I'm pretty new to the whole theorycrafting business but I'm interested to know how much emphasis to place +hit vs +crit, so I've drawn up some rough figures. Apologies if there are any glaring errors in these calculations.
The general concensus on these forums seems to be that white damage uses a single roll "3 outcomes" system, whereas yellow damage uses a 2 roll system.
White Damage
Assume the following (arbitrary?) base stats:
X = Number of white hits = 200
Y = Average damage per white hit = 200
Hit = 65%
Miss = 5%
Crit = 35%
Average damage per 200 white hits = 52400
[top] (Hit% * X * Y) + (Crit% * X * Y * 2 * PIbonus)
(0.65 * 200 * 200) + (0.3 * 200 * 200 * 2 * 1.1)
Adding 1% to hit:
New hit chance = (Original hit%) + (toHit modifiers) - (crit modifiers) = 65% + 1% = 66%
New crit chance = (Original crit%) + (crit modifiers) = 30%
New miss chance = (Original miss%) - (toHit modifiers) = 5% - 1% = 4%
Average damage per 200 white hits = 52800
= (0.66 * 200 * 200) + (0.3 * 200 * 200 * 2.2)
Adding 1% crit:
New hit chance = 65% - 1% = 64%
New crit chance = 30% + 1% = 31%
New miss chance = 5%
Average damage per 200 white hits = 52880
= (0.64 * 200 * 200) + (0.31 * 200 * 200 * 2.2)
From these results it looks as if, point for point, +crit adds more damage than +hit on white damage.
Yellow Damage
N = Number of Mangles = 50 = (((200sec / 2sec)* 20 energy)/40 energy)
M = Average damage per mangle = 750
Hit = 65%
Miss = 5%
Crit = 30%
1st roll:
Hit = 95%
Miss = 5%
2nd Roll If hit:
Crit = 30%
Noncrit = 70%
Average damage per 50 mangles = 48450
[top] (Hit% * NonCrit% * N * M) + (Hit% * Crit% * N * M * 2.2)
(0.95 * 0.7 * 50 * 750) + (0.95 * 0.3 * 50 * 750 * 2.2)
Adding 1% to hit :
Hit = 96%
Miss = 4%
Crit = 30%
Average damage per 50 mangles = 48960
= (0.96 * 0.7 * 50 * 750) + ( 0.96 * 0.3 * 50 * 750 * 2.2)
Adding 1% crit:
Hit = 95%
Miss = 5%
Crit = 31%
Average damage per 50 mangles = 48877.5
[top] (0.95 * 0.69 * 50 * 750) + (0.95 * 0.31 * 50 * 750 * 2.2)
From these results it looks as if, point for point, +hit adds more damage than +crit on yellow damage.
So over a 200 second cycle using only mangle and autoattack:
Total damage with no modifiers
100850
Total damage with +1% hit = 101760
Total damage with +1% crit = 101757.5
Overall it looks like +hit and +crit add the virtually the same dps point for point.
There are some obvious limitations with this model though.
- It uses only mangle to model yellow damage. Using a normal dps cycle of mangle -> shred*4 -> rip, the proportion of dps made up by yellow damage would be much greater, which would heavily favour +hit.
- It doesnt include dps gain from Primal Fury procs which would favour +crit.
- Rip cannot crit but can miss, whereby the energy used is lost.
- As far as I can tell tell, the comparison between crit and hit is completely independent of AP.
I'd be really interested to see a spreadsheet with these factors included, but I dont really have the time (or patience) to draw one up at the moment. Perhaps if noone else gets 'round to it anytime soon.