Spell Hit, Spell Crit and mages - Page 2

Drauk · 12/22/06, 4:12 AM

Originally Posted by Kolenzo

First off, level based hit chance (ie "misses") and crits are based off the same roll.

We don't really know for sure. It was always assumed that spells use same mechanics as melee. And we had a blue post saying that melee have one roll for hit/miss/crit. But on this very board this theory was questioned for special abilities.
We do have a blue post explaining spell hit mechanics (http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/th...10271182&sid=1) but this post never mentiones spell crit. So, we really don't know for sure if spell use single roll or no.
However, it should be easy enough to test, there is lvl 69 mobs in Karazhan now. According to single roll theory all spells landed on this mobs should be crits, since they have very high level based resist against 60 lvl player.

ziggy · 12/22/06, 5:21 AM

Originally Posted by Drauk

Originally Posted by Kolenzo

First off, level based hit chance (ie "misses") and crits are based off the same roll.

We don't really know for sure. It was always assumed that spells use same mechanics as melee. And we had a blue post saying that melee have one roll for hit/miss/crit. But on this very board this theory was questioned for special abilities.
We do have a blue post explaining spell hit mechanics (http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/th...10271182&sid=1) but this post never mentiones spell crit. So, we really don't know for sure if spell use single roll or no.
However, it should be easy enough to test, there is lvl 69 mobs in Karazhan now. According to single roll theory all spells landed on this mobs should be crits, since they have very high level based resist against 60 lvl player.

A warlock friend of mine has always maintained that spells are on a two roll system (he's also a follower of Skav's theorycrafting). This is part of a combat log from some priliminary testing we did, largely to settle the arguement. Having read the logic behind the server load theory, I assumed it was one roll, but the recent proof that melee specials are two roll throws this into question.

Sallurion was a level 20 priest with 5/5 Holy Specialisation and an Onyxia buff. The Young Panther was level 30. A one roll system should have provided: 94% chance to miss, 6% chance to crit. A two roll system should have provided: 94% chance to miss, ~1.1% crit, ~ 4.9% hit.

10/21 19:35:40.125 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:43.578 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:46.375 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:49.281 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:52.093 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:55.312 Sallurion's Smite hits Young Panther for 15 Holy damage. (47 resisted)
10/21 19:35:57.937 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:36:01.062 Sallurion's Smite hits Young Panther for 15 Holy damage. (45 resisted)
10/21 19:36:03.875 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:36:07.093 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:08.218 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:11.265 Sallurion's Smite hits Young Panther for 32 Holy damage. (33 resisted)
10/21 19:37:13.828 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:19.703 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:22.437 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:25.453 Sallurion's Smite crits Young Panther for 23 Holy damage. (47 resisted)

Out of 331 casts (The agro radius of a level 20 priest in STV is rather large) we got:

303 full resists
27 partially resisted hits
1 partially resisted crit

I recognise this is by no means conclusive proof. Our sample size was really small, and it was only really done to see if crit capped out in the same way white melee does, which it didn't.

edit: I should add that this was done under 1.12.

snape · 12/22/06, 5:58 AM

Originally Posted by ziggy

10/21 19:35:40.125 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:43.578 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:46.375 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:49.281 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:52.093 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:35:55.312 Sallurion's Smite hits Young Panther for 15 Holy damage. (47 resisted)
10/21 19:35:57.937 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:36:01.062 Sallurion's Smite hits Young Panther for 15 Holy damage. (45 resisted)
10/21 19:36:03.875 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:36:07.093 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:08.218 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:11.265 Sallurion's Smite hits Young Panther for 32 Holy damage. (33 resisted)
10/21 19:37:13.828 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:19.703 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:22.437 Sallurion's Smite was resisted by Young Panther.
10/21 19:37:25.453 Sallurion's Smite crits Young Panther for 23 Holy damage. (47 resisted)

I disagree with the supposed facts of this sample. At level 20, Priest Smite does between 54-62 Holy Damage. This is what you notice in the 3 Smite hits presented here - except for the 65, but it's close enough to be believable. The partially resisted crit, however, would only have amounted to a total of 70 Holy Damage. Smite crits are 1.5x, so the base would be 46 Holy Damage, which is well outside the spell's non-crit range. Is someone pulling someone's leg, or was the data copy-pasted shoddily?

