If the loot table for a non-token boss has say, 12 items, and he drops 6/12 with no duplicates in the 25 man version but only 2/12 in the regular version, the massive decrease in variance in the 25 man would definitely be a positive incentive to do the 25 man version, as a 1 in 2 chance of seeing a drop each week is much nicer than a 1 in 6.

On the subject of drops going to waste, remember that they are trying to introduce "re-forging" in Cataclysm. This won't make every drop viable for someone in your raid, but much less should go to waste, at least in the beginning.

I feel that there are several options to make 25s viable (or at least desirable). Bosses can drop more, stuff, not just equipment. They can drop crafting materials/recipes, maybe even epic gems. They can drop raid materials (flasks/herbs/enchanting material/primals/eternals etc...) or other items that help a guild out logistically. These aren't direct upgrades, however it could help a raid function better.

Also they can have the 25 man trash drop items that help out, but not necessarily items/upgrades. Again, epic gems, crafting materials or even something similar to the Marks of the Illidari. Something useful and helpful to a raid, without giving away mountains of purples.

There are a lot of good options listed in this thread, and all of these could be further improved by the guild talents.

Whilst we don't know much about the Guild Leveling process, or how level 80 characters will contribute. Could it be a safe assumption that a 25 man boss kill will contribute more to the leveling up process than a 10 man? This would function as another incentive.

Blizzard has said that larger guilds will not have an advantage over smaller guilds in the guild leveling process. Now when they said that they were referencing the fact that only the top performers (20 I think) from each guild would have their points counted so we don't know for sure if that applies to all aspects of the process. But with their intention of putting both paths on equal ground it's probably safe to assume that a 10man kill and a 25man kill will be worth the same amount.

As for the "top 20" presenting a disadvantage for a 10man raid guild I don't think that's necessarily the case. If only a single boss kill is counter per week it only takes a few alts doing dailies and a couple dungeons to make up the additional points a 10man raid group would need outside their 13-14 raiders. Certainly though the 25man guilds will have a lot more leeway in the guild leveling system because of the higher pool of point earners to pull from.

Once a guild has finished leveling though the whole thing becomes a non-issue.

Well, they may want to tank, but it doesn't change the numbers. The representation of tanks in 5-man random dungeon finder groups is very indicative. With an average 5 second queue time for tanks, 5 minutes for healers and 15 minutes for DPS, during the peak of the 3.3 frenzy, we can make some projections about the ratio of tanks to healers to DPS. With only a naive analysis, there looks to be 3 times as many DPS as healers, and 3 times as many healers as tanks. That is still a factor of 2 shortfall in tanks.

Your comments indicate there is a drop off from 10-man tanks to 25-man tanks. How do you think "10-man == 25-man" is going to change that? Yes, your friend will be able to switch between 10-mans and 25-mans easily once geared, but I don't think there is a gear-based drop off from 5-mans to 10-mans; I think it is skill and confidence. More 5-man tanks will get the opportunity to tank in 10-mans, but being raid-capable requires more than just opportunity.

I'm still confused at why everyone seems to think that a guild that does 10mans will lose so many members, and won't be able to support multiple 10mans. Maybe my guild is an anomaly, and I have very little experience outside of my guild, but we have probably 50 active accounts, with other people that occasionally come on. Some only PvP, some only raid 25s, some only raid 10s, and many would like to raid 25s, but schedules simply don't allow it. We go from 1 25man raid at 8:00 with several people benched (and others not able to make it), to what will likely be a 7:00, 9:00, and 11:00 10man group.

I guess what I'm asking - how big is a 'typical' 25man guild that does well (working through ICC25 hard modes)? For the past 4 years, we've been close to the member cap (currently at 470, is there still a cap?). A guild like this, I can see surviving splitting into 10mans. Maybe a guild with a core of raiders and nobody else needs to be in that top team, but with us, a lot of our members know that they're unlikely to find a better 'regular' raiding group elsewhere, even if they end up on the C team.

As for guild leveling - if you get anything useful out of it that has a tangible, non-trivial impact on your raiding or rated PvP, I would be VERY surprised if every decent guild (top 20+) quickly got everything they needed. Blizzard won't want people to feel severely disadvantaged just because they're in the #10 or #15 guild on the server.

To be more specific, I know people who will not tank 5-mans because they know they won't ever be able to tank 25-mans and get the best gear and progression. Seeing that their guild already has the raid tanking slots full (and then some) prevents them from even trying to tank 5-mans, in some cases. They see that the road ahead of them leads off a cliff, and they don't go down it. Based on some of the folks I know, increasing the number of serious tanking positions in the endgame should increase the number of people tanking 5-mans.

