Its before modifiers.

285 innate + 50 instant damage * 0.2 = 295 before modifiers

After modifiers:
295 * 1.45 = 427.75 threat total

While I can understand the idea of wanting the threat to be applied evenly, I also feel that the way it was handled probably makes sense.

If they spread it over the whole ability, it would make it worthless for bleed immune mobs. If it's up front, the bleed is pretty worthless.

Something to question:

If the mob is NOT immune to a bleed, does it THEN spread the threat over the whole dot, where when the mob IS immune to a bleed it puts it up front?

That would be a little imbalanced, making it a little worse (possibly) for bleedable tanking, but, it would also be quite valuable to take not of.

I think that would be a lot more difficult for Blizzard to code than to have just put in the direct damage portion.

It would also mean that druids would have to use swipe on the single target during spare global cool downs for less threat than using lacerate in its current (2.0.10) version

Can anyone point me in the direction of tests proving that the talented bearform threat modifier is 1.45 rather than 1.495?

http://www.thotbott.com/s16949

The effect got changed from "Mod Threat (15)" to "Apply Flat Modifier (presumably to feral form bonus) (15)"

A Lacerate crit does double the threat output of the entire skill, less a few points. Normally landing threat for about 420, and when crit, lands threat for about 800. I've confirmed this myself out in Blasted Lands on the 60-61 elites through lacerating to two crits, then counting how much damage a friend needs to do before it peels off, then applying necessary modifiers to all damage incurred to calculate threat. Would be nice to have someone confirm though.

Lacerate threat will be hard to test with crits. The innate damage->threat ratio is 0.2 for lacerate, modified by bear form (1.3) and talents (1.15), and then you gain threat for the rage generated by the 5 rage back.

I would assume that you produce (285+(0.2*damage))*1.3*1.15 for lacerate, regardless of if it's a crit or not. If the innate threat is increased by a crit, however, it is pretty clear that swipe will never produce more threat than lacerate over an extended period. I seriously doubt that this is the case; both KTM and Omen use the above formula, with no addition for crits, and I've never seen them be wrong on threat sensitive encounters.

More testing may be needed.

One of the frequently cited disadvantages of Lacerate is that it can be fully blocked. While farming the nature elementals in Skettis, I noticed that even when Lacerate is fully blocked, it still refreshes the stack. Does this suggest that it's still applying the front-loaded threat even when it's fully blocked? Anyone have any ideas for easily testing this?

So in the highly unlikely event that you would want to DPS in Bear Form, this would also mean that maintaining a full Lacerate stack on a target would produce very little threat. Am I correct?

The static threat from Lacerate would get you 400+ threat each time you use the ability to refresh the stack.

Yes, add to that the 20% threat from the bleed damage: 427.5 + (775 * .2) = 582.5 threat total for refreshing 775 damage over 15 secs. Overall that means the equivalent of 75% damage from the renewed stack goes to threat.

So (again, in a DPS situation) renewing Lacerate is the most rage-efficient and threat-efficient move a Bear has?

Wierd.