As for the "what do I go for as a Mage", I have 690 damage, 15 crit, and 11 hit (from gear alone, so about 30% crit and 14 hit with talents). I had 10% from gear before 2.0 - this was 16% with talents and that was at the hit cap...there was no reason to go for more.

Now with the EP nerf, a Mage would have to get 13% hit to be at the cap. I'm 2% away from that, and short of taking items that really aren't in my plan (and would be senseless when considering the other stats - Frostfire Belt is an example), that's the way it's going to stay. So now I'm just taking extremely small upgrades trading a few points of damage for a crit or vice versa to fine-tune the holistic picture.

I suggest that you try to get at least 10% hit, then go for a good combination of +dmg and crit.

ziggy · 12/22/06, 6:19 AM

Originally Posted by snape

I disagree with the supposed facts of this sample. At level 20, Priest Smite does between 54-62 Holy Damage. This is what you notice in the 3 Smite hits presented here - except for the 65, but it's close enough to be believable. The partially resisted crit, however, would only have amounted to a total of 70 Holy Damage. Smite crits are 1.5x, so the base would be 46 Holy Damage, which is well outside the spell's non-crit range. Is someone pulling someone's leg, or was the data copy-pasted shoddily?

Interesting. You're absolutely right, and I can't account for the discrepancy, I'd not looked at the damage range before now. Almost all of of the hit's are at the higher end of the damage range as well. I don't recall any buffs/debuffs that would have had that effect.

I'll dig around for some screenshot's later on, as well as the uneditted log.

Nal · 12/22/06, 6:27 AM

Originally Posted by Drauk

However, it should be easy enough to test, there is lvl 69 mobs in Karazhan now. According to single roll theory all spells landed on this mobs should be crits, since they have very high level based resist against 60 lvl player.

My initial testing:

With a crit rating of 182, a hit rating of 8, 3 points in elemental precision, 5 points in empowered frostbolt, and a tooltip crit % of 18.41%

rank 1 frostbolt: 77 resists, 21 hits, 1 crits
rank 11 frostbolt: 74 resists, 17 hits, 2 crits

Not enough data points obviously, but that's all I could do on short notice.

Edit: According to the blizzard resistance webpage, my chance to hit an NPC 9 levels higher than me is 17%. Also, I suspect the 182 crit rating only translates into 13% crit against level 60s. Against something level 69 I think it's something closer to 9%.

It's tempting to draw some conclusions, but not enough data yet. I'll try and collect more later on.

Kink · 12/22/06, 7:07 AM

Originally Posted by ziggy

Originally Posted by snape

I disagree with the supposed facts of this sample. At level 20, Priest Smite does between 54-62 Holy Damage. This is what you notice in the 3 Smite hits presented here - except for the 65, but it's close enough to be believable. The partially resisted crit, however, would only have amounted to a total of 70 Holy Damage. Smite crits are 1.5x, so the base would be 46 Holy Damage, which is well outside the spell's non-crit range. Is someone pulling someone's leg, or was the data copy-pasted shoddily?

Interesting. You're absolutely right, and I can't account for the discrepancy, I'd not looked at the damage range before now. Almost all of of the hit's are at the higher end of the damage range as well. I don't recall any buffs/debuffs that would have had that effect.

I'll dig around for some screenshot's later on, as well as the uneditted log.

I can offer a theory.

The crit multiplier was only applied to the NON resisted portion.

If a spell hits for 100 flat out damage, and crits for 150 and you get a 75% resisted crit you would therefore see:

Smite crits for 37.5 (75 resisted).

Totalling them gives 112.5 which makes no sense. But divide the crit portion by 1.5 and only ADD the non crit(i.e. resisted portion) and it comes out to 100.

So looking at the values your friend saw:
Sallurion's Smite crits Young Panther for 23 Holy damage. (47 resisted)

Therefore the full damage would be:

Full damage = (23/1.5)+47 = 62.333

Now factor in a couple points of +damage on his gear and the affect of that +damage with smites casting speed at lvl 20 (no clue about cast time and +damage and their interaction =) and it becomes definately possible.

But this IS guess work, it just looked logical =)

songster · 12/22/06, 8:32 AM

Doesn't that make a three roll system?

