10 second rotation

With a mana pool of 4365, 220.7 seconds of DPS are sustainable, or 22.07 rotations.

Factoring in the cryptstalker 50 mana per crit bonus:

MM
((5)*32.8%)*50
MM build adds ~82 mana per 10 second rotation

SV
((5)*37.72%)*50
SV build adds ~94 mana per 10 second rotation

Factoring the cryptstalker mana regen into both builds:

MM:
Now has a regen of ~370 mana per rotation, making a 4365 mana pool last 376.2 seconds, or 37.62 rotations (net 116 mana use per rotation).

SV:
Now has a regen of ~382 mana per rotation, making a 4365 mana pool last 419.7 seconds, or 41.97 rotations (net 104 mana use per rotation).

Tossing in the 20 mana reduction on Multi and Aimed shot bonus as a 20 mana/5 into the equation means that neither spec is going to run out of mana soon.

I was attempting to make a point about the higher crit rate on Survival making a significant impact on the lasting power of a hunter with Cryptstalker, but even with the minimal mana buffs (2xLesser Mana Oils, Mana Tide and Mana Spring, Divine Spirit and the mana/5 on gear) the mana return on crits with that level gear is almost enough to say that hunters will not suffer from mana problems, marksman OR survival spec.

To further illustrate the point, lets say your shaman never puts down a mana spring/mana tide totem, and the great oily yeti steals all the mana oil, what then?

Mana regen (without the CS bonuses) is now ~158 mana per 10 second rotation, making a 4365 mana pool last 133.1 seconds, or 13.31 rotations.

Now factoring in the Cryptstalker 50 mana on crit return:

MM:
Mana regen is now ~240 mana per rotation, lasting 177.4 seconds or 17.74 rotations.

SV:
Mana regen is now ~252 mana per rotation, lasting 186.5 seconds or 18.65 rotations.

This does not take into account the mana reduction on multi and aimed shot, which further increases the endurance of hunter dps to the point where mana is no longer the restraining factor, but the mechanics of hunter DPS. Does survival out-DPS marksman? According to my numbers, without IAoTH, survival does, and certainly has more staying power combined with the cryptstalker bonus’s. Thoughts?

[Edit: fixed math, thanks for the catches!]

Hmm, what am I missing here?

Both builds cost the same amount of mana per rotation, 486.

Both have the same gear and buffs, and so have the same regen from those, 288, giving a net mana use per cycle of 198.

The only difference in regen is from crits, MM has 82/cycle, LR has 94, a difference of 12 mana/cycle.

how is the following true in that case:

477 - 453 == 24, not 12 mana/cycle.

And where do the 477 and 453 come from, since 288 + 94 != 477.

I'm sure i'm probably misunderstanding your post somehow, but I'm not seeing how :(

You didn't factor in RWS.

Also:

117 + 49.33 + 72 == 238.33 isn't it, not 288.33 :S

aside from the weirdness in your math i'm seeing above, I don't see the mana thing being all that relevant to DPS right now because I won't currently go OOM on any fight i'm willing to spend consumables on, and i'm barely wearing regen gear yet (just mana/5 on my CS bracers). Blessing of Wisdom + (some combination of lesser mana oil, mageblood, superior mana pots, major mana pots or dark runes) can generally save me from having to drink in any of the naxx fights so far - with some JoW, or using multiple/better regen consumables I really don't think regen will be a problem for alliance at least.

LR will likely be cheaper to play for sure, but I don't see MM doing less damage because of it.

It's surprising to me that even with TSA, the MM is 200 AP behind the SV build. Correct me if I'm wrong but to me that says LR generated 150 agility (300 AP), which would indicate you had 1k base agility (which seems very high, even buffed out the wazoo).

You have confused 2 topics together as one. The age old LRvsMM debate, and a newer crypstalker set bonus question.

Regarding mana regain. Survival spec does offer around 4-5% more crit, which would increase the 50 mana proc and regain mana slightly. However, mana regain only affects dps if you run out mid fight, and with the current raid buffs, the innate mana/5 on crypstalker, and the smart use of consumables, that 4% will not be a big factor. Attack speed could have a much bigger impact, if you were looking for a mana rush.

Survival Spec vs Marks Spec has been debated in numerous other threads. I suggest you look there for your answer regarding dps differences and more substantive theory crafting.

This thread is about mana regen...so far I have not met a fight I can't last through while using major mana potions. Therefore tsa for me, as alliance, is still a much better build with the 50 mana/crit being a nice perk.

Yes, fixed, thanks for catching it.

The point isn't to debate LRvsMM, but to quantify the benefit of the extra crit from LR/KI with the mana regen from the cryptstalker bonuses.

You're right, getting an extra attack in, increasing the actual number of shots / rotation would have a more significant impact on the mana regen from the cryptstalker bonus. How that would affect your dps from using a faster weapon/slower rotation is outside the purpose I had behind this thread.

Quick question, which has already been mentioned up top: How did the Surv build pick up +200 RAP on the Marks build? Considering the loss of TSA, this would imply that you are generating 300 AP out of LR. 300 RAP = 150 Agi. Obviously, this is not what you intended as it is both outrageously large and this would give the Surv build ~+6% crit over the Marks (with KI) and you show only a 5% difference. The 5% difference still seems a little off... you are receiving 3% from KI and 2% from... 100+ Agi? That still seems a little much to be getting out of LR, no matter how buffed you are. Your crit %s and AP seem inflated for the Surv build. You would need an Agility -mod- of 666+ (lol~) to get that much Agi out of LR.

This is not to mention, as has already been mentioned, the impact of IAotH, which is not viably spec'able from a Surv build. Obviously Surv entails more crits, and thus will make better use of the Cryptstalker 6/9 set bonus, but this mana difference will likely not compensate for the hit to damage. You may argue Surv has more utility, but in at least for the foreseeable future, it idoesn't reach the same damage level.

Survival leeching TSA is 100 AP. Interestingly enough, the marksman build had 666 Agi on it, survival with ~765.

Shown in the original post, I took IAoTH to be a 3.7% increase with a 3.0 speed weapon, which showed a higher DPS than the SV build.