(Of course, YMMV, and the people I know may all be complete freaks. We'll have to see. I'm not prepared to declare disaster yet, though.)

The question with regards to flasks/gems/materials, is that it boils down to the same issue as gold - that it really isn't an incentive. Having mats drop is really the same as having gold drop, since most people would just sell whatever isn't their proffession/flask or gem type (or would save money on the AH, but same thing, really for our purposes). Most people pick their raid sizebecause of issues that are intrinsic to raiding: they love the intimacy of 10s, the extra loot ilvl of 25s, the achievements, legendaries, or whatever... (never mind for those who need no gold)

If Blizz is going to give us a carrot to form 25 man raids, they have to be raid rewards, or flashy things to impress the others in town. Unless they've got something new up their sleeve, its pretty much limited to:

Loot: whether ilvl (obvously not in Cataclysm), availablilty, or speed at which you gear up
Ease: relative ease of 25s raid difficulty vs difficulty holding together the bigger group.
Flashy rewards that you can only get via raiding 25s: legendaries, mounts, achievements, or something else that gives status (though these may be going too)

Note that Ease and Rewards are more or less at odds with each other. Flashy "raid only" mounts are great to hand out to the top 1%, but if 25s are that much easier then they can hardly be said to be given only to the elite.

Avellina makes a good point about dropping items in 25. Flasks/gold/etc are fairly devalued since gold is easy to acquire and the rest can be acquired with gold. If certain crafting mats only dropped in 25, then suddenly again 25 has gear which 10 does not - the reverse of the stated goal to have one set of gear between the two types. Rather than running 25 because it has higher iLevel loot, people are "forced" (remember, it's perception, not truth) to run 25 for the crafting mats for loot.

If 25 simply drops more crafting item A than 10man, then the ratio of drops to players present must be higher in 25 or there is still parity and no greater desire for 25.

Crafting items dropping only in 25 could also create loot schisms. If mail DPS craftable is awesome, all the hunters/shaman want it, but the plate tanking craftable sucks, tanks do not. Why do the tanks want to do the 25 just to get the crafting items for other classes? Extrapolate this across any situation where the craftable is not the ultimate item for a specific class. Remember, a lot of gearing is enlightened self-interest. And if the craftable is the ultimate item, then Mr. Moneybags can gear up just by raiding the AH appropriately - this does not support 10 or 25.

If there are fewer 25man raids (as theorized) there is less of a pool of crafting mats - slower time reaching the AH and higher demand for the items (those who previously raided 25 and had their own supply are also haunting the AH).

Making 10 and 25 "separate, but equal" is going to be no mean feat.

People who want to tank will tank. Running 5-mans is essential to tanking, as that is where you cut your teeth. The gear you get there gives you the opportunity to tank at higher levels. Imagine if you will that the the star has twisted her ankle, and the production manager comes running to you to say, "You have to go on, since only you can save the show!" You now have to say, "well, I didn't think I was going to ever go on, so I didn't learn my lines, and didn't get fitted for the dress."

People who want to dream big had better act big, or it's all just a pose. Frankly, I don't want a poser in my 10-man/25-man.

The change to uncritability in Cataclysm means that a bunch more plate/feral players will cut their teeth tanking in regular dungeons, and can gear up without the investment. Maybe it is just a case of people finding out how much fun it is to tank, and will convince themselves to go all the way. Personally, I doubt it. Tanks need to have an attitude (a good one, I hope) to go along with the skill, gear and talents.

Please don't come in at the end of a conversation and think you have followed the entire thing.

People play the game to have fun, and do what they enjoy. That is reality. Anybody who thinks that players do some kind of min-maxing of expected roles in a raid and let that guide their decision on whether to try tanking or not is disconnected from reality. 1) Anybody who is that easily swayed is unlikely to be a good tank. 2) Even not-good tanks are welcomed in random dungeons, and so far the numbers indicate that we don't get many tanks at all, perhaps 1/9th the number of DPS. That is the reality.

My point, and I do have one, is that emphasizing 10-mans will not work because we don't have the tanks to fuel the raids. The implications from that are increased competition for such tanks that will play, and increased cost assessed against failing raids because of the mutual lockout. There won't be more tanks because there are people out there who "wish" they were a tank.

In Cataclysm, we will see 15 minute queue times for random heroics for DPS, just like today. Tanks will have 5 second wait times. Just like today. The number of 10-mans progressing in content will be about the same. I suspect that the spread of progression will be larger, so there may be more 10-mans stuck earlier in the raid because they need to depend on tanks that are not as experienced or skilled.