1 roll to find out hit/miss
If you hit, roll again to find out partial resists, then
Roll a third time to determine crit / non-crit

Kincaid · 12/22/06, 8:58 AM

Originally Posted by songster

Doesn't that make a three roll system?

1 roll to find out hit/miss
If you hit, roll again to find out partial resists, then
Roll a third time to determine crit / non-crit

The first roll determines resist level, whether partial or full. The second roll determines crit. This would match the proposed model for melee yellow damage on a two roll system.

Tyvi · 12/22/06, 9:06 AM

I haven't been following Mage mechanics lately, but I remember reading this:

Originally Posted by Aeus

motive has shared some details on the calculations of hit and crit chances:

part 1

The way WoW calculates crit rate is over ALL attacks. Crit rate is not based on hits only. In other words, if you have a 5% crit rate, that 5% chance includes misses.

All crit rate adjusting abilities, items, and talents add the flat % to the base % crit rate. So if I have a 5% base crit rate and then use an item or talent that increases that crit rate (let's use Improved Backstab talent for example - +30% crit), my new crit with backstab is 35%.

Regarding how defense decreases the rate of critical strikes, each point of defense that a target has over the attacker, the attacker loses 0.04% chance to crit. So, for example, if a level 60 Rogue is attacking a level 60 Warrior who has 25 defense, the rogue's crit rate will be decreased by 1%.

part 2

+toHit items subtract from your miss%.

So, ignoring all defensive actions (Block/Parry/Dodge/etc..) if I have 20% crit chance, 20% miss chance, and 60% hit chance and I equip an item that gives me +5% toHit and +5% crit, my stats become 25% crit, 15% miss chance, 60% hit chance.

New hit chance = (Original hit%) + (toHit modifiers) - (crit modifiers)
60% + 5% - 5% = 60%

New crit chance = (Original crit%) + (crit modifiers)
20% + 5% = 25%

New miss chance - (Original miss%) - (toHit modifiers)
20% - 5% = 15%

Source

Is this already outdated? Granted, he is talking about physical +Hit/Crit and not Spell Hit/Crit but I'd be surprised if things would be different for them.

Especially this part is interesting:

Originally Posted by Aeus

The way WoW calculates crit rate is over ALL attacks. Crit rate is not based on hits only. In other words, if you have a 5% crit rate, that 5% chance includes misses.

So if this is true, I'd cap my Hit first before stacking Crit. Even if that was not true, I'd go for Hit anyway. Does it really matter if your Frost Nova crits? No. Does it matter if your Frost Nova got resisted? Oh yes! On top of that CS can't even crit, but I am sure you always want CS to land regardless.

Remember: +Hit is affecting all spells minus self buffs. +Crit is affecting all your damaging abililties only.

Eylirria · 12/22/06, 9:17 AM

Originally Posted by Acustar

Personally I go for around 12-13% hit (harder for me now that Elemental Precision was changed) and the rest crit. Also remember you can't crit if you never hit so in that sense Hit > Crit.

This is almost entirely false. Crits will cut into hits and Hits will cut into misses. The only event where adding another Hit allows you to crit more often is when you are "crit-capped", but this is nearly impossible and only really applied on fights like Loatheb where you are very likely to be crit-capped due to Fungal Bloom.

Spells are believed to work on a 2-roll system, where the first roll determines whether it was a miss/crit/hit and the second roll determines damage lost due to resistances. (Binary spells are on a different single-roll system that takes into account resistances already)

Originally Posted by Acustar

Spell Penetration has been found to be useless PvE because the bosses have a certain amount of resist that isn't affected by either Hit or -Resist. I would never go out of my way to get it. Enigma is nice because it has some tossed on there. On that note, I didn't notice a difference going from NW -> Enigma. But I certainly notice if i drop some Hit.

Empirical evidence shows that mobs that are higher level than yourself have an innate chance of partially resisting spell damage that is impossible to counter. It's believed that this is somewhat related to the old spell system where you actually had to "skill up" your magical schools (ie, @level 60, you have 300 Fire spells vs 315 "Ipwnurdmg" stat on the monster) -- also, binary spells seem unaffected by this effect, it's really confusing. Just know that if you're a spellcaster that relies mainly on partially resistable spells, that you are losing ~6% overall damage due to this.

ziggy · 12/22/06, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by Eylirria

Spells are believed to work on a 2-roll system, where the first roll determines whether it was a miss/crit/hit and the second roll determines damage lost due to resistances. (Binary spells are on a different single-roll system that takes into account resistances already)

Melee special attacks were believed to be calculated using the same method as white melee, yet this was proved false. I don't think we can make the assumption any more.

