Ok I did a more exhaustive comparison for different weapon speeds. I chose speed ranges from 1.3 to 2.9 as that's the range currently available in-game. To compare different speeds I had to incorporate innate threat values for the abilities involved. I used numbers for rank 10 HS since rank 11 is unknown.
In all of the following scenarios, over the course of a minute, Shield Slam is used 10 times, Revenge is used 12 times, and the other 18 gcd's are used by either Devastate or Sunder or nothing.
1. HS spam, use nothing on the gcd's other than shield slam and revenge.
2. HS and sunder spam
3. HS and devastate spam
4. auto and sunder spam
5. auto and devastate spam
For TF we get the following threat values over a minute:
1. 46759
2. 54859
3. 55508
4. 38754
5. 39403
So for TF, HS and devastate spam is best, just barely beating HS and sunder spam. If rage is not unlimited, HS spam beats auto + (sunder or devastate).
Now we're going to do the following five comparisons for weapons of different speeds:
1. New weapon's HS spam vs. TF's HS spam
2. New weapon's HS + Dev vs. TF's HS + Dev
3. New weapon's HS + Sunder vs. TF's HS + Dev
4. New weapon's auto + Dev vs. TF's auto + Dev
5. New weapon's auto + Sunder vs. TF's auto + Dev
Note that we aren't comparing vs. TF's sunder because it's inferior to Devastate in each case (for TF).
Here are the results:
|---HS---| |--Auto--|
Spd HS |Dev Snd| |Dev Snd|
1.3 3 42 12 162 154
1.4 32 66 42 159 154
1.5 57 86 67 157 154
1.6 80 103 89 155 154
1.7 99 117 109 153 154
1.8 117 129 126 151 154
1.9 132 140 142 149 154
2.0 147 149 156 147 154
2.1 159 157 169 145 154
2.2 171 164 180 143 154
2.3 181 170 191 142 154
2.4 191 175 201 140 154
2.5 200 180 210 138 154
2.6 208 184 218 137 154
2.7 216 187 225 135 154
2.8 223 190 232 133 154
2.9 229 193 239 132 154
For each weapon speed, the table shows at what value of DPS a weapon will produce more threat than TF over a minute. There are some conclusions we can draw from this table.
First look at the pair of auto columns. The auto + sunder column has the same value for every weapon speed, since sunder is independent of the weapon used. Auto + dev favors slower weapons, since you need only a 132 dps 2.9 spd weapon to match TF, vs. a 162 dps 1.3 spd weapon. Looking at these two columns, you can also see that about 1.65 is the point where the devastate and sunder threat lines cross. Faster that that, sunder is better. Slower than that, devastate is better.
Next look at the pair of HS columns. 1.85 spd is about where sunder and devastate cross in this case. It's easy to see that for fast weapons, HS completely dominates as we know. I was surprised to see by just how much it dominates. As you can see from the HS-only column, at 1.3 spd, even a 3 dps weapon beats TF. 50% more HS's with its damage bonus and threat bonus far outweighs the dps difference (and even TF's procs). Here's a comparison between two 1.3 spd weapons that illustrates just how little the dps matters with HS spam:
3 dps, 1.3 spd:
HS does 405 threat on average
Total of 54886 threat over a minute (scenario 1)
80.8 dps, 1.3 spd (Searing Sunblade):
HS does 481 threat on average
Total of 60137 threat over a minute (scenario 1)
So your total threat only increases by about 10% going from a 3 dps to 80.8 dps 1.3 spd weapon.
Anyway very interesting results IMO. Happy to take suggestions for further improvements.