Well, kinda hard to theorycraft for the expansion in this context yet since our current crit gear is scaling to 30% of what it is at 60 currently. Don't know how long it will take to get these crit rates back once we hit 70 and raid again.
Actually, the Scorch in that case will hit for approx 570 pre debuffs, which goes up to about 710 with debuffs, provided a 30 + spec in Fire. With, pre crits and all and including latency, is about, give or take, 400 DPS. If you can get some imba crits in, and it might be very well possible to have an enormous critstreak. (Just get Imp Scorch up first.)
Keep in mind this is pretty risky with concern for threat generation. If you're spamming scorch with the intent to keep ignite on a mob, there's a very high risk of having other fire mages keep your ignite train going longer than you wanted. You also run the risk of keeping someone elses ignite on the mob when they're trying to hold back.
This was my interest in the discussion. I'm not familar with mage threat/dps since the talent change. Theoretically if this worked, would mages be able to keep from pulling aggro?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another without a loss of enthusiasm."
-Sir Winston Churchill
As you can see the gear is based mostly on high end gear, some pieces may be exchanged for similar crit rating.
28.04% crit unbuffed, Minus talents.
+598 Spell Damage
Base Scorch does 254 damage on avg.
With Imp Scorch, CoE, and Firepower.
511.14*1.35=690.0 Avg Damage no Crit
690/1.5s=460DPS non Crit.
Now I think this is how you calculate Fire Crits without considering rolling Ignites.
39% Crit (no wizard oil on this one)
1.429*690=986.01 Avg Damge with Crit
986.01/1.5=657.34 DPS with Crit
Does anyone know how to factor rolling ignites into this? I'll go double check that forum with the mage spreadsheet and rolling ignite thread.
Also thank you guys above who helped solve my probality problem.
Your calculations are slightly off.
Instead of "511.14*1.35=690.0 Avg Damage no Crit" it's 511.14*1.10*1.25=702.82 Average Hit.
Firepower is calculated initially, and then once it hits the mob Imp Scorch and CoE then base themselves off the new damage.
And Fire crits, assuming a fully debuffed mob, at 219% instead of 210% since CoE and Imp Scorch pull double duty on the ignites.
1.4641*702.82=1028.99 Average damage with crit.
1028.99/1.5=685.99 DPS with crit.