Well, I'm beginning to regret starting this thread.
Originally Posted by Sealclubber
This thread is very entertaining for a variety of reasons.
Loot is random, you can't make assertions to the contrary because you notice an odd streak in an insignificant sampling size.
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That's exactly why I asked if others are seeing this same behavior; one guild is too small of a sample.
Originally Posted by Edghar
Generally if something looks random, it probably isn't. The same goes for the opposite. The human mind does funny things to convince you what random occurrences should look like.
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I said almost exactly that to my guildies who claimed the RNG was broken after the first 3 or 4 doubles.
Originally Posted by Irise
The chance of a double token drop is 1/3. If you get 7 consecutive double token drops then it does look suspicious, but if you consider the thousands of guilds worldwide, then indeed you would expect some guild to get 7 consecutive double token drops.
Edit: Its a very interesting probability question to ask what is the longest streak that one would expect in say 100 trials.
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I'm actually less interested in the streakiness than in the overall distribution; as I said, beyond the recent streak in general we've gotten far, far more than 33% doubles. Probably more like 90% in the last few weeks. Again, not unlikely enough to be out of the realm of possibility, which is why
I'm simply asking if other guilds are seeing the same thing. All I want is a larger sample set.