disclaimer: this is my first post here on the Elitist Jerks forum, so hopefuly i don't screw anything up to badly. :P
When the BC talents first came out and everyone started talking about the possibility of shaman duel wielding, i wanted to crunch some numbers and find out how much dps a DW shaman really could do, cause god knows that kind of information isn't going to be found on the official WoW forums. So i first went to ctprofiles and tried to put together some shaman duel wield setups based on current gear. i figured that if i ran the numbers based on current gear, i could compare them to current dps classes to get a general idea of shaman DW damage potential. Initialy, my question was just simply "exactly how much can a shaman keep that new Unleashed Rage buff up?" After some quick calculations, i found that with just ~20-25% crit rate, +13% hit (from talents only), and two fast (1.6) weapons, you could easily keep the buff up more than 95% of the time. (and as much as 99% with the right setup) After seeing that it wasn't hard to reach an acceptable threshold for keeping the buff up, i went on to build a shaman DW profile optimized for dps as well as keeping the buff up. I made two profiles: one with gear from only MC/ZG and Battleground rep rewards, and the other with gear from wherever i could find it in game now, including a few AQ40/Naxx pieces.
Here is my old CTprofile page, which has these two setups as alternate profiles: http://ctprofiles.net/773844
(yes, the "main" was my old setup when i quit the game in june, so you can see how noob i was/am)
In case you just want the bottom line on the profiles:
+hit gear: 5%
+hit gear: 10%
From ctprofile, i got unbuffed attack power, crit, and +hit values to then put into the spreadsheet. Since ctprofiles doesn't allow you to duel wield as a shaman, the stats from one of the weapons had to be added in by hand. For the MC shaman, i chose a CHT for the offhand and Eskhandar's right claw for the main hand, primarly because they are fast. For the "anything goes" profile, i chose a Silithid Claw for the main hand and a Harbringer of Doom for the off hand. The HoD has some ap/crit/hit that had to be added in by hand.
I did this spreadsheet a few days before i discovered the EJ forums, so it's not nearly as pollished as the Warrior and Rogue spreadsheets i've seen here. For starters, i don't have a comprehensive gear database built in, because i don't know how to do it, and the gear choices aren't as clear-cut for shaman as they are for warriors and rogues.
The default numbers that are in the spreadsheet now are from the AQ/Naxx etc. profile, and they give a ballpark figure of ~700dps before mob armor mitigation. (Interestingly enough, the other profile gives ~525dps)
Things i attepted to accurately take into account in this model:
crit rate, miss rate, flurry, windfury, stormstrike.
I did a few calculations on mana regen from Judgement of Wisdom and found that a DW shaman would regen more than enough mana from JoW to spam stormstrike whenever it's up, and drop his totems (SoE/WF) whenever he needed to, and almost have enough left over to spam a shock every 6 seconds.
So after all this, here's my spreadsheet, which i post here for your critiques and comments. Hopefuly i didn't make any glarring mistakes in calculation. I'm posting this here because i'd love to get some feedback on all this; both as to how accurate my model is and ways to improve it, and as to the implications of it.
EDIT: it might have been premature to post this, since i don't deal with dodge/glancing hits at all, and it's still very messy-looking. i'm still in the process of reading the rogue/warrior spreadsheets and learning from them, so i'll try to keep updating this as i go.
so what's the deal? i thought the dps numbers that came out of this were pretty interesting, and would imply that 1 DW shaman in a melee group would be worth having in a raid. do people just not think this is interesting? is this old news? has this topic been debated/theorycrafted to death already? is my math too sloppy and not worth commenting on? i guess i thought this would turn some heads, at the very least.