If crit caps out as the chance to miss engulfs all hit, then all the casts in both my (though I concede the crit value looks unreliable, something tells me I need to test partially resisted crits. I suspect the level based act differently to the resistance based) and Nal's tests, should have had a 100% crit rate.

It's an easy test to replicate. Low level caster with an ony buff, one mob, 10 levels higher. If the crit rate is capped due to the one roll miss/hit/crit table, you shouldn't be able to land a "hit".

Desemus · 12/22/06, 11:08 AM

Loatheb would be the best place to test the 1 or 2 roll system, or would unavoidable partials distort that?

snape · 12/22/06, 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by Kink

Originally Posted by ziggy

Originally Posted by snape

I disagree with the supposed facts of this sample. At level 20, Priest Smite does between 54-62 Holy Damage. This is what you notice in the 3 Smite hits presented here - except for the 65, but it's close enough to be believable. The partially resisted crit, however, would only have amounted to a total of 70 Holy Damage. Smite crits are 1.5x, so the base would be 46 Holy Damage, which is well outside the spell's non-crit range. Is someone pulling someone's leg, or was the data copy-pasted shoddily?

Interesting. You're absolutely right, and I can't account for the discrepancy, I'd not looked at the damage range before now. Almost all of of the hit's are at the higher end of the damage range as well. I don't recall any buffs/debuffs that would have had that effect.

I'll dig around for some screenshot's later on, as well as the uneditted log.

I can offer a theory.

The crit multiplier was only applied to the NON resisted portion.

If a spell hits for 100 flat out damage, and crits for 150 and you get a 75% resisted crit you would therefore see:

Smite crits for 37.5 (75 resisted).

Totalling them gives 112.5 which makes no sense. But divide the crit portion by 1.5 and only ADD the non crit(i.e. resisted portion) and it comes out to 100.

So looking at the values your friend saw:
Sallurion's Smite crits Young Panther for 23 Holy damage. (47 resisted)

Therefore the full damage would be:

Full damage = (23/1.5)+47 = 62.333

Now factor in a couple points of +damage on his gear and the affect of that +damage with smites casting speed at lvl 20 (no clue about cast time and +damage and their interaction =) and it becomes definately possible.

But this IS guess work, it just looked logical =)

This is a nice try, but sadly it's just not right. :)

My partially resisted crits always add up to a what a real crit would have done (based on months and months of partially resisted crits in Naxx).

Eylirria · 12/22/06, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by ziggy

It's an easy test to replicate. Low level caster with an ony buff, one mob, 10 levels higher. If the crit rate is capped due to the one roll miss/hit/crit table, you shouldn't be able to land a "hit".

Very true. It's a simple test, as soon as you have the Onyxia buff down. As soon as I can get a friend to offtank some monsters for me and chain-cast for a considerable amount of time and post the results, including my own level, monster level, tooltip crit-rate, and from there we'll know the expected results and what actually happens and try and figure it out.

I guess the reason myself and most people always took 2-rolls with miss/hit/crit all being on the same roll was because of a blue post that refered to +spellhit and making direct mention of 2 rolls, but thinking more about it, I can't recall this post mentioning crit being on the same roll, which could be intentional, or just omition since the goal of that post was to clarify on the +spell hit mechanic.

On my way to Stormwind to park a level 6 mage and camp the ony buff.

Fres · 12/22/06, 11:43 AM

Originally Posted by Eylirria

somewhat related to the old spell system where you actually had to "skill up" your magical schools (ie, @level 60, you have 300 Fire spells

This is definitely related to whatever the old system was. I distinctly remember going into SFK as a lowbie after release, and getting that curse from the ghost guardsmen that randomly applied a -100 skill modified to all skills. Sometimes you would get -100 daggers, sometimes -100 Frost or Shadow. Obviously this isn't a visible part of the system now, but this is definitely how they originally envisioned it.